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Thread: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Economic and financial assistance, really the same thing, won't help much at all against the force of the Russian army. There has to be a counter attack, though not necessarily militarily. The Russian economy is weak and they cannot take a sustained hit for very long. Get them where they are vulnerable as well as moving forces into the area, and they will settle with the Crimea. Anything less than that and they will naturally advance.
    For the same reason that Hawaii (tourism and federal spending) and Texas (hydrocarbons and federal spending) are vulnerable economies, so is Russia. A petrostate like Putin's requires high hydrocarbon prices. Unfortunately, there's really no way we can quickly add supply to the market. What we can do however, is accelerate LNG export terminals, open up the strategic petro reserve to the Europeans, conclude negotiations with Iran to bring their oil back to the market, and reduce the amount domestically used. A significant drop in US consumption at the same time increasingly global supply should slow down Putin. Russia needs oil at over $90 a barrel to be stable. If we can knock that back to $70, we can throw a monkey wrench into his plans. I've been saying for years here that the way to destroy the regimes in Tehran, Moscow and Caracas is to kill the price of oil. Crimea is lost, we just have to accept that, but we are now faced with a choice now that is way more than simply climate change, it's regime change without firing a shot.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    From CNN:



    Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine - CNN.com

    This development is not surprising for a number of reasons:

    1. Russia has long viewed Crimea as constituting a crital national interest (naval base, majority ethnic Russian population, history).
    2. The balance of power favored Russia in moving to regain control of Crimea. Ukraine lacked the military power to impose high costs.
    3. Neither the U.S. nor Europe have sufficient interests at stake to consider military options.
    4. A military approach would be impractical under any reasonable circumstances.
    5. The costs of non-military measures are not likely to be so high relative to the gains Russia perceives it will make so as to reverse Russian policy. Russia also has capabilities of retaliating ranging from restricting access to its resources to withdrawing cooperation on major geopolitical matters e.g., Iran's nuclear program. It expects that its ability to complicate U.S. geopolitical goals will constrain the degree of U.S. economic and other non-military sanctions.
    6. Past precedent concerning Kosovo's being separated from Serbia with NATO military force playing a role during what amounted to a civil war.

    In his national address, Russian President Putin has cited a number of those factors. He did disavow intentions to become more broadly involved in Ukraine, but he has shown a willingness to act decisively where he perceives major Russian interests are at stake.

    This development also speaks anew of the need for the U.S. to develop a clear and coherent foreign policy doctrine and relearn how to engage in contingency planning (military and broader foreign policy). It needs to tighten its integration with existing NATO members so as to make clear that NATO members will be safeguarded under any circumstances, even if the use of force is required. In Asia, the U.S. needs to strengthen ties with its leading allies. Japan and South Korea need to know that American commitments to their security are reliable.

    Finally, to maintain military credibility in a world in which the balance of power is dynamic, the President and/or Congress need to abandon planned drastic cuts in military expenditures and manpower, even if that means reducing other expenditures, larger budget deficits than would otherwise be the case, or some combination of reallocated spending/larger budget deficits. Otherwise, the U.S. will be perceived as a great power, but one with declining capabilities. That outcome would rightly worry American allies. It could invite challenges to peripheral American interests by hostile actors.

    What a load of neo-con nonsense (the highlighted part).

    Talk about an over reaction to this.

    The Ukraine illegally changed governments with a coup of a legally elected (if crappy) government. And the masses are fine with that.

    Then the Crimea government overwhelmingly decides to have a referendum, which they do and they vote to join Russia (no surprise considering most Crimeans are of Russian decent PLUS the new government in Kiev had previously decided to basically ignore Russian as an official language from then on). And the west freaks out. Funny how the west thought it was wonderful when ex-Soviet republics just broke away from the crumbling SOviet Union. But it's an entirely different matter if the Crimea votes to break away from the crumbling Ukraine.
    Hypocrisy.

    But the Neo-cons use this as a pretext to start arming again...this is a dream to them; an incident that cost America nothing (except the stupid billion they 'lend' to the Ukraine) and gets the ignorant masses scared of Russia again thus justifying beating the cold war drums again. They must be in a little heaven.


    Then this OP suggests that America must 'maintain military credibility''abandon planned drastic cuts in military expenditures and manpower, even if that means reducing other expenditures, larger budget deficits than would otherwise be the case'.

    America, even with these 'drastic' cuts' will spend about 7 times what Russia does on it's military and still will be spending more then Russia, China, Japan and the U.K. combined...and this despite running a $500+ billion dollar deficit which the CBO says will start to rise again after the next FY.

    How on Earth can the U.S. need more 'military credibility' when it is hip deep in debt and yet still spends way more then Russia and China combined on their militaries? What nonsense.

    Just more Neo-con type talk...more money for military spending, more war planning, more U.S. expansion, more 'us vs. them' neuroticism.

    America is an economic mess - with stubbornly high unemployment despite huge deficits, record low interest rates and the Fed dropping helicopters of money on America...and these people just want more and more money.


    America needs to slash military spending, balance the budget, get off the Fed teat and concentrate on getting her economy strong again...not putting up posters of Reagan to masturbate to, spend like even drunker sailors then they already are and dream of the 'good ole' Cold War days.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    Are you not getting this? Moldavia, Crimea, Ukraine, Kosovo are not pawns to be played by the greater powers of the world, trading favors or benefits. That's not how it should work IF we want a civilized world. You're cynical because you hint at that. You want some entity (EU or USA )to betray Ukraine's trust in regards to Crimea in order to make a deal with Russia for some other countries to get something out of the whole crisis. This is cynical to the bone.
    Those are some of my political opinions.

    You can deal with my opinions by calling them "cynical." But I shall make you aware that you called me cynical personally in the above post?!
    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Stats come out and always show life getting better. News makes money in making you think its not.
    The Republic of Dardania is the proper name for: http://www.debatepolitics.com/europe...ification.html

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by DDD View Post
    Those are some of my political opinions.

    You can deal with my opinions by calling them "cynical." But I shall make you aware that you called me cynical personally in the above post?!
    Your political opinions are that major powers should divide the world how they see fit? Trade nations' sovereignty and independence and favors.... that seems quite cynical don't you think?

    You are what your opinions are, aren't you? Since they're cynical, I have to assume you are too.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    Your political opinions are that major powers should divide the world how they see fit? Trade nations' sovereignty and independence and favors.... that seems quite cynical don't you think?

    You are what your opinions are, aren't you? Since they're cynical, I have to assume you are too.
    Yet we deal with the topic not the person here. Now how about you take these assumptions back in a civil way?
    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Stats come out and always show life getting better. News makes money in making you think its not.
    The Republic of Dardania is the proper name for: http://www.debatepolitics.com/europe...ification.html

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    It seems a given in some quarters that Iran will side with Russia but that ain't necessarily so. If Iran can sell their oil to Europe, to make up any Russian shortfall, it would likely be welcomed.
    Mornin' Grant. And you know it. Especially the French who has Billions tied up in Iran that they are just dying to get their hands on.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Are you quite certain they weren't referring to the upcoming elections to be held on May 25 of this year?
    Yep.....they said going back to May.....not the coming Election.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by joko104 View Post
    At this point Iran would be totally nuts to not pursue its nuclear weapons program as its #1 national priority. Ukraine - potentially militarily as powerful towards Russia as Iran is in relation to the USA - gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world - - and it cost them military defeat otherwise impossible with the nukes. The result is a trillion dollars in oil, gas and natural resources have been stolen from them, their most critical defensive territory taken, and their now perpetually in economic dependency on Russia.

    There is no deal we can make with Iran since it is known that deals made with the USA, the EU or anyone else are absolutely worthless and basically just trickery. A rational view of Iran for what has happened to Ukraine is to believe "we're next without nuclear weapons."
    I disagree in strongest terms that Iran would be nuts NOT to pursue a nuclear weapons program at this point. Actually the total opposite is true, i.e., they would be totally nuts if they did. Why? Because right when they are trying to make an agreement that would relieve their almost dead economy of crippling sanctions, they would be doing the thing that with absolutely make the sanctions worse and practically ruin them. Not only that, but it would be the perfect excuse for the United States to make for a military strike against Iran. Not only that, but if they actually were doing that, the United States could make a very strong case, that it was time for an all out invasion of Iran. So no, IRAN WOULD BE NUTS TO MAKE A NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM A NUMBER 1 PRIORITY.

    The thing is this, the first place Russia is going is to Iran now. They are going to try to mend the fences after they threw Iran under the bus and left them at the mercy of the US. The US needs to go in, make an attractive offer to Iran, and let them know that they would be better off by siding with the US. The US should make it clear that if only Iran does not pursue the development of nuclear weapons, and refrains from attacking US interests, that the US has no reason to regard Iran as an enemy and would rather have friendly relations with them. The US could use the energy, Iran could use the money and US technical assistance. It's a win win for both sides. Then perhaps, after that fence has been mended the US could work towards the goal of persuading Iran to use it's considerable influence with Syria to convince them to get rid of the Russian base in Syria. This would be a very big setback for Russia as their ability to project power into the Middle East, and also into the Mediterranean and therefore Europe, would be extremely eroded.

    Therefore the US needs to go through Iran to effectively get to Russia.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    What you said you would like to see is this



    In order to do that, it's going to require spending at least at current levels, which all total is about one trillion dollars. The US simply can't afford that. It's not going to be possible to maintain, for the reasons I mentioned.



    The US and Saudi Arabia have significant differences in the way they view Israel. It doesn't stop the US from working constructively the Saudi Arabia. The will to do it has to be there. Moreover, I think the US may be able to exploit the fact that Russia essentially threw Iran under the bus not to long ago to accommodate the US. If the deal is right, Iran may be persuaded that they have a better future with the US rather than Russia.
    Defense spending has two components:

    1) Annual appropriations
    2) Supplemental appropriations that have been adopted to fund war efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and provide for other special needs.

    The large cuts I cited are cuts in the annual appropriations. Annual appropriations came to nearly $600 billion in FY2013. I favor reduced cuts in that spending.

    Supplemental appropriations can and should be reduced as the war efforts and related activities are wound down in Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    What a load of neo-con nonsense (the highlighted part).
    The neoconservative foreign policy advocates using power as an instrument to expand democracy, liberal values, etc. Calls for U.S. military intervention in Syria's sectarian conflict reflected neoconservative goals.

    I'm not advocating anything like that. In fact, I repeatedly opposed U.S. military intervention in Syria and Libya, as no meaningful U.S. interests were involved.

    My focus is not expanding U.S. military guarantees to non-NATO members and I don't support expansion of NATO. Instead, I believe there should be greater security cooperation and integration among existing NATO members. Moreover, I'm suggesting that it would be better for U.S. military strength to be maintained near current levels rathern than slashed to pre-WW II levels in some areas. I am not calling for any kind of new arms race, though I believe the ongoing managed retreat from space-related R&D is short-sighted.

    Finally, I favor medium-term fiscal consolidation. That effort cannot fall mainly or wholly on the Defense budget. Mandatory spending programs will need to be reformed to become fiscally sustainable. Some degree of tax hikes will likely also be needed to bridge financing gaps.

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