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Thread: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    I used to think that. Once you educate yourself and understand how everything works, it paints a very different picture. There is reality and then there is the alternate reality that is used as a weapon.
    That's a huge crock. Both sides of the political spectrum in the USA are two sides of the same coin. Nether represent the interests of the constituency. If they did Bush and now Obama would not have some of the worst poll numbers in history. The people have been screwed by half baked laws and bought career politicians from sea to shining sea.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    I used to think that. Once you educate yourself and understand how everything works, it paints a very different picture. There is reality and then there is the alternate reality that is used as a weapon.
    Course their is.....
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Robbie Loucks View Post
    I didn't know we had a liberal book.

    Sure you do....Here I'll give you a link....

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

    Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

    The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

    Attachment 67161953

    It's a frighteningly tight fit!

    So, anyway..
    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Yeah, I posted this as a tag on to a thread yesterday....So far I have been called every name in the liberal book, while libs dismiss the chart.
    Take a look at the scales on the chart

    The 1929 one nearly doubles in the time frame from 200 to about 380

    The 2012 goes from 12400 to 16400, a much smaller increase of around 30%

    The chart creator was counting on idiots to look at the lines and ignore the scale for each line. It looks like he found an audience
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Take a look at the scales on the chart

    The 1929 one nearly doubles in the time frame from 200 to about 380

    The 2012 goes from 12400 to 16400, a much smaller increase of around 30%

    The chart creator was counting on idiots to look at the lines and ignore the scale for each line. It looks like he found an audience
    I've already said that I understand that...And further, I have said that even if you take the numbers out of it, the trend itself is astonishing, and although the market is much larger today than in 1930, it still would not be a good thing to see that sort of drop now would it?

    You whole argument is that we won't suffer as much because the market is so much bigger, but I say that even a drop like that today would still hurt, and many would suffer...But I understand real people don't matter when dismissing bad news these days.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    I've already said that I understand that...And further, I have said that even if you take the numbers out of it, the trend itself is astonishing, and although the market is much larger today than in 1930, it still would not be a good thing to see that sort of drop now would it?

    You whole argument is that we won't suffer as much because the market is so much bigger, but I say that even a drop like that today would still hurt, and many would suffer...But I understand real people don't matter when dismissing bad news these days.
    :roll| appeal to emotions.

    Look, this is not evidence that a major downturn is coming. The magnitude is wildly different, and the couple years before 1928 don't match the last few years.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    I highly doubt that there is an impending market crash such as was back in 1929. The fundamentals then and now aren't really even close to being the same.

    Yes, there is a correction due, as one could legitimately argue that the market is overvalued.
    Yes, there will be an impact when the fed withdraws or tapers down the QE crack that the market is on right now.

    But a crash? Like 1929? No, don't think so. Highly unlikely.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

    Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

    The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

    Attachment 67161953

    It's a frighteningly tight fit!

    So, anyway..
    The gains at that time were based upon unbacked margin used to purchase stocks which resulted in widespread panic and a large correction that lasted till WWII. The current "boom" is based upon inflated dollars being pumped into the market which is basically just government issued "margin" in the form of "stimulus". If they keep on this track a reset will take a long time to correct values and will be painful. In both cases, the market was inflated by dollars that just weren't there.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Higgins86 View Post
    I read all these pages with liberal posters blaming cons and vice versa, when will everyone accept that this problem is worldwide caused by both sides of the political spectrum? All we are doing now is passing the blame and prolonging the inevitable.
    Absolutely. The left and right both realized a long time ago that economic data doesn't have to be good, it just has to appear to be good for election cycles, they also know that pumping inflated currency into a market appears on the surface to be good because the numbers skew upwards, it's fine to have market gains as long as the value in the market is close to the numbers shown, but when a lot of people enter into a market based upon inflated values whether that is because of margin purchases or endless streams of printed dollars there is much less actual value in the market than is presented which leads to correction, in the case of economics correction is a good and bad thing, it's good because it will force the value back to it's actual proximity but bad in that a lot of people will be hurt.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by eohrnberger View Post
    I highly doubt that there is an impending market crash such as was back in 1929. The fundamentals then and now aren't really even close to being the same.

    Yes, there is a correction due, as one could legitimately argue that the market is overvalued.
    Yes, there will be an impact when the fed withdraws or tapers down the QE crack that the market is on right now.

    But a crash? Like 1929? No, don't think so. Highly unlikely.
    A crash is plausible, hopefully we would have people smart enough to slowly stop the bad cash injections to force a gradual correction but the closer we get to elections the less likely that scenario becomes. I would rather we back off of the constant QE programs and get back to actual value before it comes to a crash scenario. The big issue with printing is at some point the presses will stop, whether that is because the value of currency is so inflated that it can no longer sustain viability in the market, OR because inflation is so bad that people are taking a wheelbarrow full of money to buy a loaf of bread and demand that the presses stop(but at that point it's nearly impossible to bring the value back).
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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