Page 85 of 152 FirstFirst ... 3575838485868795135 ... LastLast
Results 841 to 850 of 1516

Thread: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage[W:780]

  1. #841
    Sage
    roguenuke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Last Seen
    05-17-17 @ 05:55 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    28,935

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Morton View Post
    The first article supports my point:

    The discrepancy? African American voters, who were overwhelmingly in favor of banning same sex marriage (70 percent supported Proposition 8) even as they supported Obama even more heavily (94 percent). And, to a lesser degree, Hispanic voters followed that same trend -- backing Prop. 8 by a 53 percent to 47 percent margin while giving President Obama 74 percent.


    The explanation? Many largely black churches supported Prop. 8 while Hispanics, a heavily Catholic community, were more naturally inclined to side with their faith -- and against gay marriage.

    The second article is an opinion piece and the NY Times blog (surprise!) only looks at first time voters.

    Nothing has been "debunked". Just opinions and strawman arguments
    They both debunk your contention that public opinion on same sex marriage has not shifted over the last 5 years. It simply is not true. The vast majority of experts in sociology, voting statistics/predicting, and politics in general will tell you that public support for same sex marriage in California, like the rest of the country, has increased in the last 5 years and it is highly unlikely that Prop 8 would pass if a vote were taken now, or even a couple of years ago.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  2. #842
    Banned Morton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    So Cal
    Last Seen
    01-15-14 @ 10:26 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    344

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    I fully believe that opinions on same sex marriages have changed - my point was that you're not going to see a dramatic shift in CA since it already had strong support. Show me some numbers on changes in african american/hispanic opinion and you may have something since my argument is that the turnout of these two groups - or at least blacks - swung the vote. Polls are polls, elections are elections.

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    They both debunk your contention that public opinion on same sex marriage has not shifted over the last 5 years. It simply is not true. The vast majority of experts in sociology, voting statistics/predicting, and politics in general will tell you that public support for same sex marriage in California, like the rest of the country, has increased in the last 5 years and it is highly unlikely that Prop 8 would pass if a vote were taken now, or even a couple of years ago.

  3. #843
    Sage
    roguenuke's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Last Seen
    05-17-17 @ 05:55 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Moderate
    Posts
    28,935

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Morton View Post
    I fully believe that opinions on same sex marriages have changed - my point was that you're not going to see a dramatic shift in CA since it already had strong support. Show me some numbers on changes in african american/hispanic opinion and you may have something since my argument is that the turnout of these two groups - or at least blacks - swung the vote. Polls are polls, elections are elections.
    It still saw a shift. And the vote had a margin of 4%. It wouldn't take a major shift, but in reality, you can't show that there wouldn't be a major shift still. Many people have publicly expressed their shift in opinion on this matter and there are still older people involved in that vote in 2008 that may no longer be with us, replaced by younger people.
    "A woman is like a teabag, you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water." - Eleanor Roosevelt

    Keep your religion out of other people's marriages.

  4. #844
    Guru
    WorldWatcher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 04:10 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    3,041

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Morton View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by WorldWatcher View Post
    African-American's voting in support of Prop 8 = 58%

    African-American's voting as a percentage of the vote in Prop 8 = 7%

    The meme that "it was blacks that passed Prop 8" is not true, actually they were 7th in line. Age, Party Affiliation, Political Leaning and Age were the highest indicators.

    The largest demographics were:

    Conservative = 82% (36% of vote count)
    Republican = 81% (34% of vote count)
    Weekly Religious Attendance = 70% (45% of vote count)
    65+ Age = 67% (23% of vote count)
    No Gay Family Members = 60% (26% of vote count)
    Hispanics = 59%% (14% of vote count)
    African-American = 58% (7% of vote count)


    http://www.thetaskforce.org/download...op8_1_6_09.pdf


    >>>>

    The percentage of vote county doesn't consider voter turnout. With 58% of black support and the increase of voter turnout by black voters, you're going to have a skew in favor of prop 8.

    Ummmm

    7% of vote count is their measurement against voter turn out. The above didn't say they were 7% of the population, it said they were 7% of the votes counted.

    Quote Originally Posted by Morton View Post
    The fact that 82% of conservatives, for example, voted for it doesn't mean it swung the vote - especially in Ca.

    So let me get this straight you think a 58% vote by 7% of the vote count had more of an influence on the outcome than an 82% vote by 36% of the vote count.

    Do you seriously just try to say that Conservatives didn't have as much impact as African-American's who voted both at a lower percentage of support and at over 5 times less in volume?


    >>>>
    Last edited by WorldWatcher; 01-01-14 at 07:00 PM.

  5. #845
    Guru
    WorldWatcher's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 04:10 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Independent
    Posts
    3,041

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    It still saw a shift. And the vote had a margin of 4%. It wouldn't take a major shift, but in reality, you can't show that there wouldn't be a major shift still. Many people have publicly expressed their shift in opinion on this matter and there are still older people involved in that vote in 2008 that may no longer be with us, replaced by younger people.
    Just a technical point...

    It wouldn't take a 4% shift. Using your 4% number that represents a 52-48% result. Prop 8 squeaked by on a narrow margin. It only takes a 2% shift to change the outcome. The outcome for California referendums are based on 50%+1 to pass.

    Prop 22 (2000) passed with a 23% margin of victory. Prop 8 passed by 5%. From 2000 to 2008 that is a shift of 2.25% per year over the intervening years. If that trend continued on an upward slope, then Prop 8 would have been repealed by the voters in 2012 if it had been on the ballot.

    Personally I think there would have been a lot more capital to be made via a repeal effort instead of doing it through the courts. The court victory was a tactical victory, repeal would have been a strategic victory.



    >>>>
    Last edited by WorldWatcher; 01-01-14 at 06:59 PM.

  6. #846
    Banned Morton's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    So Cal
    Last Seen
    01-15-14 @ 10:26 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    344

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Ok, I see what you're saying. I read it wrong. Still, the numbers look off - plus the categories overlap somewhat. 8% black turnout seems low and 58% doesn't jibe with other polls. Also, this data says that california voters are almost equally split between liberals, moderates and republicans. I don't think so, not in Liberal Land, USA. If we look for reasons why we don't have to look further than the sponsor of the "study":

    Released under the auspices of the
    National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Policy Institute.


    Its certainly not politically correct to blame prop 8 on blacks and hispanics since it weakens the special interest liberal coalition and seriously dents the narrative that only evil republicans and Xtians are against gay marriage. Thats why you see all these "studies" and "polls" and "debunking" attempts by liberal groups and media.


    Quote Originally Posted by WorldWatcher View Post
    Ummmm

    7% of vote count is their measurement against voter turn out. The above didn't say they were 7% of the poplulation, it said they were 7% of the votes counted.




    So let me get this straight you think a 58% vote by 7% of the vote count had more of an influence on the outcome than an 82% vote by 36% of the vote count.

    Do you seriously just Conservatives didn't have as much impact African-American's who voted both at a lower percentage of support and at over 5 times less in volume?


    >>>>

  7. #847
    Guru
    scatt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Last Seen
    02-09-17 @ 10:57 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,721

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by WorldWatcher View Post
    impact
    The impact is from those that were not supposed to vote for prop 8, not the ones that were.

  8. #848
    Sage
    Anthony60's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Location
    Northern New Jersey
    Last Seen
    Today @ 08:14 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    7,564

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by roguenuke View Post
    They were no longer slaves once they were freed, which was taken care of by the 13th Amendment. Which means there is no way that the 14th Amendment was meant to only protect the rights of slaves. It in fact protects the rights of all citizens, particularly from the states and the laws of the various states.
    Can you think of anything that was the impetus for these amendments? Or do you think they just came up with them out of the blue?
    "We have met the enemy and they are ours..." -- Oliver Hazard Perry
    "I don't want a piece of you... I want the whole thing!" -- Bob Barker

  9. #849
    Guru

    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Last Seen
    07-04-15 @ 04:17 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    3,032

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Morton View Post
    I fully believe that opinions on same sex marriages have changed - my point was that you're not going to see a dramatic shift in CA since it already had strong support. Show me some numbers on changes in african american/hispanic opinion and you may have something since my argument is that the turnout of these two groups - or at least blacks - swung the vote. Polls are polls, elections are elections.
    It had less than 50% support in 2010 and now it has over 60%. You may not call that dramatic; I do.

    And no, as many other posters have pointed out - black people were not enough of a %age of the vote to have swung the Prop 8 vote. Older people were much more of a factor.

  10. #850
    Guru
    scatt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Last Seen
    02-09-17 @ 10:57 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    4,721

    Re: Federal judge strikes down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by paddymcdougall View Post
    It had less than 50% support in 2010 and now it has over 60%. You may not call that dramatic; I do.

    And no, as many other posters have pointed out - black people were not enough of a %age of the vote to have swung the Prop 8 vote. Older people were much more of a factor.
    Old democrats and independents?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •