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Thread: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by PoS View Post
    I agree with you, EU should take the lead and I feel the US should stay out of it since personally I am politically an advocate for non-interventionism but however we did sign that treaty with them so you know...
    With Ukraine?

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Yes, I believe it was called the Budapest memorandum sometime in the mid 1990's. US did sign onto that.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    I haven't read the treaty- does it say we will go to war if the Ukraine declares itself compromised? If anything the Russians are violating the treaty as they signed on to 'protect' the Ukraine's territory as well.

    Not the same as the Sudetenland. In the Crimea, Russia has considered it Russian since the wars with the Turks. Charge of the Light Brigade and all that. Russia has maintained military bases in the Crimea for centuries- Germany had not in the Sudetenland. Russia seizing land from Finland would be a better comp for pre-WWII Germany.

    But as best anyone can tell there is no land grab as in Georgia, but securing the lifelines back to Mother Russia. If Russian troops seal the penn and pour divisions into Crimea...THEN it is an invasion.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by notquiteright View Post
    I haven't read the treaty- does it say we will go to war if the Ukraine declares itself compromised? If anything the Russians are violating the treaty as they signed on to 'protect' the Ukraine's territory as well.

    Not the same as the Sudetenland. In the Crimea, Russia has considered it Russian since the wars with the Turks. Charge of the Light Brigade and all that. Russia has maintained military bases in the Crimea for centuries- Germany had not in the Sudetenland. Russia seizing land from Finland would be a better comp for pre-WWII Germany.

    But as best anyone can tell there is no land grab as in Georgia, but securing the lifelines back to Mother Russia. If Russian troops seal the penn and pour divisions into Crimea...THEN it is an invasion.
    Nope. But if a signatory can break the agreement, and the others say "whatever", what value does any treaty have?

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben K. View Post
    The US and UK signed the agreement im afraid.
    Actually, I had forgotten the Budapest Memorandum and just reread it and it probably would mean the US would be obliged to ask the Security Councii to assist Ukraine. But I don't see an obligation to throw troops against the aggressor or even supply weapons.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben K. View Post
    Nope. But if a signatory can break the agreement, and the others say "whatever", what value does any treaty have?
    It got the nukes out of the Ukraine- very valuable. Like Europe needs another volatile nation with nukes???

    If we look at past history, especially in Europe, we see most of their treaties are not worth the paper they are written on and rarely survive a decade. All the grand bargains during the scramble for colonies, the great alliances since Napoleon? They had impressive names and fancy high dollar words- but alas they either fall by the wayside or slaughter a generation of Europeans...

    Is the EU going to hold the signatories to a higher standard than they have managed?

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by notquiteright View Post
    It got the nukes out of the Ukraine- very valuable. Like Europe needs another volatile nation with nukes???

    If we look at past history, especially in Europe, we see most of their treaties are not worth the paper they are written on and rarely survive a decade. All the grand bargains during the scramble for colonies, the great alliances since Napoleon? They had impressive names and fancy high dollar words- but alas they either fall by the wayside or slaughter a generation of Europeans...

    Is the EU going to hold the signatories to a higher standard than they have managed?
    The EU didn't sign the treaty. And what future value is there to non-proliferation treaty's if they don't last a decade in practice?

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by AliHajiSheik View Post
    Seems like those parts of Ukraine are no different than the Sudetenland. History does seem to keep repeating itself.
    What we are experiencing is the expected development towards a multi polar structure of International security after a time of the relative stability from first MAD and later mono polar power. The situation should deteriorate considerably by mid century allowing for world war in the second half, if we do not internalize security at a supranational level. Should we not succeed in doing the latter, watch and weep.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    Quote Originally Posted by PoS View Post
    Yes, I believe it was called the Budapest memorandum sometime in the mid 1990's. US did sign onto that.
    The Memorandum dealt with Ukraine's giving up its nuclear weapons. The U.S., Russia, among others made commitments not to intervene in Ukraine, not to use nuclear weapons in any conflict against Ukraine, etc. There were no binding defense commitments should one or more parties violate the terms of the Memorandum.

    Ukraine is not a member of NATO, either. Hence, the U.S. has no commitments to defend Ukraine should Russia choose to use force.

    Should Russia do so--and it's unclear whether the gunmen in Crimea are Russian proxies or acting with recognition that Russia will not move to thwart them in tit-for-tat fashion for the West's silence when the brokered deal between the ousted President and political opposition immediately began to collapse--the West should take non-military measures to pressure Russia.

    The exception might be if parties in Ukraine tried to seize or interfere with Russia's naval base at Sevastopol. There are some reports that Russia may have moved in a limited fashion in that vicinity to safeguard the base, but there's a lot of uncertainty concerning those reports. In any case, Russia would have a legitimate right to act to secure that base were it to be threatened. Beyond that, Russia and any other outside party should exercise restraint. The focus should be on developing an approach to help the emerging Ukranian government attain stability, acquire assistance in addressing Ukraine's deep financial challenges, and assure that it respects all Ukrainian residents/does not act opportunistically against Ukraine's ethnic Russian minority.

    Finally, given Russia's interests and the consequences to those interests from Ukraine's change of government, one should not be surprised if Russia uses its natural gas as leverage and if Russia decides to cancel its prior financial commitments to Kiev. Russia may or may not go beyond reviewing its bilateral commitments e.g., it may not necessarily use its position on international bodies to obstruct assistance to Ukraine.

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    Re: Ukraine accuses Russia of Occupation calls for help from US/UK

    I'm sure if the commandos in Ukraine are captured or killed, Russia will disavow them.

    However...

    Russian helicopters fly over Crimea - Ukraine border guards | Reuters


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