paddymcdougall
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Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage
There was a heated debate on whether - and when - to go back to the polls. (I was on a couple of the email lists debating it; I'm sure it was happening even more than I saw.)
Go back in 2010? But that's an off-year election, and that tends to draw conservative voters. So I think most groups were looking at 2012.
But in Aug, 2010, Judge Walker made his ruling that Prop 8 was unconstitutional; at that point, it didn't seem the best strategy to spend the money to get an initiative on the ballot when the courts could settle it.
BEFORE the Perry vs Schwarzenegger case, a lot of people in the LGBT community did NOT want to go to the courts, for fear of what the Supreme Court would do. There were groups that did not support the Perry case at first. But it was so strong, and the lawyers were so good, that I think everyone came around to supporting that approach.
But going back to repeal Prop 8 was definitely the plan until the court case happened; but I think the general feeling was 2012 would be better than 2010, and by then it seemed unnecessary.
Just a technical point...
It wouldn't take a 4% shift. Using your 4% number that represents a 52-48% result. Prop 8 squeaked by on a narrow margin. It only takes a 2% shift to change the outcome. The outcome for California referendums are based on 50%+1 to pass.
Prop 22 (2000) passed with a 23% margin of victory. Prop 8 passed by 5%. From 2000 to 2008 that is a shift of 2.25% per year over the intervening years. If that trend continued on an upward slope, then Prop 8 would have been repealed by the voters in 2012 if it had been on the ballot.
Personally I think there would have been a lot more capital to be made via a repeal effort instead of doing it through the courts. The court victory was a tactical victory, repeal would have been a strategic victory.
>>>>
There was a heated debate on whether - and when - to go back to the polls. (I was on a couple of the email lists debating it; I'm sure it was happening even more than I saw.)
Go back in 2010? But that's an off-year election, and that tends to draw conservative voters. So I think most groups were looking at 2012.
But in Aug, 2010, Judge Walker made his ruling that Prop 8 was unconstitutional; at that point, it didn't seem the best strategy to spend the money to get an initiative on the ballot when the courts could settle it.
BEFORE the Perry vs Schwarzenegger case, a lot of people in the LGBT community did NOT want to go to the courts, for fear of what the Supreme Court would do. There were groups that did not support the Perry case at first. But it was so strong, and the lawyers were so good, that I think everyone came around to supporting that approach.
But going back to repeal Prop 8 was definitely the plan until the court case happened; but I think the general feeling was 2012 would be better than 2010, and by then it seemed unnecessary.