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Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:76]

Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

sawdust said:
It's time to kick them out of the social sciences
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They are not in social sciences. Did you read the study? How about at least the title page?
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

ReformCollege said:
To answer your question then, the problem with their methodology is that it cannot suggest when civilization would collapse and it definitely cannot suggest that it will happen anytime soon
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So the bottom line is that you can to cite specific flaws only your dislike.

Their conclusion itself reads much like a social theory paper, and thus makes me question if that was the conclusion they originally started with.

The article even says that "collapse theories are considered fringe" and presents two other pieces of work that use the exact same methodology with much much less drastic conclusions.
It's right in the OP.
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You misunderstood not only the study but its purpose. It was not meant to be a crystal ball and predict events and the time when they will take place. Any one with a bit of common sense and a basic knowledge of history can conclude that civilizations or segments of, and social orders came into existence and if they were viable they rose, reached an apex and then declined. What was in question is the existence of common causes considering the various time frames in history and their specific socio-economic conditions. The mathematical modeling used in this study found the common causes that transcend the various times and particular conditions and concluded that under current trends the collapse of the present system is also possible to a high degree.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

jmotivator said:
Because if there is one organization I really on fully in matters of financial and geopolitical economic forecasting, it's NASA.
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Did you read the study. Please do so so at least the title page, so total ignorance will not be so apparent in your post.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville said:
for those wondering, the headline from the Guardian does appear to be a bit off, the study may have received some funding from NASA but the organisation behind the study is another group - The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC)

The paper may be found here
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Wow the left will Politicize just about everything.

Nothings off limits is it ?

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is now doing studies on " equality " or lack there of ?

LOL !!
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

DVSentinel said:
Single family dwelling, that may be true. But it does pay for housing. They get and deserve what they earn, nothing more. If that is a mat in a flop house, oh well, they should do something to improve themselves. If they are too lazy to, then they get what they earn.

And it does, in many areas. Thats 1160+ a month which is less than the average for housing in almost every town in Texas and other states.
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Sure, if you don't plan on eating.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

It should be a call to advance fusion energy, simply for the scale economies achievable by it.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

prometeus said:
So the bottom line is that you can to cite specific flaws only your dislike.

You misunderstood not only the study but its purpose. It was not meant to be a crystal ball and predict events and the time when they will take place. Any one with a bit of common sense and a basic knowledge of history can conclude that civilizations or segments of, and social orders came into existence and if they were viable they rose, reached an apex and then declined. What was in question is the existence of common causes considering the various time frames in history and their specific socio-economic conditions. The mathematical modeling used in this study found the common causes that transcend the various times and particular conditions and concluded that under current trends the collapse of the present system is also possible to a high degree.
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Yawn. This is not news. Why do people get all quivery when someone does a "study"? It's almost as if the heralds of global warming aren't doing the trick sufficiently.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville said:
Just a 'few' items in this story to stir up discussion



Items to discuss

" high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources"

under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid."

how do we humans " reduce economic inequality" and also find a way " to dramatically reduce resource consumption "??

work by KPMG and the UK's Government Office for Science shows that resource exploitation could create a "perfect storm" of civilisational-ending crises by 2030.
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This seems to be just more evidence of the politicization of NASA, rather than them focusing on their mission like they should.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

ttwtt78640 said:
The NASA mission has now morphed from running the national space shuttle service to conducting income inequality studies? It may be time to defund this bunch of "experts".
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Write your congressman or congress-person.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Fenton said:
Wow the left will Politicize just about everything.

Nothings off limits is it ?

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is now doing studies on " equality " or lack there of ?

LOL !!
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Liberals can't do what CONS do? double standard.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

I believe we can always use better aqueducts and even (high speed rail) roads.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Industry is not the problem, but the growth model of economy. The model is the reason why we have over consumption, too many people, vast destruction of irreplaceable swaths of biosphere, increase in diseases like cancer, etc.

We're living in a post-colonial, post-christian world that is still reeling from centuries of the philosophy of dominion over nature and that the world needs "saving" with our values, by might if necessary. I think the western world is in a unique position to learn from its mistakes and start preaching equality with nature, but places like Asia? Forget it. Humanity is doomed.

It's really disheartening to see the destruction humans are wreaking on this planet, but I'm not totally concerned because the biosphere is going to correct us eventually. For all our technology, we cannot keep up with the exponential appearance of new problems that our collective way of life is creating. We don't have viable space travel or extra-planetary colonization techniques. We can't escape the karma we've created on this planet for ourselves. The consequences will be reaped. Until then, people will live in ideological la la land about whatever they choose, until reality comes crashing down.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Somerville said:
for those wondering, the headline from the Guardian does appear to be a bit off, the study may have received some funding from NASA but the organisation behind the study is another group - The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC)

The paper may be found here
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Anyone have a working link?

This is really strange. I have no doubt that some of you have accessed this document, but the OP article doesn't give a link to it, Somerville's UM link is dead, and the SESYNC home page makes no reference to it that I can see. There publications section doesn't show it.
 
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Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

prometeus said:
They are not in social sciences. Did you read the study? How about at least the title page?
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No, I read he article and the article cited archeological and paleoanthropological studies as a basis for it's conclusion that advanced civilizations can collapse. Archeology and paleoanthropology are both social sciences. I hope this helps you.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

Hah, this is all so absurd the deeper I look into it. You have to love the closer for the OP scary story:

"Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more empirically-focused studies - by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative. "

So many weasel words. What is "Empiracally focused", and why are we caring about the new "study" if it isn't empirical?

The KPMG link is to a graphic that says, essentially, that a growing middle class will be more demanding on what it wants to eat--> ??? --> end of the world!

So KPMG graphic is based on assumptions, and doesn't come to the same "Income Inequality" conclusion that he other study supposedly comes to... but it says the world will end (for different reasons) in 2030, so they support one another? This is bulls**t. Pure, unadulterated bulls**t.

The UK government makes the same claim that a growing affluence will doom us all (rather than income inequality), and then beats the climate change and ocean acidification drum for good measure.

You people who believe this crap feel free to lead the way by showing us how willing you are to give up your western civilization in favor of a more austere lifestyle. And good luck with that.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

ReformCollege said:
Yes, yes it is.
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Yup, it may be 10 days from now, it may be 100 years, but eventually they naysayers will be right.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

By any chance, does anyone have a link to the study? I could not find it on the NASA site.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

sawdust said:
No, I read he article and the article cited archeological and paleoanthropological studies as a basis for it's conclusion that advanced civilizations can collapse. Archeology and paleoanthropology are both social sciences. I hope this helps you.
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No, I needed no help as I took the effort to find out what was at play. You on the other hand failed even to understand the article so if help is needed it is needed by you.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

prometeus said:
Link to the study:
http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~ekalnay/pubs/handy-paper-for-submission-2.pdf
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Your link doesn't work however if the article from the guardian is correct in this assessment"
Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."
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And if this quotation is correct,
"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."
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Then social sciences have indeed payed a role in the study.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

prometeus said:
So the bottom line is that you can to cite specific flaws only your dislike.

You misunderstood not only the study but its purpose. It was not meant to be a crystal ball and predict events and the time when they will take place. Any one with a bit of common sense and a basic knowledge of history can conclude that civilizations or segments of, and social orders came into existence and if they were viable they rose, reached an apex and then declined. What was in question is the existence of common causes considering the various time frames in history and their specific socio-economic conditions. The mathematical modeling used in this study found the common causes that transcend the various times and particular conditions and concluded that under current trends the collapse of the present system is also possible to a high degree.
Click to expand...

Well this is the fourth time I have tried to respond to this post, considering DP is doing everything in its power to make sure that my post not only will not go through but will be lost in the process so excuse me if this is far more brief then I intended.

A mathematical model is only as good as the variables it is based on. Considering the 5 variables that they examined for this study are highly speculative in the sense that it is impossible to know when and/or if any of them will ever reach a tipping point, it can be intelligently and reasonably deduced that any conclusion based on said variables would be highly speculative as well.

They simply cannot say that a collapse of the current system is possible or even likely in the near future. In order to accomplish such a statement, it requires the assumption that each of these variables A. has a tipping point and B. technology won't be able to alleviate said concerns as it has been doing for the last two or so centuries. Hence why studies of this nature are considered "fringe," as it stated in the OP.
 
Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

sawdust said:
Your link doesn't work however if the article from the guardian is correct in this assessment"

And if this quotation is correct,

Then social sciences have indeed payed a role in the study.
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It says its right in the article.
The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.
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Not to mention the journal they mention is an "interdisciplinary" journal *cough cough* social science.
 
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