The UN is pretty toothless when it comes to Russia, most especially since Russia, with veto power, will vote no to any UN interference in their dealings with Ukraine. But Fox News this morning, via an anonymous source, said the Security Council does have the request from Ukraine and is considering it.
But given that the UN most likely will not be able to act, we would have to proceed without UN blessings. Does anybody here want us to do that?
"I think the best way of doing good to the poor, is not making them easy in poverty, but leading or driving them out of it." --Benjamin Franklin 1776
We won't do anything, except for rhetoric and wind blowing. There's little we can do to Russia that doesn't end well.
Einstein, "science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind."
It seems to me that Russia is beefing up it's presence in Crimea because it has substantial assets and interests there. Russian military bases dot the Crimean peninsula. Who knows what organizations the people who nabbed the airport and ministry are, but until that becomes clear, we should not resort to too much speculation.
It doesn't seem like an invasion is taking place, and the territorial incursions are designed to secure Russian assets that Ukraine has allowed to operate via legal lease etc. So I don't think the context of the treaty has reached a tipping point. The gov't in Kiev can diffuse the situation if it shows some leadership and avoids provocation itself. This is something to watch carefully, however.
But on to the main point, what does the treaty obligate the US, France or China to do exactly?
For that matter has the Russian Bear crossed the Eastern Border?
As far as anyone can verify, key word there, this 'verify', the armed men are locals in some sort of ad-hoc self defense force.
Now on the future value, as an Irishman you should know the history of your nation and the rest of Europe. Treaties are worth what they are as long as they are of value to the signatories, soon as that changes then a fast as a Hooker's smile fades so to does the adherence.
So far the treaty is still being honored. But do you think the USofA should pour combat units into the Ukraine if the Russians cross the Eastern Border and seize half of the Ukraine?
Treaty or not treaty the EU shoudl be taking the lead on this considering its the EU that Ukraine wants to remain with! Time for Merkel and company to validate this union of theirs.
‘This is not peace, it is an armistice for 20 years.’ (Ferdinand Foch. After the Treaty of Versailles, 1919).
- There was never a good war, or a bad peace.
- Idealistically, everything should work as you planed it to. Realistically, it depends on how idealistic you are as to the measure of success.
- Better to be a pessimist before, and an optimist afterwords.