Didn't they attack Pearl Harbor or something like that?
What if the Japanese had not attacked Pearl Harbor?
by Maj. Michael Snyder, US Army
Updated 04 March 2000
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>" The operational use of Japanese Naval Aviation was designed around the IJN's strategic and operational plan to respond to a US Navy thrust to the Philippines and
force a decisive battle on Japanese terms.
The IJN recognized the US Navy as its primary foe from the end of the Russo-Japanese War. From 1906, the IJN began to craft a strategic and operational plan
for countering a US Navy thrust into the Western Pacific. Japan's naval building program was designed around the operational and tactical needs for executing the
Plan. From what we know now, the IJN was reasonably informed about US Navy strategic concepts for a war in the Pacific. Whether they knew the details or
not, or anything about the constant swings of power between the "thrusters", desiring an immediate all-out thrust to the Philippines at the start of a war and the
"cautionaries", who sought a deliberate, step by step offensive to Japan is probably moot. The US navy would come west and the IJN had to be prepared to stop
them.
Japanese scenarios start with an attack on US possessions and forces in the western Pacific, with or without a declaration of war. They then expected the US
Navy to mount an expedition, sooner or later, to relieve or recover the Philippines. With the acquisition of the Mandates, the IJN planned to enmesh the US Navy
within the Mandates in a campaign of attrition by Japanese light forces. When the American force had been sufficiently weakened, the Battle Force would sail from
the Sea of Japan and execute the "coup de grace".
By the 1930's, the IJN envisioned its light forces as consisting of land based aviation, carrier based aviation, heavy and light cruisers, destroyers and submarines,
along with some special systems "cooked up" especially for this campaign. Submarines and seaplanes would make the initial contact. They would shadow the US
force and guide other submarines and the land based aviation to the target. The submarines would begin to probe the US perimeter to distract US forces from the
oncoming bombers and torpedo planes. The submarines would also scatter mines and miniature subs in the US force's path. At night, Japanese cruisers and
destroyers would conduct long-range torpedo attacks with "Long Lances". The Japanese built special torpedo cruisers with 40 tubes installed quick reload gear for
torpedoes on their cruisers and destroyers and practiced hard at these tactics.
Once the US forces had been ground down, many ships damaged, the crews exhausted, the Japanese carriers would strike. Up to 1941, the IJN planned to use
their CVs in single carrier task forces. Thanks to Genda, the IJN developed a new doctrine and concentrated their carriers into a single strike force. They would
have struck at dawn, 4-6 CVs, dive-bombers, torpedo bombers and fighters. The fighters would have swept the skies over the Americans, and the strike forces
would have concentrated initially on the US CVs. Once the US naval aviation was broken and air superiority secured, denying use of the skies by the US
observation planes and securing its use by the Japanese, the battleships would come forward, and using aerial spotting engage in a long range gunnery duel. Once
the culminating point was reached, the Battle Force would close in on and destroy the Americans..."<
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What if the Japanese had not attacke Pearl Harbor?
