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For First Time, Kremlin Signals It Is Prepared to Annex Crimea [W:153]

apdst said:
Or, Putin could tell his posse, "boy, we can't afford to het into a shootin' war. We better figure out how to step back from this without looking like a buncha punks".

There a couple million battle hardened veterans in America that could be deployed against a Russian army that hasn't seen combat in nearly 30 years. That's a distinct advantage that we have over the Russians.
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Yeah, experience in fighting is a huge advantage over experience in diplomacy and peace.
 
24107 said:
If the American people want the rest of the world to screw off than the administration is listening to the American people.

Is that not democracy?
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The US Government signs alliances and treaties with other countries that it needs to uphold or render them all useless.

The world is currently tied in a netting of alliances in which US projection of power is essential to maintain. We can argue whether that is fair or not, but the reality is there are a good many bad actors in the world that will be getting more adventuresome as they realize that the US president has essentially neutralized US power.

As the net starts to unravel it is simply foolish to think that the trouble will remain "over there".
 
jmotivator said:
The US Government signs alliances and treaties with other countries that it needs to uphold or render them all useless.

The world is currently tied in a netting of alliances in which US projection of power is essential to maintain. We can argue whether that is fair or not, but the reality is there are a good many bad actors in the world that will be getting more adventuresome as they realize that the US president has essentially neutralized US power.

As the net starts to unravel it is simply foolish to think that the trouble will remain "over there".
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If you're referring to Russia as a bad actor for this action they've taken, then certainly you include the US in that category.
 
apdst said:
Or, Putin could tell his posse, "boy, we can't afford to het into a shootin' war. We better figure out how to step back from this without looking like a buncha punks".

There a couple million battle hardened veterans in America that could be deployed against a Russian army that hasn't seen combat in nearly 30 years. That's a distinct advantage that we have over the Russians.
Click to expand...

I'm going to stop short of labeling you as another warmonger who sees military intervention as the only means to settling disputes with foreign governments and instead view your response as just that - a counter to the hypothetical situation I described concerning the possibility of economic sanctions placing Russia in a desperate state similar to what Japan went that pulled the U.S. into WWII. Yes, we do have the war making capabilities. The question is would we be justified in using them at this stage?

Is Putin trying to be a bully? Yes. By placing armed Russian military forces in the Ukraine with no credible evidence of hostilities concerning their national security interests (oil pipelines and shipping ports), he has violated international law.

Is he being deceptive? Yes. His only true claims on Ukraine are the oil pipelines and the shipping ports. Putin claims to have a letter from the deposed Ukrainian President asking him to "protect ethic Russians in Crimea", but no such document has been make public to the world as of yet that I'm aware of. So, as far as I'm concerned it's a farce.

IMO, the real questions the world should be asking are:

1) What is Russia's legal claims in the Ukraine?

2) Will the world accept a referendum by the Ukrainian people OR their government to allow Crimea to become part of Russia again or will such a vote be rejected on its face as illegitimate? And if so, what's next?

Answer those two simple questions and this matter can be resolved peacefully. Do not and the world could have a big mess on its hands.
 
Montecresto said:
If you're referring to Russia as a bad actor for this action they've taken, then certainly you include the US in that category.
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Of course not, why would I? Do you think the US has any plans on annexing any countries?
 
apdst said:
Or, Putin could tell his posse, "boy, we can't afford to het into a shootin' war. We better figure out how to step back from this without looking like a buncha punks".

There a couple million battle hardened veterans in America that could be deployed against a Russian army that hasn't seen combat in nearly 30 years. That's a distinct advantage that we have over the Russians.
Click to expand...

So Iraq and Afghanistan are real wars while the Caucasus and (ironically) Afghanistan aren't?
 
jmotivator said:
The US Government signs alliances and treaties with other countries that it needs to uphold or render them all useless.

The world is currently tied in a netting of alliances in which US projection of power is essential to maintain. We can argue whether that is fair or not, but the reality is there are a good many bad actors in the world that will be getting more adventuresome as they realize that the US president has essentially neutralized US power.

As the net starts to unravel it is simply foolish to think that the trouble will remain "over there".
Click to expand...

We can agree but does Europe? How can they contribute?
 
Grant said:
We can agree but does Europe? How can they contribute?
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Well, personally, I see no political will for averting catastrophe. This kind of thing ends up dragging us in after all the better solutions are impossible.

To Obama's credit he has started the war games bit to back up his diplomatic efforts, but unfortunately he doesn't seem to realize that this only has meaning if you haven't already taken military response off the table.

The EU offering Ukraine bailout money only makes the situation worse since Putin REALLY doesn't want Ukraine going to the EU or joining NATO (his jump into Crimea is partly to stall the pro-West Ukraine joining EU). At this point such moves simply provoke a military response from Putin who has already shown quite clearly that he still has military action on the table.

Sanctions on Russia will hurt the EU most of all since they will lose their Russian oil while Russia will simply divert that supply to China who is always in the market for more oil and likely would not heed any sanctions on Russia and nobody in the current global economy is well situated financially to impose sanctions on China anyway.

Putin has correctly diagnosed the situation and knows that the only people who MIGHT put up a fight are the Ukrainians and he sees that as a win-win.
 
jmotivator said:
Well, personally, I see no political will for averting catastrophe. This kind of thing ends up dragging us in after all the better solutions are impossible.

To Obama's credit he has started the war games bit to back up his diplomatic efforts, but unfortunately he doesn't seem to realize that this only has meaning if you haven't already taken military response off the table.

The EU offering Ukraine bailout money only makes the situation worse since Putin REALLY doesn't want Ukraine going to the EU or joining NATO (his jump into Crimea is partly to stall the pro-West Ukraine joining EU). At this point such moves simply provoke a military response from Putin who has already shown quite clearly that he still has military action on the table.

Sanctions on Russia will hurt the EU most of all since they will lose their Russian oil while Russia will simply divert that supply to China who is always in the market for more oil and likely would not heed any sanctions on Russia and nobody in the current global economy is well situated financially to impose sanctions on China anyway.

Putin has correctly diagnosed the situation and knows that the only people who MIGHT put up a fight are the Ukrainians and he sees that as a win-win.
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US military intervention was never on the table and no sane person would ever have put it on the table in this situation.
 
Deuce said:
US military intervention was never on the table and no sane person would ever have put it on the table in this situation.
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Which is why Putin is going to do exactly what he wants. He knows no one is going to lift a finger to stop him.
 
jmotivator said:
Of course not, why would I? Do you think the US has any plans on annexing any countries?
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We don't annex countires anymore. We build a few military bases on them instead.
 
Deuce said:
US military intervention was never on the table and no sane person would ever have put it on the table in this situation.
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You and I are in agreement on that. Absolutely!
 
apdst said:
Which is why Putin is going to do exactly what he wants. He knows no one is going to lift a finger to stop him.
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And what do you want to propose? That we attack Russia over Ukraine?
 
I can't just picture President Hillary Clinton now wagging her finger at Russia for being bad.
 
jmotivator said:
Well, personally, I see no political will for averting catastrophe. This kind of thing ends up dragging us in after all the better solutions are impossible.

To Obama's credit he has started the war games bit to back up his diplomatic efforts, but unfortunately he doesn't seem to realize that this only has meaning if you haven't already taken military response off the table.

The EU offering Ukraine bailout money only makes the situation worse since Putin REALLY doesn't want Ukraine going to the EU or joining NATO (his jump into Crimea is partly to stall the pro-West Ukraine joining EU). At this point such moves simply provoke a military response from Putin who has already shown quite clearly that he still has military action on the table.

Sanctions on Russia will hurt the EU most of all since they will lose their Russian oil while Russia will simply divert that supply to China who is always in the market for more oil and likely would not heed any sanctions on Russia and nobody in the current global economy is well situated financially to impose sanctions on China anyway.

Putin has correctly diagnosed the situation and knows that the only people who MIGHT put up a fight are the Ukrainians and he sees that as a win-win.
Click to expand...
Speculation can be interesting. Mine is that Putin will have the Ukraine but will go no further because the world really will take notice, as well as the next US President.. The Ukraine will eventually join the EU and NATO. Russia's weaknesses will become more apparent with time, especially with the Chinese pressuring their western borders. They will continue to problems with Islamists, as will the Chinese, but the Chinese will probably be more ruthless in their response. Don't take that to the bank!
 
Grant said:
Speculation can be interesting. Mine is that Putin will have the Ukraine but will go no further because the world really will take notice, as well as the next US President.. The Ukraine will eventually join the EU and NATO. Russia's weaknesses will become more apparent with time, especially with the Chinese pressuring their western borders. They will continue to problems with Islamists, as will the Chinese, but the Chinese will probably be more ruthless in their response. Don't take that to the bank!
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If Putin takes The Ukraine, unopposed, he'll keep wanting more.
 
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