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Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:
From the title page:
A Minimal Model for Human and NatureInteraction
Safa Motesharrei
School of Public Policy
University of Maryland
Jorge Rivas
Department of Political Science
University of Minnesota
Eugenia Kalnay
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Maryland
November 13, 2012
Abstract
There are widespread concerns that current trends in population and resource-use areunsustainable, but the possibilities of an overshoot and collapse remain unclear and contro-versial. Collapses have occurred frequently in the past five thousand years, and are oftenfollowed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Many different nat-ural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a generalexplanation remains elusive. Two important features seem to appear across societies thathave collapsed: (1) Ecological Strain and (2) Economic Stratification.
In this paper, the structure of a new model and several simulated scenarios that offersignificant implications are explained. The model has just four equations that describe theevolution of the populations of Elites and Commoners, Nature, and accumulated Wealth.Mechanisms leading to collapse are discussed and the measure “Carrying Capacity” is devel-oped and defined. The model suggests that the estimation of Carrying Capacity is a practicalmeans for early detection of a collapse. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach asteady state at the maximum carrying capacity, if the rate of depletion of nature is reducedto a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed equitably.
Sorry, it must be at your end as it works if I click on it, so does the first one that was posted. Try later...Faulty link, at least on my end.
From the title page:
A Minimal Model for Human and NatureInteraction
Safa Motesharrei
School of Public Policy
University of Maryland
Jorge Rivas
Department of Political Science
University of Minnesota
Eugenia Kalnay
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
University of Maryland
November 13, 2012
Abstract
There are widespread concerns that current trends in population and resource-use areunsustainable, but the possibilities of an overshoot and collapse remain unclear and contro-versial. Collapses have occurred frequently in the past five thousand years, and are oftenfollowed by centuries of economic, intellectual, and population decline. Many different nat-ural and social phenomena have been invoked to explain specific collapses, but a generalexplanation remains elusive. Two important features seem to appear across societies thathave collapsed: (1) Ecological Strain and (2) Economic Stratification.
In this paper, the structure of a new model and several simulated scenarios that offersignificant implications are explained. The model has just four equations that describe theevolution of the populations of Elites and Commoners, Nature, and accumulated Wealth.Mechanisms leading to collapse are discussed and the measure “Carrying Capacity” is devel-oped and defined. The model suggests that the estimation of Carrying Capacity is a practicalmeans for early detection of a collapse. Collapse can be avoided, and population can reach asteady state at the maximum carrying capacity, if the rate of depletion of nature is reducedto a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed equitably.