Page 9 of 11 FirstFirst ... 7891011 LastLast
Results 81 to 90 of 106

Thread: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

  1. #81
    Sage
    OldWorldOrder's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    10-12-15 @ 12:13 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    5,820

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Because in this particular case, Russia's defense of their interests is in response to the violent overthrow of the Ukrainian government destabilising a country on their border. I disagree that this is an act of aggression as Western media depicts. Particularly sense there was Western intervention that spurred the protests to begin with. Even Kissinger which I hate to quote, said that the demonisation of Putin as Hitler is an alibi for no policy. And most obviously, Putin didn't come in guns and bombs ablaze killing people and destroying property, it is a security measure.
    Okay that's why you defend that (but seriously lol at the idea that Western intervention spurred the protests). But the US also does things as security measures. And when it does, you don't support it.

    You're just wildly inconsistent. Like you vilify the Western media while you support RT, which is literally owned by the Russian government and commonly considered a mouthpiece for the Kremlin.

    If you want to be anti-authority and "Down with the Man!" that's fine- hilarious, but fine. But be consistent.
    The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected.
    -GK Chesterton

  2. #82
    Sage

    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    okla-freakin-homa
    Last Seen
    Today @ 01:22 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Progressive
    Posts
    12,623

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by OldWorldOrder View Post
    lol are we going to be rude? Fun, I like that better. No one ever said or implied you did. What a horribly "faulty observation", that led you down a "false argument trail". Weird that you even came to that, but try to focus, I don't have time to be a teacher. Who the **** is "we"? Are you talking about Americans or the American government. Please define your terms, otherwise you're wasting everyone's time. Is it? That's impressive that you're so able to readily define national interests, usually that's, ya know, a full time job. Why are you telling me this? Do you think I didn't know? Do you think it has anything to do with what I said? ...what is this? Why did you just tell me something I've known for years? What does this have to do with what I said? Can you focus? What on earth does this have to do with what I said? I don't understand how people who think they're intelligent can pretend that they don't understand a nation acting in its self-interest. It's in the US' self-interest to support when the US does an action and vilify when a country the US doesn't like does the very same action. Because the US- like any other nation- acts in its self-interest. Not according to some objective rules about what's right or not. What's "right" to any given nation is what supports its self-interest. Stop talking about this to me. It's not the subject of what I posted. The subject is how you seem to not understand that the US will support things you don't like if it furthers US interests. It will oppose the same thing if it is against US interests. You apparently don't get that, since you mentioned the things you did. You don't understand it. I really don't think you even understand what I was saying. Clearly. No one asked for a history lesson on Ukraine. You didn't tell me anything I didn't know. Not sure why you told me- did you just want to type something this morning? Focus or stop replying.
    Let the fun begin! You have the time to be a teacher- the talent for such an undertaking is iffy at best!

    You seem fixated on making this some 'game' with touchdowns or resets with new players to continue when the ogre bites your head off...

    Our nation acts in it's self interest??? no ****- I simply point out we have no real bone to pick with Russia as they are simply acting in their own self interest (why can't some who pretend they are semi-intelligent not be able to try on the other guy's shoes???) and we have no real self interest in the Crimea or Ukraine.

    It works against our self interest because the only sure fire way to 'protect' what ever interest you think 'we', the USofA for the slow ones in the back, has in the Region would require forward basing of US troops and a huge financial aid for the Ukraine that is really just strengthening Russia and draining the USofA.

    So we are not acting in any self interest but rather out of ego and not wanting to be 'the one', like 'the one' who lost china, or 'the one' who lost Cuba, SE Asia, Chile, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and now the Ukraine. We, again the USofA for the crayon crowd, Don't act in a NATIONAL interest as who on Main Street cares who is President of Chile or if the Ukraine is closer or further away from Russia???

    Fact is the theory of active containment- ie fighting either by proxy or directly has proven costly and futile while a flexible ring has proven durable and in the end effective without the need for more walls with names on them.

  3. #83
    Sage
    OldWorldOrder's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    10-12-15 @ 12:13 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    5,820

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by notquiteright View Post
    Let the fun begin! You have the time to be a teacher- the talent for such an undertaking is iffy at best!

    You seem fixated on making this some 'game' with touchdowns or resets with new players to continue when the ogre bites your head off...

    Our nation acts in it's self interest??? no ****- I simply point out we have no real bone to pick with Russia as they are simply acting in their own self interest (why can't some who pretend they are semi-intelligent not be able to try on the other guy's shoes???) and we have no real self interest in the Crimea or Ukraine.

    It works against our self interest because the only sure fire way to 'protect' what ever interest you think 'we', the USofA for the slow ones in the back, has in the Region would require forward basing of US troops and a huge financial aid for the Ukraine that is really just strengthening Russia and draining the USofA.

    So we are not acting in any self interest but rather out of ego and not wanting to be 'the one', like 'the one' who lost china, or 'the one' who lost Cuba, SE Asia, Chile, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and now the Ukraine. We, again the USofA for the crayon crowd, Don't act in a NATIONAL interest as who on Main Street cares who is President of Chile or if the Ukraine is closer or further away from Russia???

    Fact is the theory of active containment- ie fighting either by proxy or directly has proven costly and futile while a flexible ring has proven durable and in the end effective without the need for more walls with names on them.
    I'm not talking about any particular self-interest. Why do you continue to talk about it? I'm talking about how you implied the US was being hypocritical, when the US is just doing what every nation always does: pursuing self-interest. Just like every football team tries to score touchdowns: they're not hypocritical when they try to stop other teams from doing it. Seriously, try to keep up: I was talking about any specific issue in Ukraine or Crimea at all.
    The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected.
    -GK Chesterton

  4. #84
    Sage

    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Last Seen
    08-25-17 @ 02:13 AM
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    7,127

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    You don't get it do you.
    And you have no clue what you are talking about. Let this economist explain it to you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    Russia doesn't have a choice.
    Russia has a choice. Let me show you.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    The mere idea that the EU may impose sanctions on the EU has caused the russian stock market to crumble and the ruble is now lowest it ever was in 10 years. Russia cannot survive a trade war with Europe and Europe can survive just fine.
    EU and US sanctions that have been drawn up are asset freezes and travel bans. Problem is Russia has been moving all of their monetary assets out of EU and US for the last few months. In the last 4 months $100 billion in Russian (Government) held assets have either been sold or moved offshore of the EU and US grasps. Russian companies are doing the same with their assets. If there is little to no assets in the EU and US... what are you gonna freeze? Nothing.

    Ruble has been rocky for years and nobody in Russia really cares about the Micex. They care about the price of crude and gas. If a few billionaires lose money in Russia, that's a net win for Putin because the masses wouldn't mind that. But the recent moves in the Micex are moves to withdraw risk, basically getting ahead of the game.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    The whole "but oil and gas" is a fallacy argument at this point. The euro is still going strong and hasn't budged an inch while the economy of Russia is in free fall. As I said above, the EU has options, tons of options, in terms of trade partners and from whom to import gas and oil. There are dozens of countries that would kill to get in and take 200bil $ from the EU in trade. For that much money, there is always someone who is going to come up with a solution.
    It's a fallacy because you don't realize EU needs Russian crude and gas. Russia shuts of the pipelines, EU is screwed. As it would sky rocket crude and gas prices in Europe and force shut down in production in some cases. Profit margins will collapse and then will the markets. While Russia on the other hand can send that crude and gas to China. China will buy it and resell it for the profit. Russian companies can use China as front to sell it's products as well.

    US can't support the dollar (to keep crude and gas prices low) when Russia does this as it would require interest rate hikes which would take the US economy. So US is in a catch 22 as well.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    So no. Reality has proven that the EU has very little to lose... and Russia is losing everything right now.
    Russia can trade with China and increase their bilateral trade. US and EU would have to put sanctions against China or it will have no effect.
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

  5. #85
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    12-26-14 @ 02:05 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,032

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    And you have no clue what you are talking about. Let this economist explain it to you.



    Russia can trade with China and increase their bilateral trade. US and EU would have to put sanctions against China or it will have no effect.
    Chopped ur comment to a smaller size so it won't be a wall of text but I will address all the points you have made. If not, let me know.

    I know exactly how much each country depends on Russian gas and russian petrol. Some smaller nations like Hungary and Bulgaria depend up to 80% but the only major EU economy that is somewhat dependent is Germany with 30%-35%.

    Already there are plans to increase trade of Liquid Gas from the USA and also to make a new pipeline through Greece and Bulgaria by various nations, including but not limited to Turkey and Kazakstan and some caucus nations.
    Even so, stockpiles are pretty high for natural resources among many European nations.

    Secondly. It's not just the stock market, it's the ruble. The currency. It's at the lowest point in 10 years. That affects everyone, not just the millionaires and billionaires in Russia.

    Thirdly. Russia is not in a position to close the trade with the EU. If it does, it pisses away about 10% of it's GDP. That's right, over 10% of the GDP and millions of jobs hang on the trade with the EU. There is nothing, no other country in the world that can match the 200bil euros trade value. China's trade with Russia is barely 35bil $. Barely 35bil. It can't fork up the money to account for the trade loss it will have from a rich market like the EU. Putin closes the trade, or the EU imposes sanctions and restrictions, you're looking at mass protests, financial depression, mass unemployment etc in Russia. It'll be 1991 all over again.

    I'm not saying it won't be bad. I'm just saying, that the worst will hit Russia first. Europe can cut down on it's petrol consumption because most of Europe, even eastern Europe, has good public transportation infrastructure. If anything, this has just increased the resolve of EU nations to go more green and renounce petrol and gas as much as possible. Petrol is also easily available from Norway, even if it's more expensive.

    So again. I'm not saying the EU will come out scat free, but the EU, financially, loses less than 1% of the total GDP and the third largest trade partner with which it's running a 90bil euro trade deficit. Russia losses it's greatest trading partner, 200 bil of goods and services export and the runner-up, china, is 8x smaller with no possibility of ever making up for the loss.

  6. #86
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Last Seen
    08-18-15 @ 09:36 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,974

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    I know exactly how much each country depends on Russian gas and russian petrol. Some smaller nations like Hungary and Bulgaria depend up to 80% but the only major EU economy that is somewhat dependent is Germany with 30%-35%.
    How do you know this? The figure I saw was 36 percent and was from 2007.

  7. #87
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    12-26-14 @ 02:05 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,032

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    How do you know this? The figure I saw was 36 percent and was from 2007.
    ....

    Well for one... I read am in the loop as it were. I know what the stats are and where to get them. From eurobarometer reports for instance. A great source of well documented information.

    Secondly, if you want to just get a quick glimpse:

    EUobserver / Europe looking at alternatives to Russian gas

    Dependency on Russian gas imports varies greatly among member states - Bulgaria is over 90 percent reliant on Russian exports
    Of the big countries, Germany imports around 35 percent of its gas from Russia, while the UK and France are almost zero-reliant on Russian gas because they import LNG and, in France's case, generate most of their energy via nuclear plants
    Poland meanwhile, which imports about 70 percent of its gas from Russia, as well as Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - the so-called Visegrad Group - have called on the US to lift its legislative hurdles on exporting American shale gas to Europe.
    The euobserver is one of the best publications you could read in regards to EU and EU-related news. Very professional, always valid and objective. It just tells you the facts and you can make up your own mind.

  8. #88
    Sage

    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Last Seen
    08-25-17 @ 02:13 AM
    Lean
    Libertarian
    Posts
    7,127

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    Chopped ur comment to a smaller size so it won't be a wall of text but I will address all the points you have made. If not, let me know.
    Same.. (choppin)..

    Here are the countries in Europe that get 50% or more of their energy from Russia: Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Slovenia.. those right on the cusp of 50%... Austria and Poland. Then comes Germany, Italy, Romania, and France. Those outside of the European Commission.. also include Turkey at 64%.

    So I don't know how anyone, including a smart person like you, thinks that you can find gas and crude that easily from places like Turkey or even Kazakstan. Building a new pipeline takes years. But problem is Kazakstan is part of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia which is morphing into Eurasian Union come 2015. Also to get gas and crude from Kazakhstan require building a line across the Caspian Sea or running it through Iran. Sending LNG from US to Europe wouldn't be viable until 2016 at the earliest.

    Again the Ruble isn't a big deal. Ruble collapsed by 70% in 6 months in 1998 and Russia survived. They'll revalue it and that'll be all. No different then what Greece and Cyprus should have done if they left the EU.

    10% of Russia GDP is 200 billion. But it's not in Euros but dollars. Russia and China already agreed to increasing trade between each other by $100 billion (in 2012 it was $88 billion) by 2020 on top of the new oil deals they signed in Oct 2013 and part of the that agreement includes $20 billion investment by China into to Russia's infrastructure. So it's not gonna be a huge loss.. maybe $100b which is okay in the grand scheme of things.

    EU will be hurt far worse in the short term because while they have "stock pile" of NG, it's a short supply. Russia and Putin have been playing Chess and the West has been playing checkers. Now if it lasts a while.. it's up in the air who gets hurt.
    Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. It is inaccurate to say that I hate everything. I am strongly in favor of common sense, common honesty, and common decency. This makes me forever ineligible for public office. H.L Mencken

  9. #89
    Banned
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Last Seen
    08-18-15 @ 09:36 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,974

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rainman05 View Post
    ....
    Well for one... I read am in the loop as it were. I know what the stats are and where to get them. From eurobarometer reports for instance. A great source of well documented information.
    Your source article said

    Of the big countries, Germany imports around 35 percent of its gas from Russia
    I buy that because that is certainly consistent with the 36 percent figure I saw.

    You said from 30 to 35 percent.

  10. #90
    Banned
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Last Seen
    12-26-14 @ 02:05 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    10,032

    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon View Post
    Same.. (choppin)..

    Here are the countries in Europe that get 50% or more of their energy from Russia: Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Slovenia.. those right on the cusp of 50%... Austria and Poland. Then comes Germany, Italy, Romania, and France. Those outside of the European Commission.. also include Turkey at 64%.

    So I don't know how anyone, including a smart person like you, thinks that you can find gas and crude that easily from places like Turkey or even Kazakstan. Building a new pipeline takes years. But problem is Kazakstan is part of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia which is morphing into Eurasian Union come 2015. Also to get gas and crude from Kazakhstan require building a line across the Caspian Sea or running it through Iran. Sending LNG from US to Europe wouldn't be viable until 2016 at the earliest.

    Again the Ruble isn't a big deal. Ruble collapsed by 70% in 6 months in 1998 and Russia survived. They'll revalue it and that'll be all. No different then what Greece and Cyprus should have done if they left the EU.

    10% of Russia GDP is 200 billion. But it's not in Euros but dollars. Russia and China already agreed to increasing trade between each other by $100 billion (in 2012 it was $88 billion) by 2020 on top of the new oil deals they signed in Oct 2013 and part of the that agreement includes $20 billion investment by China into to Russia's infrastructure. So it's not gonna be a huge loss.. maybe $100b which is okay in the grand scheme of things.

    EU will be hurt far worse in the short term because while they have "stock pile" of NG, it's a short supply. Russia and Putin have been playing Chess and the West has been playing checkers. Now if it lasts a while.. it's up in the air who gets hurt.
    Ok.
    I shall reiterate. I am not saying that a trade war with Russia will leave the EU scat free, that's not what I am saying. But the damage done will collapse Russia faster than the EU.
    Also, Poland gets around 70% of its gas from Russia and all of western europe past Germany have virtually 0 imports from Russia in terms of energy resources.

    The only major EU economy to be influenced by Russia is Germany with around 30-35%.

    You think that devaluating your currency is that easy?
    Look, the russian ruble today is lower than it's been in over 10 years. If Russia devalues it's currency to 1998/1999 levels, the inflation will kill it. High inflation and a low value currency means more expensive imports and less valuable exports. It's why China is the manufacturer of the world, it's devaluating it's currency to artificially keep costs low and so, the exports from China are cheap. That makes it have it's competitive edge. But Russia doesn't want and can't become the second world manufacturer of mass produced bad quality goods. That spot is already taken and it's costing China dearly in terms of health and human capital... and China has people to spare (cynical but true), Russia doesn't.

    If Putin devalues the currency + a trade war with the EU = bye bye Russian economy. You may think that because Russia has natural resources and a pipeline to the EU, that said thing makes it the boss. But it doesn't. The guy with the money is the boss.

    To give an analogy. It's not the guy who carries the bricks who is in charge, it's the guy who is paying him to carry them to build his house that is in charge. The brick carrier needs the money and the guy with the money wants his house... but if the worker stops carrying, sure it'll be a small setback, but there are dozens of more workers willing to get the money and carry the bricks.

    This is what is called "soft power" as opposed to conventional military "hard power". Nukes and tanks and infantry won't save your country from collapsing in on itself else the Soviet Union would have won the cold war.
    If Russia devalues it's currency, any trade with China will not cover it's expenses.
    It's like, if I sell you 1 apple for 100 ruble, and that can make me pay my mortgage... if I devalue the ruble, I'll have to sell you 1 apple for 110 ruble to get the same value. Get it? You think China will happily adjust it's offer for Russian inflation? No. Maybe it can increase the trade with Russia in 5-6 years by 100bil... but that's incremental, baby steps. Not happening.

    As for the EU. Ironically, if Germany had continued to push nuclear energy as it did before Fukushima and a bunch of green activists in Germany got scared that somehow a tsunami+earthquake will hit Germany and cause reactors to collapse... so if Germany had continued to push for nuclear energy, by now, it may have been even less dependent on Russian energy and so would countries like Poland who follow Germanys' example.

Page 9 of 11 FirstFirst ... 7891011 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •