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Thread: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    As the Russian minister pointed out at the UN yesterday. The present Ukrainian government is illegitimate, having taken its position by force through violence, toppling the elected government and driving the president out, firing upon his caravan as he fled. That's not democracy.
    What do you suggest should be done? The opinion of the 'Russian minister' is neither here nor there. The Ukrainians can work it out for themselves.

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Unfortunately your post below is a mix of truths with misrepresentations and misunderstandings;

    Quote Originally Posted by MadLib View Post
    Svoboda is a Ukrainian nationalist group, you're right on that account; however, it in no way is representative of Ukraine's new government.
    Indeed, and them with the more extreme wings weren't (and hopefully aren't) representative of the majority of the population.

    Quote Originally Posted by MadLib View Post
    The party which has led the movement is the pro-EU conservative "Fatherland" party.
    Both the acting president and the PM are members of this party, and it and Yanukovych's old Party of Regions are the largest two parties in Parliament.
    Party of regions and Batykovshina are the largest parties "on paper" and Wiki, because they were elected before the recent Maidan revolution - in very murky elections, these elections would have very little to do with the current aspirations of Ukrainians in the streets, and the actual situation on the ground in Ukraine.

    Moreover, the "political affiliation" of some party members is just a formality, as could have been seen from the Party of regions vote to impeach Yanukovich, and from;
    segodnya.ua (sorry it's in Russian)
    "Party of Regions deputies out of 75 (updated) - 4.3.14
    Today, pro-government faction left 2 more MPs
    Of the parliamentary faction of the Party of Regions went 2 more MPs. In general, the faction lost and 75 people's deputies.
    Resignation from the faction wrote:
    Sergei Klyuyev
    Vladimir Nakonechniy
    Vladimir Demishkan..."


    Ukrainian political life is much more complicated than the simple division according to party/political lines i.e liberal vs. conservative - and a large portion of PMs are sitting in the Rada not because of their strong political stance, but due to a simple desire to be close to the power and money.

    Quote Originally Posted by MadLib View Post
    Svoboda, on the other hand, only accounts for 8% of MPs.
    It accounted for 8% in the parliament based on the previous electons, unfortunately like I already explained these elections have nothing to do with the situation that we have now. Svoboda's Tyagnibok is one of the main 2 winners of the revolution, together with Yatzenuk, (2 and not 3 as I don't consider Klichko as someone that has future in Ukraine's political life).

    The main problem with that is that Svoboda, and the extreme groups like Pravy sektor gained more power, they gained more recognition, and the worst part is that they managed to get into the mainstream narrative in Ukraine and around the world.
    That is very obvious if one watches the Ukrainian media, for example, nationalists and Nazis are portrayed as "heroes" on the pro-European "liberal" media outlets such as espreso.tv.
    Furthermore, these groups are better organised, equipped and armed and can be easily manipulated to obey orders by their leaders.

    These nationalist and Nazi parties played a crucial role in the recent "revolution" as the main and well organized fighting force on the ground, and they are not going to just disappear.

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    Last edited by Fallenangel; 03-15-14 at 02:54 AM.
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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    What do you suggest should be done? The opinion of the 'Russian minister' is neither here nor there. The Ukrainians can work it out for themselves.
    It's not just an opinion, its what actually happened, and the government that stands wasn't elected, as the one that got toppled was. I do agree that this is a Russian/Ukrainian issue, and they should work it out themselves, but then its already too late for that.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Here's some history.

    BBC NEWS | Europe | Bush backs Ukraine on Nato bid

    It all depends on how this Crimea situation is handled, and that alone is not 'crucial', though it all depends on western reaction. If the western democracies are strongly united against further advancement by the Russians then the situation can be diffused, though with the loss of the Crimea. Overall that is no big deal.

    As the article form the BBC shows, among others, that the Germans, the French, the US Democrats and certainly the Russians, were against having the Ukraine in NATO. We can understand why but will the Germans and French respond with more vigor against Russia this time? It seems clearly in their own best long term interest to do so.

    This entire situation can be easily handled if the west stays firm for the next couple of weeks and are planning now for their response to what might happen next. Russian should never be allowed to advance further into the Ukraine. If they do then the situation will definitely become crucial. Cheers.
    I agree that it depends on how the situation is handled, and that's exactly why it is crucial. But no need to quibble over that detail.

    I also agree that it's possible tensions can be diffused if cool heads prevail. The likely annexation of Crimea and the rest of Ukraine becoming a part of the EU will mean some differences in the way business is conducted. Actually I think that if that happens, and Ukraine DOES NOT become a part of NATO, that might be a good thing, because it would mean that the issue would be somewhat settled and would therefore result in more stability, if both sides leave it at that. However, if there is an attempt, in the short term to bring Ukraine into NATO, that will be a problem and instability in the area will continue, with the possibility that the conflict could erupt into a global conflict. Having said that, if Russia is allowed to have Crimea, they should be able to tolerate, although with some discomfort, the rest of Ukraine being in NATO. That's only in the long run though, and if that's what the people of Ukraine ultimately want.

    I believe that if, as Kerry as seemed to indicate, the US and Europe try to impose SUBSTANTIAL sanctions on Russia for the annexation of Crimea, then that will be a problem for both sides. As I stated before, Germany in particular gets close to 40 percent of it's natural gas from Russia. The imposition of substantial sanctions would almost certainly mean a disruption in those supplies. Although I think it will hurt Russia more, Europe and the US will feel a substantial bite as a result. Why? It would mean an increase in energy prices for Germany, who has been the engine of the European economy. German exports will become more expensive which will depress demand and the already fragile European economy will suffer significantly and likely go into an depression. The US will likely have to use the power of the Federal Reserve to prop up the European financial system as it did back in 2008. This will put increased stress on Federal Reserve which will decrease confidence in the global financial system, and could likely send the US economy, which is still struggling to recover from the effects of the Great Recession, into depression as well. Like I said, although Russia will likely suffer most, the effects on Europe and the United States will be extremely unpleasant to say the least. So I think substantial sanctions are in no one's interest.

    But back to the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine. If there is a push to bring Ukraine into NATO in the short term, Russia will almost certainly respond by using what influence they have in the non-Crimean part of Ukraine to create as much instability as possible. And they may even respond by attempting to seize the parts of Eastern Ukraine where their influence is very substantial. If that happens, then things could get out of hand very fast, especially if Ukraine is actually admitted to NATO. That could lead to all out war between the US and Russia. Although I don't think this scenario is likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility, and which is why, as you have seemed to indicate, the situation must be handled properly.

    The path of least resistance would be for Russia to accept leaving Crimea as an autonomous part of Ukraine for the short term, with the possibility that it could become a part of Russia in the future. In exchange they could receive the guarantee that there would be no NATO membership for Ukraine. However, honestly, if I were in Putin's position, I would settle the issue of Crimea now, and write off the rest of Ukraine. The US and Europe won't like it, but I think they would live with it, after extracting a painful, but bearable price. I think that is likely where we are headed.
    Last edited by MildSteel; 03-15-14 at 03:14 PM.

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    It's not just an opinion, its what actually happened, and the government that stands wasn't elected, as the one that got toppled was. I do agree that this is a Russian/Ukrainian issue, and they should work it out themselves, but then its already too late for that.
    How is it a Russian issue as to what goes on in the Ukraine? It is an international issue, if anything.

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    How is it a Russian issue as to what goes on in the Ukraine? It is an international issue, if anything.
    Well it was just a Ukrainian issue until Russia invaded, then they became involved as well.
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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by MildSteel View Post
    I agree that it depends on how the situation is handled, and that's exactly why it is crucial. But no need to quibble over that detail.

    I also agree that it's possible tensions can be diffused if cool heads prevail. The likely annexation of Crimea and the rest of Ukraine becoming a part of the EU will mean some differences in the way business is conducted. Actually I think that if that happens, and Ukraine DOES NOT become a part of NATO, that might be a good thing, because it would mean that the issue would be somewhat settled and would therefore result in more stability, if both sides leave it at that. However, if there is an attempt, in the short term to bring Ukraine into NATO, that will be a problem and instability in the area will continue, with the possibility that the conflict could erupt into a global conflict. Having said that, if Russia is allowed to have Crimea, they should be able to tolerate, although with some discomfort, the rest of Ukraine being in NATO. That's only in the long run though, and if that's what the people of Ukraine ultimately want.

    I believe that if, as Kerry as seemed to indicate, the US and Europe try to impose SUBSTANTIAL sanctions on Russia for the annexation of Crimea, then that will be a problem for both sides. As I stated before, Germany in particular gets close to 40 percent of it's natural gas from Russia. The imposition of substantial sanctions would almost certainly mean a disruption in those supplies. Although I think it will hurt Russia more, Europe and the US will feel a substantial bite as a result. Why? It would mean an increase in energy prices for Germany, who has been the engine of the European economy. German exports will become more expensive which will depress demand and the already fragile European economy will suffer significantly and likely go into an depression. The US will likely have to use the power of the Federal Reserve to prop up the European financial system as it did back in 2008. This will put increased stress on Federal Reserve which will decrease confidence in the global financial system, and could likely send the US economy, which is still struggling to recover from the effects of the Great Recession, into depression as well. Like I said, although Russia will likely suffer most, the effects on Europe and the United States will be extremely unpleasant to say the least. So I think substantial sanctions are in no one's interest.

    But back to the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine. If there is a push to bring Ukraine into NATO in the short term, Russia will almost certainly respond by using what influence they have in the non-Crimean part of Ukraine to create as much instability as possible. And they may even respond by attempting to seize the parts of Eastern Ukraine where their influence is very substantial. If that happens, then things could get out of hand very fast, especially if Ukraine is actually admitted to NATO. That could lead to all out war between the US and Russia. Although I don't think this scenario is likely, it is not out of the realm of possibility, and which is why, as you have seemed to indicate, the situation must be handled properly.

    The path of least resistance would be for Russia to accept leaving Crimea as an autonomous part of Ukraine for the short term, with the possibility that it could become a part of Russia in the future. In exchange they could receive the guarantee that there would be no NATO membership for Ukraine. However, honestly, if I were in Putin's position, I would settle the issue of Crimea now, and write off the rest of Ukraine. The US and Europe won't like it, but I think they would live with it, after extracting a painful, but bearable price. I think that is likely where we are headed.
    I certainly agree with your analysis. In everyone's interest, including that of the Ukrainian people, Russia should have the Crimea, their freshwater port, and stop right there. It need go no further. NATO and all the rest can wait indefinitely.

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Quag View Post
    Well it was just a Ukrainian issue until Russia invaded, then they became involved as well.
    Yes, they became involved certainly, but that does not make it a Russian issue.

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Large anti-war protest in Moscow, China doesn't back russia in security council vote and possibly an incursion by Russia into mainland Ukraine.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/wo...aine-says.html

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    Re: Crimea parliament declares independence from Ukraine ahead of referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Grant View Post
    Yes, they became involved certainly, but that does not make it a Russian issue.
    It shouldn't be but because they have invaded they are involved.
    A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject.
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