The fact you are talking about "victory" in Afghanistan is just as foolish as Neocons insisting victory was possible in Iraq. This is a failure of insight into a 3rd world dictatorship put in power by United States, British and other colonialism causes that then require intervention to remove that dictatorship when they thumb their nose at their "bosses". The form of "civilization" they had was only held together by force and brutality. The religious differences and separatist movements in Iraq were set in stone before the first bomb was dropped. It was something DoD wrote papers on and others even Op-Ed it. They suggested splitting Iraq into 3 different regions two of which would be free to decide if to join Jordan, Kuwait (more then likely Iran) or create their own states. The 3 region would be come Kurdistan. Iraq would cease to exist. That's what is gonna happen. It's the only way for the violence can be controlled.
Afghanistan is the same way. When the US leaves violence is gonna go up again and the Taliban are gonna steamroll to it's power of pre-9/11. The Afghan military is only held together by foreign oversight and the knowledge that US, British and others combat troops are there. Once they are gone, those Afghans we trained for the military are just gonna leave and fight along ethnic sides. British have been floating the idea around for 2 years now. British plan calls for 8 regions. I can really only 3 being needed. Pashtuns will control one and we have to accept the fact that the Taliban will have power. This isn't some secret. It's just something that we refuse to talk about. We will have to make peace with the Taliban, they aren't going away. Just like British and Unionist in Northern Ireland had to make peace with the Provisional IRA/Sinn Fein.