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Thread: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'[W:88]

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    U-4 includes discourage workers. Discouraged workers are individuals that specifically state they are not looking for a job because of market conditions. This number was 7.2% in December
    U-6 includes persons "marginally attached to the labor force".

    No the U6 number is used because it's remarkably higher than the U-3 number . A lot of people are used to hearing the u-3 number used so in good times they associate a 4% unemployment rate as normal. When they hear 14% U-6 used by some folks as the "real unemployment number" then they think "wow! It's much higher than normal". Even during the 90's U-6 hovered around 9%.
    U5 is the one that adds marginally attached workers, not U6. U6 adds part timers that want full time work, and the marginally attached.

    What we have today, is a dramatic shift to workers only showing up in the surveys if you examine U4, U5, and U6. Unfortunately, they haven't surveyed those rates prior to 1994, so we can't really see a long term view, although in the late nineties, U6 dropped from 10% to 7% by 2002. U6 appears to be a leading indicator to a recession, as it shows movement long before U3 does.

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    I asked the question because subjective numbers, and political appointees, are usually a poor mix when so much is made of the end result.
    Oh...gotcha.

    The numbers are based on a survey to employers and a survey to households. If the BLS lied about the numbers it would be a pretty big scandal since they report an economic metric that is used global and trillions ride on their monthly report. In fact due to the importance only a handful of people actually know the numbers before they are released. They have different people working on different portions because getting those numbers early could result in huge potential money.

    I guess it's possible an administration COULD fudge the numbers but not in a way that you could hide. Most of those statisticians have worked in the BLS forever. Here is a quote from a former BLS head
    Keith Hall, who served as Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics from 2008 until 2012, said in an interview Friday that there is no way someone at the agency could change any of the data from its two monthly employment surveys. The significant improvement in the unemployment rate may reflect normal statistical errors in the sampling process, he said, but that has nothing to do with manipulation.
    “There’s nothing wrong with the numbers,” said Mr. Hall. “The only issue is the interpretation of the numbers. The numbers are what they are.”
    For September, the politically important unemployment rate fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1% the prior month, according to the Labor Department. That was the lowest level since January 2009 and well below the 8.1% forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The unemployment rate estimate is derived from a survey of households, which came up with an estimate that 863,000 jobs were added for the month.
    But the separate establishment survey from which the official payrolls number is derived reported a more modest seasonally adjusted gain of 114,000 jobs in September. That was below the consensus forecast of 118,000, though the previous two months were revised higher.
    Mr. Hall said the inconsistent reports reflect the different samples used in the two surveys, one focused on households the other on businesses. The establishment survey has a huge sample size of 141,000 business and agencies covering 486,000 worksites, whereas the household survey covers just 60,000 homes.
    “The household survey is much smaller. When you look at something like labor force and employment levels, the uncertainty of those numbers is much larger,” said Mr. Hall. “Within two months, the household survey could show the unemployment rate eking back up.”
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Oh...gotcha.

    The numbers are based on a survey to employers and a survey to households. If the BLS lied about the numbers it would be a pretty big scandal since they report an economic metric that is used global and trillions ride on their monthly report. In fact due to the importance only a handful of people actually know the numbers before they are released. They have different people working on different portions because getting those numbers early could result in huge potential money.

    I guess it's possible an administration COULD fudge the numbers but not in a way that you could hide. Most of those statisticians have worked in the BLS forever. Here is a quote from a former BLS head
    As Mr. Hall stated, it's "the interpretation of the numbers".

    As a baby boomer myself, I am aware with how many of us have decided to continue working well beyond that time which statistically, we have retired in the past. Add in the impact of the recession, and far more are working than had planned to, or what one would have expected. Since the retirement numbers are derived from those supplied by the US Census, it's a variable with great impact.

    Consider the role the labor force participation rate has had in pushing down the published unemployment rate over the last 5 years. It's not unreasonable to seek clarification of this "mulitplier" considering the political weight the number carries.

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by Samhain View Post
    U5 is the one that adds marginally attached workers, not U6. U6 adds part timers that want full time work, and the marginally attached.
    Sure but U-6 includes individuals marginally attached to the workforce. That's the main point. Also...people that are working part time (less than 35) but want full time work is a problem...but it's not unemployed. Someone working say 33 hours a week is not the same as someone that can't find a job. Like I said...I agree it's a problem but it's also another trend that has been occurring for awhile.

    What we have today, is a dramatic shift to workers only showing up in the surveys if you examine U4, U5, and U6. Unfortunately, they haven't surveyed those rates prior to 1994, so we can't really see a long term view, although in the late nineties, U6 dropped from 10% to 7% by 2002.
    The 7% number you point to was way outside the average. That 7% is most likely a historical low just like the U3 was at a historical low those years.

    Economist have compiled what they believe the U6 numbers have been in US history before we officially started posting the number.
    U3U5UnemploymentGreatDepression.jpg
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by US Conservative View Post
    Folks, we can't keep this up, the numbers released by the Obama administration after 5 years of failed policies and smoke and mirrors are damning. 92 million outside the workforce. The jobs added are crap. This is what the democrat party gets us. Take a look at these trends.

    People Not In Labor Force Soar To Record 91.8 Million; Participation Rate Plunges To 1978 Levels | Zero Hedge

    So your graph shows that participation has been in steady decline since Bush took office. And people not in labor force has been on a steady rise since Bush 1 was in office. And this is all Obama's fault how?
    Killing one person is murder, killing 100,000 is foreign policy

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by Montecresto View Post
    So your graph shows that participation has been in steady decline since Bush took office. And people not in labor force has been on a steady rise since Bush 1 was in office. And this is all Obama's fault how?
    It shows Obama's policies do not work. The democrat party is useless.

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    As Mr. Hall stated, it's "the interpretation of the numbers".
    Sure interpretation is open but the U-6 is the U-6. The U-3 is the U-3. The number of individuals that claim to leave the workforce due economic factors are the individuals noted to leave the workforce due to economic factors. There's no doubt it's open to interpretation as we're arguing now. Yes the labor force participation rate is dropping but why?

    As a baby boomer myself, I am aware with how many of us have decided to continue working well beyond that time which statistically, we have retired in the past. Add in the impact of the recession, and far more are working than had planned to, or what one would have expected. Since the retirement numbers are derived from those supplied by the US Census, it's a variable with great impact.
    I agree with you and have seen that to be the case as well. Keep in mind the information provided by the US census is used to calculate the weight given to different demographics. If for example in the monthly survey X% of individuals aged 55 to 64 responded that they are in the labor pool that is then weighted by the size of that age group for the overall Labor Participation Rate.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    The ghost of Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2016

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    Oh...gotcha.

    The numbers are based on a survey to employers and a survey to households. If the BLS lied about the numbers it would be a pretty big scandal since they report an economic metric that is used global and trillions ride on their monthly report. In fact due to the importance only a handful of people actually know the numbers before they are released. They have different people working on different portions because getting those numbers early could result in huge potential money.

    I guess it's possible an administration COULD fudge the numbers but not in a way that you could hide. Most of those statisticians have worked in the BLS forever. Here is a quote from a former BLS head
    It's not just the BLS that compiles these reports....The census is also involved....

    In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.
    The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
    And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
    Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.
    And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.
    “He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

    Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report | New York Post
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: Sessions: 'For Every One Job Added, Nearly 5 People Left the Workforce'

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    It's not just the BLS that compiles these reports....The census is also involved....
    Sure...if the Census Bureau or BLS lied about the numbers it would be a huge scandal.

    In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.
    The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.
    And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.
    Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.
    And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.
    “He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

    Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report | New York Post
    Ehhh...if it was true it would make major waves. It would be as big of a deal as the manipulation of the Interbank Lending rate. Do you honestly think Congressional Republicans wouldn't pursue this if it was true....
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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