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Thread: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    I don't believe the EU will do much of anything, with the exception of the eastern european countries formerly part of the Soviet block.
    I think the EU will do a great deal economically. There are significant Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldovia, Kazakhstan etc, as well as a very significant number of russified Belarusans.

    Though it is doubtful that Putin intends to strong arm these nations, the EU might think it better to keep the Ossetia, then Abkazia, then Crimea, then... ? pattern from going any further- especially if this can be done with out military force against a Russian economy with some inherent weaknesses.

    Also, a weak economic response on Crimea might embolden Putin to press for eastern Ukraine, or a full union treaty with Ukraine. This could start a major war and have more economic losses for the EU than sanctions.
    Last edited by Cryptic; 03-04-14 at 11:32 AM.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Cryptic View Post
    I think the EU will do a great deal economically. There are significant Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldovia, Kazakhstan etc, as well as a very significant number of russified Belarusans.
    We'll see. If the EU does, I think it will be longer term. Might be a mild winter there, but it's still winter.

    Though it is doubtful that Putin intends to strong arm these nations, the EU might think it better to keep the Ossetia, then Abkazia, then Crimea, then... ? pattern from going any further- especially if this can be done with out military force against a Russian economy with some inherent weaknesses.
    Putin would strong arm those nations if he could. He can't. If the market for Russian energy shrinks a bit, so shrinks Russian power.

    Also, a weak economic response on Crimea might embolden Putin to press for eastern Ukraine, or a full union treaty with Ukraine. This could start a major war and have more economic losses for the EU than sanctions.
    I agree that an economic response is the most effective, but it must be done in concert, and it must have an accompanying increase in military defense posture in order to be credible. Putin no doubt has his eyes on the whole of Ukraine, when and if the opportunity arises. Russia's military conducted games to the north of Ukraine as well as the publicized activities of their forces in the Crimean region. Ukraine forces already hopeless outmatched on their east would also have to confront Russian military to their north all the way to the Polish border. In short, had Putin dared to risk it, all of Ukraine was there for Russia's taking. That was a demonstration offered for the benefit of Ukrainian leadership in Kiev.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    No one will do anything, this is not 1950.
    It's nothing more than X's and O's.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    We'll see. If the EU does, I think it will be longer term. Might be a mild winter there, but it's still winter.

    Putin would strong arm those nations if he could. He can't. If the market for Russian energy shrinks a bit, so shrinks Russian power.

    I agree that an economic response is the most effective, but it must be done in concert, and it must have an accompanying increase in military defense posture in order to be credible. Putin no doubt has his eyes on the whole of Ukraine, when and if the opportunity arises. Russia's military conducted games to the north of Ukraine as well as the publicized activities of their forces in the Crimean region. Ukraine forces already hopeless outmatched on their east would also have to confront Russian military to their north all the way to the Polish border. In short, had Putin dared to risk it, all of Ukraine was there for Russia's taking. That was a demonstration offered for the benefit of Ukrainian leadership in Kiev.
    Now Putin is claiming that the unmarked militia in Crimea are simply local peace keepers. This is pretty much what I was predicting Putin's play to be all along. It's a win win for him. If the world simply lets him annex Crimea under this pretense then he gets Crimea. If Ukrainian forces try and push the occupation back he can claim that the new Ukrainian government is oppressing peaceful Ukrainian citizens and use that as the springboard into larger military action.

    Seems increasingly clear that were it not for the Sochi Olympics Russian tanks would have been in Kiev weeks ago.

    Also, economic sanctions won't work so well in this situation since half of Europe runs off of Russian oil and gas that runs through pipelines in the Ukraine. Any sanctions of Russian exports and imports would only begin to strangle Europe.

    The best economic response would be to begin work on US oil and gas production and start supplying the EU. Russia's biggest bargaining chip is that energy suppl, we should be working to take that away.
    Last edited by jmotivator; 03-04-14 at 12:41 PM.
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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by humbolt View Post
    I agree that an economic response is the most effective, but it must be done in concert, and it must have an accompanying increase in military defense posture in order to be credible.
    That is also going to take time. Since neither the US, nor NATO is committed to sending soldiers, the credible deterance must come from Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia etc. .

    Western weapons manufacturers have priced themselves out of the market. The Baltic nations are too small to be able to afford significant, or even moderate amounts of pricey western eqipment. Ukraine, once they get their economy fixed, probably could afford a significant amount, but that is years away.

    Ironically, the weapons that have the best value (cost to performance), and when in the hands of well trained soldiers, could be a credible deterrance against Russian strong arming, are all made in Russia.
    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Now Putin is claiming that the unmarked militia in Crimea are simply local peace keepers. This is pretty much what I was predicting Putin's play to be all along. It's a win win for him. If the world simply lets him annex Crimea under this pretense then he gets Crimea. If Ukrainian forces try and push the occupation back he can claim that the new Ukrainian government is oppressing peaceful Ukrainian citizens and use that as the springboard into larger military action.
    Good point.

    Putin is a rare combination of physical strength, high personal confidence and alot of brains. I bet he plays both chess and poker, and plays them very well. I would not want to play against him for high stakes.
    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Also, economic sanctions won't work so well in this situation since half of Europe runs off of Russian oil and gas that runs through pipelines in the Ukraine. Any sanctions of Russian exports and imports would only begin to strangle Europe.
    I disagree. The Russians could have cut Ukraine off weeks ago, but they did not. My guess is that they need every gas sale to be made on time to keep their own economy floating. They are not in the same position as the arab nations were when they did their large scale embargo.
    Last edited by Cryptic; 03-04-14 at 12:46 PM.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Now Putin is claiming that the unmarked militia in Crimea are simply local peace keepers. This is pretty much what I was predicting Putin's play to be all along. It's a win win for him. If the world simply lets him annex Crimea under this pretense then he gets Crimea. If Ukrainian forces try and push the occupation back he can claim that the new Ukrainian government is oppressing peaceful Ukrainian citizens and use that as the springboard into larger military action.
    Sounds like the seized Ukrainian forces had better behave themselves then, and all will end well.
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    Russia previously used other means, such as economic warfare, to keep Ukraine in line. Why would it abandon less risky tactics for military ocupation?
    Because it can - because it no longer has to depend on weaker forms of control due to the crumbling of the the ability and willingness of other nations to oppose it. Power is often a zero sum game - as the West has weakened, Russia has grown relatively stronger.

    As for "risky" - there is nothing "risky" about this. I don't think I've even heard of Russia (as of yet) losing a single soldier, sailor, or airman. What is the international community going to do? At most some harsh rhetoric with some mild economic sanctions, which they will quickly walk back before Putin starts playing with the lights in Eastern Europe.

    What is Putin Risking, here?

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    Sounds like the seized Ukrainian forces had better behave themselves then, and all will end well.
    Ever to the defense of the oppressor, I see.
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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Seems increasingly clear that were it not for the Sochi Olympics Russian tanks would have been in Kiev weeks ago.
    I don't think he will do that unless the Ukrainian government starts attacking his forces. He is in Crimea at their request. I think that's where his interests ends, to maintain good relations with that region. Maybe his end game is to absorb them, but... who knows...

    Putin's a master at strategy, and Kerry, Obama, etc. are showing themselves to be the fools we all knew they were.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    I don't think he will do that unless the Ukrainian government starts attacking his forces. He is in Crimea at their request. I think that's where his interests ends, to maintain good relations with that region. Maybe his end game is to absorb them, but... who knows...

    Putin's a master at strategy, and Kerry, Obama, etc. are showing themselves to be the fools we all knew they were.
    That is a lot to ask Ukraine to accept. How would Putin respond if trucks of armed gunmen drove in to Smolensk and blockaded the government buildings in the name of "peace"? If a firefight breaks out it is entirely Putin's fault and the Ukrainian government would be entirely justified.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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