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Thread: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

  1. #31
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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    The conclusion was decided by the US long ago. Putin is responding. He's not the instigator or aggressor in this. Do you think US foreign policy is run by Jesus Christ.
    Putin probably would have been happy keeping his puppet in power but he has no problems with plan B.
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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Quag View Post
    Putin probably would have been happy keeping his puppet in power but he has no problems with plan B.
    Right.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue_State View Post
    If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    I had no idea that the "leader" only received 4% of the vote.

    The article makes a interesting point that this entire situation is in Putin's hands.



    The bear is out of the cage. Are we prepared to in a Cold War Era again?
    What happens next? I don't think Obama and the EU can balk from their threats to slap some pretty tough targeted sanctions on Russia and Crimean parliament leaders. There's been too much hype and buildup now to go back. If Obama does balk, then I think we can kiss what little tatters of credibility we have left goodbye.

    Assuming that sanctions go ahead, then we are looking at reciprocal actions from Russia, though they won't have much affect on the US directly, the EU will feel them to a more or less extent and that would tangentially affect us in some markets. Basically, the market will lose another few percent or more until things stabilize.

    Then the question will really become, what will Putin do next if anything. Will he eye eastern Ukraine thinking that we've exhausted our commitment and political capital? Will he try to force-ably evict the Ukrainian bases in Crimea, thereby provoking war with Ukraine? Will he completely turn off the gas pipes to the EU (which would hurt him just as much as it would the EU)? Or will he realize the difficult economic position he's putting himself in, ratchet down the tension, negotiate with the Ukraine, and simply settle for the same old international agitation that has characterized his dictatorship.

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by SBu View Post
    What happens next? I don't think Obama and the EU can balk from their threats to slap some pretty tough targeted sanctions on Russia and Crimean parliament leaders. There's been too much hype and buildup now to go back. If Obama does balk, then I think we can kiss what little tatters of credibility we have left goodbye.

    Assuming that sanctions go ahead, then we are looking at reciprocal actions from Russia, though they won't have much affect on the US directly, the EU will feel them to a more or less extent and that would tangentially affect us in some markets. Basically, the market will lose another few percent or more until things stabilize.

    Then the question will really become, what will Putin do next if anything. Will he eye eastern Ukraine thinking that we've exhausted our commitment and political capital? Will he try to force-ably evict the Ukrainian bases in Crimea, thereby provoking war with Ukraine? Will he completely turn off the gas pipes to the EU (which would hurt him just as much as it would the EU)? Or will he realize the difficult economic position he's putting himself in, ratchet down the tension, negotiate with the Ukraine, and simply settle for the same old international agitation that has characterized his dictatorship.
    In growing numbers, Americans are loosing their stomachs for US interference in foreign countries. 70% were against any military intervention in Syria, and almost certainly had some effect on us keeping out. (Overtly, that is)
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    I believe it is giving Putin waaaay too much credit to think he engineered this. He is responding to a revolt in the Ukraine that threatens a strategic interest in the Black Sea. He didn't send in millions of ethnic Russians over the years to tip the demographics. He is trying to maintain the Military bases Russia has had since before the Crimean war in the 1850's.

    A prime minister isn't elected in some sort of voting system by the general population such as our President through an electoral college. He is most often appointed by the majority party in Parliament. So it doesn't matter if the new Prime Minister ever won an election by popular vote, it only matters that the Parliament sees him as a worthy PM.

    Putin holds all the aces, but he didn't draw any of them- they were dealt to him.

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Putin will offer Kerry a set of matryoshka dolls and Kerry will come back to the US claiming victory.

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by SBu View Post
    What happens next? I don't think Obama and the EU can balk from their threats to slap some pretty tough targeted sanctions on Russia and Crimean parliament leaders. There's been too much hype and buildup now to go back. If Obama does balk, then I think we can kiss what little tatters of credibility we have left goodbye.

    Assuming that sanctions go ahead, then we are looking at reciprocal actions from Russia, though they won't have much affect on the US directly, the EU will feel them to a more or less extent and that would tangentially affect us in some markets. Basically, the market will lose another few percent or more until things stabilize.

    Then the question will really become, what will Putin do next if anything. Will he eye eastern Ukraine thinking that we've exhausted our commitment and political capital? Will he try to force-ably evict the Ukrainian bases in Crimea, thereby provoking war with Ukraine? Will he completely turn off the gas pipes to the EU (which would hurt him just as much as it would the EU)? Or will he realize the difficult economic position he's putting himself in, ratchet down the tension, negotiate with the Ukraine, and simply settle for the same old international agitation that has characterized his dictatorship.
    I think the US State Department knew when they initiated this intrigue that Russia had 26,000 troops in Crimea and would respond exactly as has transpired. The USA must consider getting control of the Ukrainian pipelines (can be filled from the Atlantic Coast by USA energy) and gettting radar and missile sites to surround Russia as worth the cost. As far as sanctions go, the USA wants to be very cautious because our "fiat" currency and the "confidence" that supports it are are not tangibles. The USA has intentionally created this crisis, and the Militry/Industrial/Corporate marketing arm will automatically benefit, at a time when, here in the USA, there is pressure to reduce Military Offense budgets. This agenda also forces Putin to redefine who his economic allies are and reinforce those alliances, and he will, by necessity, aggravating "Cold War" scenarios and improving marketing for weapons systems worldwide to the benefit of the World's largest arms salepeople (the USA). A win-win for USA CORPORATE.

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by EnigmaO01 View Post
    Allegations with no proof.
    Conspiracy theory, actually. Straight from the Unabomber's manifesto.


    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Oh dear lord. Did you miss the part when Hillary Clinton said to listen to Al Jazeera, if you want "real news"
    Why do you continue to repeat this lie?

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by DaveFagan View Post
    I think the US State Department knew when they initiated this intrigue that Russia had 26,000 troops in Crimea and would respond exactly as has transpired. The USA must consider getting control of the Ukrainian pipelines (can be filled from the Atlantic Coast by USA energy) and gettting radar and missile sites to surround Russia as worth the cost. As far as sanctions go, the USA wants to be very cautious because our "fiat" currency and the "confidence" that supports it are are not tangibles. The USA has intentionally created this crisis, and the Militry/Industrial/Corporate marketing arm will automatically benefit, at a time when, here in the USA, there is pressure to reduce Military Offense budgets. This agenda also forces Putin to redefine who his economic allies are and reinforce those alliances, and he will, by necessity, aggravating "Cold War" scenarios and improving marketing for weapons systems worldwide to the benefit of the World's largest arms salepeople (the USA). A win-win for USA CORPORATE.
    Ah yes, it is all the fault of the US. Never mind that Russia is militarily occupying Crimea and digging in. It was such a morally righteous move on the part of Russia that these troops wear no insignia and identifying markings, took over bases and government buildings in the middle of the night, and have been physically intimidating opposition at gunpoint. Are those the actions of a country that is simply protecting its military interests and providing order? No. Try to not let yourself be blinded to facts due to your distrust of the corporate system.

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    Re: If Crimea says 'Da!,' what's next?

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    In growing numbers, Americans are loosing their stomachs for US interference in foreign countries. 70% were against any military intervention in Syria, and almost certainly had some effect on us keeping out. (Overtly, that is)
    Iraq and Afganistan are still fresh in their memories. Memories will fade, just as they did after the end of the Vietnam fiasco.
    "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud... [he's] playing the American public for suckers." Mitt Romney

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