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Thread: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

  1. #21
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    A fairly useless chart actually, and a highly misleading one to boot. The y axis is skewed in order to convey the idea that an increase of nearly 100 percent in the year 28-29 is proportional to an increase of less than a third. No surprise though. Every run of success the DJIA has enjoyed in recent memory has been compared to the run-up to the Depression by those who profit off of "scary" and "alternative" analysis.
    The Y axis percentage fit is a better argument than the X axis, that is for sure, but that doesn't actually change the correlation. This kind of demonstrative fit isn't uncommon. You don't even need the to graphs to share the same a data source for a Y axis fit. One chart can have, for example, a Y axis that is CO2 concentration and a second Y axis that is Global Temperature anomaly, and both are scaled to fit in the same graph. So having 1928 DJIA and current DJIA scaled to fit the same graph isn't heresy when all you are doing is showing a correlation.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Yeah, I posted this as a tag on to a thread yesterday....So far I have been called every name in the liberal book, while libs dismiss the chart.
    Hah... yeah.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    It's going as planned...

    Unemployment drops but those out of the workforce continue to rise - now at it's highest level in 35 years.
    A declining unemployment rate validates your prediction of a depression? All hail the mighty LFPR!

    The stock market is a risky business..
    As opposed to when exactly? If you're not interested in risks, buy bonds or stay out the market entirely.

    and pretty much no one with expendable funds wants to invest in the market..
    Yeah? Who's doing all the investing?

    If it matters the beginning has already happened
    4 to 5 years ago actually. I'm sure you'll take credit when the next recession occurs though, no matter how many years down the road. It's the doomsday mantra.

    and since we're a faith based economy may delusional people refuse to acknowledge reality or economic reality.
    Words cannot properly describe the amount of irony here.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The Y axis percentage fit is a better argument than the X axis, that is for sure, but that doesn't actually change the correlation. This kind of demonstrative fit isn't uncommon. You don't even need the to graphs to share the same a data source for a Y axis fit. One chart can have, for example, a Y axis that is CO2 concentration and a second Y axis that is Global Temperature anomaly, and both are scaled to fit in the same graph. So having 1928 DJIA and current DJIA scaled to fit the same graph isn't heresy when all you are doing is showing a correlation.
    You don't think magnitude matters? Come on man, this is just silly.

    Slowdown or weakness is always a risk, but a crash? If you understand the fundamentals of economics, there's no reason for a crash right now.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    A declining unemployment rate validates your prediction of a depression? All hail the mighty LFPR!



    As opposed to when exactly? If you're not interested in risks, buy bonds or stay out the market entirely.



    Yeah? Who's doing all the investing?



    4 to 5 years ago actually. I'm sure you'll take credit when the next recession occurs though, no matter how many years down the road. It's the doomsday mantra.



    Words cannot properly describe the amount of irony here.
    You didn't read one ****ing thing I posted did you...

    And a declining unemployment rate with the highest percentage of working individuals NOT in the workforce equals BAD ****ING NEWS.

    You do realize unemployment statistics are nothing more than those currently working divided by those currently receiving unemployment benefits? - of course that doesn't speak for the 90 million that don't receive unemployment and or gave up looking for employment... That number is astronomical - our true unemployment rate is at like 30%.

    Learn something before you ever address me in another post EVER.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Ehh...the Dow in 1927 (to show a 2 year rally) went from around 150 to 381. Over double the value.
    The current rally for the past 2 years goes 13,000 ish to a high of 16,577.

    2 years isn't a big deal for inflation (comparing 2012-14 or 1927-29) but using an inflation adjusted DOW for other years we're not very far from the high's in 96 or even the 2006 peak.

    Adjusted for inflation the 1929 Dow Jones wasn't hit again after the Great Depression until the late 1960's to just give you some perspective on how inflated that market was. Even the majority of the 50's was spent with a market only half as high as the 1929 pre crash market.

    But this isn't actually arguing causation, only correlation. So, for instance, if the correlation were to continue the end result would be the DOW losing all of its gains of the last 2 years and falling to 13,500 this year. That wouldn't be happy times.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    You didn't read one ****ing thing I posted did you...
    Probably one too many.

    And a declining unemployment rate with the highest percentage of working individuals NOT in the workforce equals BAD ****ING NEWS.
    A declining participation rate isn't positive news. That does not equal a recession or a depression anywhere outside of Mr Nick madhatterville.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    You do realize unemployment statistics are nothing more than those currently working divided by those currently receiving unemployment benefits?
    Wrong. As pointed out to you by multiple posters. You simply have zero clue what you're talking about as usual.

    - of course that doesn't speak for the 90 million that don't receive unemployment and or gave up looking for employment... That number is astronomical - our true unemployment rate is at like 30%.
    Yeah. If you count all the retirees, students and full time parents as unemployed the number would be pretty high alright. Kids too. ****ing moochers all!

    Learn something before you ever address me in another post EVER.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    You don't think magnitude matters? Come on man, this is just silly.

    Slowdown or weakness is always a risk, but a crash? If you understand the fundamentals of economics, there's no reason for a crash right now.
    I never said it didn't matter. If the correlation held true we would be expecting a rapid 2300 point correction this year. That isn't good times.
    Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a man to fish and he stops voting for the Free Fish party.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    I never said it didn't matter. If the correlation held true we would be expecting a rapid 2300 point correction this year. That isn't good times.
    There is no correlation without a correlating magnitude. Comparing the two charts is apples and potatoes, it makes zero sense and means nothing.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Probably one too many.



    A declining participation rate isn't positive news. That does not equal a recession or a depression anywhere outside of Mr Nick madhatterville.



    Wrong. As pointed out to you by multiple posters. You simply have zero clue what you're talking about as usual.



    Yeah. If you count all the retirees, students and full time parents as unemployed the number would be pretty high alright. Kids too. ****ing moochers all!

    Yes a declining unemployment rate is good news to those who get their news via progressive media outlets, while the unskilled, overskilled, purged and laid off rise to 90 million workers currently NOT in the work force or are taking some remedial job getting paid cash under the table is NOT good sign of economic growth, what those numbers are saying is that 1/3rd of us work full time tax paying jobs and the other 2/3rds don't and now have to rely on government somehow-someway, of course that is the easy way out and how democrats get paid for their votes. If you want that government gravy rolling you better vote for a "D" but for a price they will make sure you're their Pinocchio.....

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