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Thread: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

  1. #31
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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    This may be true but two facts would remain - 1. Russia would be unable to build the necessary infrastructure to supply Crimea in a short period of time - the suffering and inconvenience experienced by those on Crimea may make them think twice about where their future security lies. 2. Those pro-Ukraine elements on Crimea would gladly, I believe, suffer some inconvenience in the hope that the situation may reverse itself in time and Crimea would move to reestablish connection with Ukraine.
    Really? I wouldn't be so sure about point #2. The pro-ukranians aren't radicalized. You don't see them riding motorcycles and intimidating voters. So... I don't know if that's true.
    But #1 is true. And that is happening as we speak. It's not hard to make a few new pipelines.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Its not.....that's why I gave you the link. It wont help for the Ukraine nor the EU. Which to me sure if we can sell them something that's okay. But its not going to be able to make up anything for what they get thru Russia now. That's even with the EU looking to find away around it. I think you are correct in what Putin has been pulling in with resources. Even when other defense analysts talk about how he has been underestimated. I don't see how it isn't clear enough for some to see. This was from Post 14 too.


    According to one independent analysis being studied by the Kremlin and reviewed by The Daily Beast, such measures could be a drag on the Russian economy over time and an embarrassment for the Russian government, but would only be an “inconvenience” for the Russian economy in the near term. More drastic measures would include going after Russia’s ability to interact in global financial markets, which the analysis calls “disruptive,” and restrictions on Russian energy exports or trade sanctions, which the analysis says would be “catastrophic.”

    The analysis by Macro-Advisory, an investment firm operating in Russia, predicts that the West, especially European countries, will not move to impose “disruptive” or “catastrophic” sanctions on Russia until Putin crosses another red line, such as the outright invasion of Ukraine.

    “The key risk [for Russia] is Stage 3, i.e. a ban or restrictions on Russia’s interaction in global financial markets and/or any selected restrictions on trade or investment with Russia,” the report stated. “Investors assume that Stage 4 [catastrophic] sanctions are not yet on the agenda simply because these would also have a negative contagion to several EU countries, and many high-profile companies, as well as indirectly on the global economy.”.....snip~
    The best solution is to develop Ukraines huge oil/gas fields in eastern Ukraine. Cheveron and Exxon were about to sign a deal to do just that but then the protests broke out and I didn't hear anymore about it. If Ukraine had its own oil/gas supply it could become more independent. But that isn't an instant fix because it could still take a few years.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    Really? I wouldn't be so sure about point #2. The pro-ukranians aren't radicalized. You don't see them riding motorcycles and intimidating voters. So... I don't know if that's true.
    But #1 is true. And that is happening as we speak. It's not hard to make a few new pipelines.
    Fair enough - I wasn't suggesting that the pro-Ukrainian elements on Crimea were radicalized - they don't have to be - they just have to accept a little short term pain for long term gain - people in Eastern Europe have a long history of suffering for a greater good.

    I suppose building pipelines in Russia/Crimea may be easy - certainly easier than building them in the US
    "Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views." William F. Buckley Jr.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Even when Putin takes Eastern Ukraine, Exxon will still develop the oil/gas fields.
    Exxon CEO Tillerson is one of Putin's best buds .
    Quote Originally Posted by Moot View Post
    The best solution is to develop Ukraines huge oil/gas fields in eastern Ukraine. Cheveron and Exxon were about to sign a deal to do just that but then the protests broke out and I didn't hear anymore about it. If Ukraine had its own oil/gas supply it could become more independent. But that isn't an instant fix because it could still take a few years.
    Physics is Phun

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    It seems that if the US President Monroe could effectively lay claim to the area surrounding the US, creating the Monroe Doctrine, then Putin and Russia are equally entitled to lay claim to Crimea and other countries in their geographical area. As far as that goes, might makes right.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by NIMBY View Post
    Even when Putin takes Eastern Ukraine, Exxon will still develop the oil/gas fields.
    Exxon CEO Tillerson is one of Putin's best buds .
    Putin said Russia has no intention in taking eastern Ukraine.....unless the ethnic russians are attacked. For it's part, Ukraine parliment voted to over turn a law banning the russian language and moderate leaders are trying to soften the far right nationalists image and warning Right Sector to behave themselves so as not to give Putin an excuse for invading. If push comes to shove, they want to make it look like Russia is the aggressor.
    Last edited by Moot; 03-18-14 at 05:31 PM.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Henry David View Post
    It seems that if the US President Monroe could effectively lay claim to the area surrounding the US, creating the Monroe Doctrine, then Putin and Russia are equally entitled to lay claim to Crimea and other countries in their geographical area. As far as that goes, might makes right.
    How do you think we got Texas?

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Mexico didn't like that very much.
    The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected.
    -GK Chesterton

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I don't think it is unreasonable to ask Japan and Europe to make a larger contribution to their defensive capabilities, but that does not mean that the forthcoming cuts in defense spending are aligned with the evolving security environment. If one examines the projected spending over the next 5 years, Defense is slated to be reduced an average of 1.8% per year in nominal dollars and 3.2% in real (after inflation) dollars assuming that the abnormally low inflation rate of the last five years continues. U.S. nominal and real GDP are both projected to continue to grow, meaning that the U.S. will be spending less on defense per dollar of GDP. After 5 years, U.S. defense spending will have decreased approximately 17% in real terms.

    Can one reasonably argue that the world will have become comparably safer five years from now to justify such a reduction? Can one maintain U.S. power will have remained essentially stable relative to the world at large in which China will likely have increased its own military spending by 10% or more each year (published figure) and Russia will have carried through with additional significant investments in modernizing its conventional and nuclear forces?

    In the longer-term, that growing disinvestment in U.S. defense spending relative to the rest of the world could erode the present U.S. technological military edge. For example, with China and Russia actively investing in hypersonic jet and space-related research, even as the U.S. is currently maintaining a managed retreat from both areas, would there be implications were either one of those countries to achieve a qualitative breakthrough in some of that technology? For instance, would the military balance of power shift if one of those countries achieved a breakthrough in developing a hypersonic fighter jet (not likely in 5 years but something that can't be written off in the medium term, much less beyond)?

    The above longer-term discussion is more speculation right now. The slowly shifting balance of power in a multipolar world is current reality. Ignoring it creates longer-term risks. Furthermore, addressing it does not require the U.S. to embrace radical measures that would lead to fiscal ruin. It does not require spending levels relative to revenue and/or GDP consistent with the Cold War or a perpetual war footing. In addition, to reduce or avoid less than necessary expenditures, the U.S. could refrain from intervening militarily in areas where critical American interests or strategic allies are not at risk. Examples would including refraining from playing any military role in Syria's civil war (the U.S. wisely backed off military intervention there), not having gotten involved in Libya's civil war, having maintained the prior deterrence regime against Iraq, etc. Deterrence is far less expensive than the costs of war (human, financial, and economic), but deterrence requires sufficient power, a willingness to use it when critical interests/allies are threatened, and a would-be adversary's clear understanding of a nation's power and willingness to use it.

    Prudent defense policy cannot be tied solely to a nation's domestic desires, even as it might be tempting to turn inward. Instead, its defense posture needs to be consistent with the security environment that confronts it. In that environment, careful attention should be given to the requirements of protecting its critical interests and strategic allies and maintaining a balance of power to deter would be aggression against its interests, strategic allies, and itself. Afterward, financing should be consistent with its long-run economic capacity. Sources of defense funds would depend on its level of taxation, ability to reallocate existing spending to make its fiscal policy more consistent with the nation's priorities, and leveraging possible opportunities for savings from efficiency, etc. Alliances and partnerships can also magnify its hard and soft power.
    Come on. We spend profoundly so much more on defense than the next two powers, you can't possibly tell me that we can't cut back and still remain enough ahead for the time being. Well, actually, maybe you can but I would like to hear what you have to say.

    It seems to me that our posture of having to spend such an incredible amount is a paranoid one. I have not tied our defense policy "solely to domestic desires". However, spending as much as we are cannot be sustained if we slip economically. And stubbornly trying to do so, no matter what the security environment, will certainly lead to economic decline that results in our being even less able to do so. Domestic strength is the foundation of military strength, and if we must choose between them at this point, it should be domestic first.

    In the long term, being capable of maintaining World military supremacy is not a given.

    Looking at the demographics, it may very well be that the future "natural" order of things is that China will one day surpass us in power. There may be nothing we can do about it without bankrupting ourselves. It seems to me that Empires which have failed to see that their sun is setting and thereby failed to yield to and manage it have imploded more completely than those that were more perceptive.
    You can never be safe from a government that can keep you completely safe from each other and the world. You must choose.

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    Re: Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

    Dezaad and donsutherland: both great posts and points.
    The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected.
    -GK Chesterton

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