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Thread: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Obviously "past performance is not indicative of future performance" rules apply here, but it is certainly a bit chilling!

    Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

    The talk is all about a chart that takes the last 19 months of DJIA results and compares them to the 19 months leading up to the great depression:

    Attachment 67161953

    It's a frighteningly tight fit!

    So, anyway..
    4-5 years ago I predicted a double dip and then a depression...

    Obamacare, Obama and his hate for capitalism and business (small business), new regulations and a house that pretty much agrees with progressives and a senate dominated by progressives will bring our economy to it's knees.

    Our federal government is extremely hostile to business - Obamacare only made that worse. Obamacare forces small businesses to cut hours and have a boat load of part time workers, and even then the successful businesses are being bought out by giants in the industry for their assets or to just squash competition.

    Obviously my concerns cannot be summarized in a brief post but we are going down hill.

    Obama and his minions are doing everything in their power to bankrupt the United States, kill jobs and get the majority of the populace reliant on government to put food on their table and cloth and educated their children...... They don't need guns or an army to do this - just a pen and the right legislators....

    As they say - the fountain pen is mightier than the sword.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The argument tends to revolve around the x axis fit. The problem with that argument is that an x axis fit is only really needed if you are trying to show causation. Straight correlations like this don't need the same x axis.
    Ehh...the Dow in 1927 (to show a 2 year rally) went from around 150 to 381. Over double the value.
    The current rally for the past 2 years goes 13,000 ish to a high of 16,577.

    2 years isn't a big deal for inflation (comparing 2012-14 or 1927-29) but using an inflation adjusted DOW for other years we're not very far from the high's in 96 or even the 2006 peak.

    Adjusted for inflation the 1929 Dow Jones wasn't hit again after the Great Depression until the late 1960's to just give you some perspective on how inflated that market was. Even the majority of the 50's was spent with a market only half as high as the 1929 pre crash market.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Conservative policies caused this? LOL You must live in Colorado or Washington.
    I don't. Yes, I am entirely convinced that the policies I voted for, or at least the Republicans that touted and installed them, have failed to work even though those policies have been escalated greatly since I quit voting for them in 2000.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Conservative policies caused this?

    LOL

    You must live in Colorado or Washington.
    I didn't even know conservatives had policies, just unmeaningful bulletin points and buzzwords.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Morality Games View Post
    I didn't even know conservatives had policies, just unmeaningful bulletin points and buzzwords.
    Fair enough when discussing current decade, but previously they did plenty as did the DLC which was just Conservatism-Lite.
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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Eh, it's all good. It's just my retirement money that I have invested. It's not like I am going to lose all my non-existent capital gains! Eat that, rich people!
    Hail to the King baby!

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The problem with that argument is that an x axis fit is only really needed if you are trying to show causation. Straight correlations like this don't need the same x axis.
    You can't be serious.

    WTF is that even supposed to mean?

    If I skew the perspective of the image of an anthill I can make it appear to correlate to Mt. Everest.

    I'd have to be a ****ing idiot to accept that a contrived correlation is representative of anything significant.

    Here's an image of DJIA inflation for the two periods shown in proper perspective:

    dow-jones-industrial-average-start-of-period-100-current-mar-1928-nov-1929_chartbuilder1.jpg

    I'll add the heading: "Move along folks, nothing to see here.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Nick View Post
    4-5 years ago I predicted a double dip and then a depression...
    How'd that work out for ya?

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Yeah, I posted this as a tag on to a thread yesterday....So far I have been called every name in the liberal book, while libs dismiss the chart.
    The criticism isnt a liberal-conservative thing. Its an honesty in data thing.

    For starters,
    Look at the right hand scale and the left hand scale. Totally different. We see a rise of about 100% in one, and a rise of about 35% in the other. I bet you could fiddle with scales and find a million of these matching charts in the last 100 years.. probably in every single market rise.

    Secondly, look at the chart before that time. 1929 was at the end of a huge, huge bull market. At the start of your chart, the DJIA had already TRIPLED Iit was about 63 in 1922) with almost no pullbacks from 1922-1928, Thats kinda important for comparison, dontcha think?

    Third, the DJIA is not a real good way to judge the stock market these days. It was probably better in 1930, but right now its just 30 companies.. and they arent even necessarily the largest.

    Its a great chart for someone who is hawking gold, though. Easy to reel those suckers in with bad math.
    Many Trump supporters have lots of problems, and those deplorables are bringing those problems to us. They’re racists. They’re misogynists. They’re islamophobic. They're xenophobes and homophobes. And some, I assume, are good people.

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    Re: Scary 1929 Market Chart gains traction

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    How'd that work out for ya?
    It's going as planned...

    Unemployment drops but those out of the workforce continue to rise - now at it's highest level in 35 years. The stock market is a risky business and pretty much no one with expendable funds wants to invest in the market..

    If it matters the beginning has already happened, and since we're a faith based economy may delusional people refuse to acknowledge reality or economic reality.

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