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Thread: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:76]

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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by Soupnazi630 View Post
    Been done.

    Primitive peoples lived within the means of their environment and lived in misery.
    Not really true.

    Lives were short, but that was mainly parasites and disease.

    On average, primitive people worked about 20 hours a week.

    Original affluent society - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Just wiki, but i've read a lot on the subject over the years.

    People in resource rich areas work less, those in less rich ateas more, but the whole "nasty, brutish and short" was salve for colonialists consciences. Not objective 7ruth.
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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by What if...? View Post
    We'll see.Profit motive may work, may not.
    There are not many times you can point to where it didn't work, or where people tried to make it work. Money is the greatest motivator.

    Bet money that it will be done in a way that makes only a few rich.
    And that is a bad thing? How many people have become rich working for the government, apart from corruption? Private enterprise keeps tax dollars safe, unless crony capitalism is involved.

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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    It is really astounding that the best counter arguments are really nothing more than ignorant partisan talking points or outright fabrications.
    Why can't anyone offer a criticism or counterarguments based on the merits or lack of, of the study or the opposite, the merits of overconsumption and large economic inequality? After all 'let them eat cake' has world so well in the past.

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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by DVSentinel View Post
    Really? So we don't have an International Space Station? NASA has not in the past launched maned space flights? We didn't travel to the moon? For there being no way off this rock, we seem to have had quite a few who left it for a short time.
    Water and gravity on the moon.

    Pretty clear thats our stepping stone.
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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by Soupnazi630 View Post
    Ok I should have been more specific.

    There is no permanent way off of this rock.

    No technology can get us to another world to live on which was the point ofthe discussion. We are centuries if not millenis away from such technological ability.

    Going into orbit is meaningless to this end
    Do you assume we need an earthlike planet to move out of the gravity well?

    Energy is ridiculously abundant in space, and the moon has water (oxygen/fuel) and gravity (to slow bone loss)

    And 100,000 years of raw materials at projected growth rates in the asteroid belt.

    Doesn't seem "impossible" to me.
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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by Napoleon View Post
    The moon is a very useful thing. It's gravitation force stabilizes the Earth's orbit around the sun, gives us oceanic tides, and serves as a middleman between us and some potentially dangerous comets and asteroids. People should think about that before reducing its mass or otherwise ripping chunks out of it to harvest materials. Personally, I don't think we should be playing around with the moons in our solar system unless you're talking about something like harvesting methane from Titan.
    You realize that the level of exploitation would have to be on a nearly miraculous level to have an actual substantive impact on the mass of a celestial body like the moon right? This isn't really a serious concern.

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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    I finally had a chance to read the 2012 version of the report. Several quick things:

    1. I'm not sure where the article cited at the beginning of the thread reaches the idea that a civilizational collapse could occur "in coming decades." The report provides no such specificity.
    2. The study examines a number of scenarios that concern an egalitarian society, equitable society (with workers/non-workers), and an unequal society (elites and commoners) at different levels of depletion and wealth.
    3. Almost all of the outcomes, particularly those in unequal societies, eventually lead to some kind of collapse according to the mathematical model that is utilized. Reduced birth rates and depletion rates can promote equilibrium in unequal societies according to the model.
    4. The study suggests that wealth stratification temporarily buffers the elites from an unfolding crisis, hence even as commoners begin 'dying out,' the elites continue a "business as usual" approach. The authors suggest that this dynamic might explain why the elites were seemingly oblivious to the unfolding catastrophes that culiminated in the collapse of the Roman Empire and Mayan case.

    Several points and caveats are relevant:

    1. The study cites past literature that finds resource depletion (Type I) and/or extreme wealth inequality (Type II) were present in the numerous cases where societies had collapsed. Hence, it breaks no new ground in tying ecological stress or wealth stratification to societal collapse.
    2. The study assumes that elites "prey" on the production of commoners. This idea would assume that whatever value is added from management e.g., efficiencies in organizing production, is exceeded by the additional consumption of the elites. If the gap is smaller, then the overall depletion rate variable used in the model would also be smaller, and any societal collapse would take longer to occur or perhaps even be avoided.
    3. The study's model does not distinguish between nonrenewable resources, renewable resources, and flows (wind, solar, etc.). Hence, the depletion variable is coarse. Future versions of the model will attempt to do so and that could have a significant impact on the outcomes.
    4. The study notes that technological change can increase efficiency of resource use, but also raise per capita resource consumption. Currently, the study treated the relationship as a wash, but notes that rates could be adjusted in either direction in the future in a subsequent version of the model. Any adjustments will impact the depletion rate and, therefore, have a potentially large impact on the outcomes.

    Finally, my guess concerning the cited article's timeline: The article probably took the unequal society/full collapse scenario. started the clock around 1750-1800 (around the start of the industrial revolution). Using that scenario, resource depletion would exceed regeneration and fall below the carrying capacity in the 1950-2050 timeframe. Once that happened, wealth would begin to decline. Afterward (perhaps a century later according to the model), the population of commoners would decline leading to faster declines in wealth. Perhaps 50 years later, the population of elites would decline and perhaps a century later the societal collapse would be complete (circa 2250-2300).

    IMO, the article's interpretation detracts from the more serious work of the study by embracing one scenario among many when there is uncertainty concerning some of the inputs to the model. The study's conclusion that most scenarios would inevitably lead to collapse is not the same thing as forecasting the imminent start of a collapse scenario, much less a total collapse one.

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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by Somerville View Post
    how do we humans " reduce economic inequality" and also find a way " to dramatically reduce resource consumption "??
    I believe the best way to reduce economic inequality and resource consumption is through land dues (land value 'tax') and a citizens dividend. The LVT ensures land is allocated more fairly (I believe site privatization to be the root of all poverty). A citizens dividend ensures the wealth of the Commons is distributed to all citizens, not just a privileged few.

    Citizen's dividend - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Land value tax - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Unfortunately, we are unlikely to take the necessary steps towards a more sustainable world. The elites would prefer to drive this world into the ground before they let that happen.
    "Men did not make the earth ... it is the value of the improvement only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property... Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds." -- Thomas Paine, Agrarian Justice
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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by DVSentinel View Post
    [/B]

    Or we need to be finding a way off this rock. BTW, isn't that what NASA is supposed to be studying?
    Well let's see, NASA is in charge of studying the planets... what is Earth again? Are you saying they should be looking for life on other planets, but study on the sustainability of life on our own?
    "Men did not make the earth ... it is the value of the improvement only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property... Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds." -- Thomas Paine, Agrarian Justice
    http://www.wealthandwant.com/

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    Re: Nasa-funded study: industrial civilisation headed for 'irreversible collapse'?[W:

    Quote Originally Posted by DVSentinel View Post
    Oops. Hate when that happens. Let them reap what the have sown. Die, if that is all they earn for themselves.
    Ah, the old "they are poor because it was their choice" argument. Sorry, it is not that simplistic.
    "Men did not make the earth ... it is the value of the improvement only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property... Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds." -- Thomas Paine, Agrarian Justice
    http://www.wealthandwant.com/

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