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Thread: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

  1. #51
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Sure you do....Here I'll give you a link....

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    I've already said that I understand that...And further, I have said that even if you take the numbers out of it, the trend itself is astonishing, and although the market is much larger today than in 1930, it still would not be a good thing to see that sort of drop now would it?

    You whole argument is that we won't suffer as much because the market is so much bigger, but I say that even a drop like that today would still hurt, and many would suffer...But I understand real people don't matter when dismissing bad news these days.
    My argument is that if you are going to present information, present it in an honest manner, explain the information and what it probably means

    The two charts are not comparable, and so the chart and any argument based on it is faulty. If the goal is to say the the stock market is overvalued then present information that supports that theory

    Chose a wide variety of measures, from P/E ratios, generally the most common, state if profits for companies are going down, which also is strong indicator the stock market will drop if it has not already.

    Or if the issue is the economy and the debt, make your argument based on those two issues, government debt is very high, so is personal debt levels, corporate debt has dropped. Mention that the housing market has stalled at least for the last month and that unemployment is still high 4 years after the end of the last rather large recession, state that we are due for another recession in the next couple of years, and that the consumer, and governments are in much financially worse positions to deal with another recession. Which means the next recession is likely to be large as well, potentially worse then the 2008 one
    Last edited by Lord Tammerlain; 02-13-14 at 11:33 PM.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    First off, let me just say that after reading 4 pages of this thread, the only two people who made sense were jmodivator and polgara. They stayed on point and didn't get wrapped up in the emotions of the moment. Kudos to both of you.

    Next, I'm calling foul on the OP chart for two reasons:

    1. It compares the economic indicators of a 1 year period (1928-1929) to a 21 month long period (07/2012 - 04/2014). That's comparing apples to oranges no matter how you slice it.

    2. If folks would just go to any present-day DJIA chart, i.e., CNNMoney.com, CNBC.com, NYSE.com, or any other legitimate and well respected market news source and just pull up the last 1-2 year periods, you'd see that the economic curves aren't even close to what we saw in 1928-1929!

    Let's really compare...

    Chart from Market Watch in OP:

    Attachment 67161953

    Present-Day Charts...

    From CNNMoney.com:

    Attachment 67162104

    From CNBC.com:

    Attachment 67162105

    From NYSE.com*

    Attachment 67162106

    *NYSE only provides a 1-year look-back

    So, while it's important to take a look back in history and see where we were then and compare "then" to "now", you have to rely on real data not illusions. And the fact is the economic curves that illustrate the two time periods aren't even close! This isn't liberal bias or conjecture. This is real evident from today taken from economic reporting sources we all rely on daily, not some fear mongering partisan rag like Market Watch. I mean, this is a so-called insider news organization that predicate massive inflation by 2012 and $5 galloon milk by 2014. I just bought two galloons of milk yesterday @ $2.45. There's your $5/gal. there, boi!!

    Holla!
    Last edited by Objective Voice; 02-15-14 at 12:28 PM.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    A crash is plausible, hopefully we would have people smart enough to slowly stop the bad cash injections to force a gradual correction but the closer we get to elections the less likely that scenario becomes. I would rather we back off of the constant QE programs and get back to actual value before it comes to a crash scenario. The big issue with printing is at some point the presses will stop, whether that is because the value of currency is so inflated that it can no longer sustain viability in the market, OR because inflation is so bad that people are taking a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread and demand that the presses stop(but at that point it's nearly impossible to bring the value back).
    They are gradually backing off the QE.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    A crash is plausible, hopefully we would have people smart enough to slowly stop the bad cash injections to force a gradual correction but the closer we get to elections the less likely that scenario becomes. I would rather we back off of the constant QE programs and get back to actual value before it comes to a crash scenario. The big issue with printing is at some point the presses will stop, whether that is because the value of currency is so inflated that it can no longer sustain viability in the market, OR because inflation is so bad that people are taking a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread and demand that the presses stop(but at that point it's nearly impossible to bring the value back).
    It is blatantly obvious that this "crash" BS is nothing but political wishful thinking on your part. There is low inflation because QE has prevented DEFLATION which is now worrying Europeans. Stock prices are increasing mostly because of corporate PROFITS which are climbing.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    The gains at that time were based upon unbacked margin used to purchase stocks which resulted in widespread panic and a large correction that lasted till WWII. The current "boom" is based upon inflated dollars being pumped into the market which is basically just government issued "margin" in the form of "stimulus". If they keep on this track a reset will take a long time to correct values and will be painful. In both cases, the market was inflated by dollars that just weren't there.
    The way to fix that is simple.

    TAKE CONTROL AWAY FROM PURE CAPITALIST AND PUT IT IN THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE!

    Buy bonds. If you're as much of a patriot you claim you are (not speaking to you directly, but to everyone in general), they start taking on some of our nation's sovereign debt. I hear so many people complain about how foreign investors like China are buy our debt, how commercial banks and the auto industry both got their bailouts and how QE is hurting investor confidence. If people - hard working, middle-class Americans were smart - they'd recognize that money is power and if the 99% started investing in this country by purchasing its commercial paper, eventually the politicians wouldn't play so lose with our nation's creditworthiness, the FedResv wouldn't keep the interest rate on bond so artificially low (though I understand why that's happening and why a slow up-tic is required) and WE, THE PEOPLE would feel like we have a voice because we'd have more "skin in the game".

    Buy Treasure bonds and force Congress and Corporate America to listen to your voices. I know the rates are low now, but they can't stay that way for much longer. I already have my financial plan set to go into effect by March.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Objective Voice View Post
    The way to fix that is simple.

    TAKE CONTROL AWAY FROM PURE CAPITALIST AND PUT IT IN THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE!
    Do you assume market manipulation to be capitalism? That would be the first mistake, corporatism is the bastard stepchild of economics, it engages in power plays, deception, and market manipulation to get the desired numbers. This involves politicians, dumb laws to eliminate competition by pricing them out of the market(or at least limiting their growth), favorable laws to insure that a financial channel remains open to a power player(like Buffet fighting the oil pipeline because his trains move a lot of oil at a premium). Capitalism depends on two things, the "free hand" which requires consumers and suppliers to trade unmolested by outside forces, the other thing it requires is an ethical exchange neither of the two can happen in a manipulated market(i.e. overregulation, overtaxed, money manipulation, fraud).

    Buy bonds. If you're as much of a patriot you claim you are (not speaking to you directly, but to everyone in general), they start taking on some of our nation's sovereign debt. I hear so many people complain about how foreign investors like China are buy our debt, how commercial banks and the auto industry both got their bailouts and how QE is hurting investor confidence. If people - hard working, middle-class Americans were smart - they'd recognize that money is power and if the 99% started investing in this country by purchasing its commercial paper, eventually the politicians wouldn't play so lose with our nation's creditworthiness, the FedResv wouldn't keep the interest rate on bond so artificially low (though I understand why that's happening and why a slow up-tic is required) and WE, THE PEOPLE would feel like we have a voice because we'd have more "skin in the game".
    It's not so simple, buying bonds funds the very mechanism that allows corporatism to flourish. Buying bonds directly pays into the programs that the bonds are tied to, so if one doesn't like fiat currency already then they are funding it with T-bills, if one doesn't like social programs then they would be funding it with. Bonds, like stocks, are funding mechanisms and the government is even less accountable at this time than corporations, no thank you but I would rather starve the beast.

    Buy Treasure bonds and force Congress and Corporate America to listen to your voices. I know the rates are low now, but they can't stay that way for much longer. I already have my financial plan set to go into effect by March.
    Again, and this is the problem, as long as they can fund expansion they will expand. The more they expand the more stupidity they are capable of. As much as I hate to say this we are on this course until either we get a very good representation or the fiat system crashes.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    Do you assume market manipulation to be capitalism? That would be the first mistake, corporatism is the bastard stepchild of economics, it engages in power plays, deception, and market manipulation to get the desired numbers. This involves politicians, dumb laws to eliminate competition by pricing them out of the market(or at least limiting their growth), favorable laws to insure that a financial channel remains open to a power player(like Buffet fighting the oil pipeline because his trains move a lot of oil at a premium). Capitalism depends on two things, the "free hand" which requires consumers and suppliers to trade unmolested by outside forces, the other thing it requires is an ethical exchange neither of the two can happen in a manipulated market(i.e. overregulation, overtaxed, money manipulation, fraud).

    It's not so simple, buying bonds funds the very mechanism that allows corporatism to flourish. Buying bonds directly pays into the programs that the bonds are tied to, so if one doesn't like fiat currency already then they are funding it with T-bills, if one doesn't like social programs then they would be funding it with. Bonds, like stocks, are funding mechanisms and the government is even less accountable at this time than corporations, no thank you but I would rather starve the beast.

    Again, and this is the problem, as long as they can fund expansion they will expand. The more they expand the more stupidity they are capable of. As much as I hate to say this we are on this course until either we get a very good representation or the fiat system crashes.
    if the entire world converted to one currency, the economic effects would probably be disastrous.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    if the entire world converted to one currency, the economic effects would probably be disastrous.
    I don't advocate for a global monetary standard, trust me. What we need is an appropriate valuation of our own currency, that is going to be very difficult but at some point it will be a necessity.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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