Look...lets be real. The ACA isnt going to be around in 2024 when the final estimates are expected to be realized. Second, the CBO estimates are tripe. Their own words and reality show that they have millions fewer enrolled than what they projected, and yet, they project surplus in revenues vs decreases. OK...set THAT aside. They estimate that while they have a small fraction of enrollees currently that it should all change and be close to goals by March...the open enrollment period. Sure...OK...take THAT on faith, ignore the numbers and set THAT aside. The CBO has underestimate the new enrollees in government provided care. OK...set THAT aside.
"The ACA includes a range of provisions that will take full effect over the next several years and that will influence the supply of and demand for labor through various channels. For example, some provisions will raise effective tax rates on earnings from labor and thus will reduce the amount of labor that some workers choose to supply. In particular, the health insurance subsidies that the act provides to some people will be phased out as their income rises—creating an implicit tax on additional earnings— whereas for other people, the act imposes higher taxes on labor income directly. The ACA also will exert conflicting pressures on the quantity of labor that employers demand, primarily during the next few years."
"The reduction in CBO’s projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024."
"Although CBO projects that total employment (and compensation) will increase over the coming decade, that increase will be smaller than it would
have been in the absence of the ACA. The decline in full-time-equivalent employment stemming from the ACA will consist of some people not being employed at all and other people working fewer hours"
and here is where it goes totally political and wonky...
"The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses’ demand for labor, so it will appear almost entirely as a reduction in labor force participation and in hours worked relative to what would have occurred otherwise "
Hogwash. ASSUMING their estimates are correct, the ABSOLUTE REALITY is that as an employER...my employee requirements are NOT dictated by how many hours my employees choose to work. If there s a demand or need for labor...I WILL fill that demand. If there is NOT a demand, JOBS have been adversely impacted. There is no way around that reality.