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Thread: US, Iran nuclear deal spurs bipartisan concern in Congress

  1. #381
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by austrianecon
    It's actually not. Opening a partnership with Iran either via Russia or ourselves is much much more preferable.
    No it's not. Not least the idea of going through Russia is ridiculous - they just won back Ukraine, they've restabilized their position over their near abroad in central asia, and we're not exactly giving East Europe the warm fuzzy. The last thing we need to do is give them a greater measure of influence over the success or failure of U.S. foreign policy.

    Iran needs nuclear power, nuclear medicine and such. It was the plan laid out by the Shah starting in the 1970s. The goal was to build 22 Nuclear power plants by 2000. Iran's civilian power projects were halted until 1980s. Back in 1980s German intel was claiming Iran would have a nuke in 2 years, that never panned out. Iran was getting enriched material for years for scientific research and to help fuel some of the plants finished. IAEA were given full access in 1992. They found nothing.
    in 1992. Oh. Good. Nothing has happened in 21 years, I'm sure, and I'm equally positive that the IAEA were given full access.

    Does Iran want nuclear energy? You betcha - she desperately needs a solution to her energy vulnerabilities.

    Does she also want nuclear weaponry? You betcha - the regime see's that (correctly) as their guarantee that they will never suffer the fate of Mossadegh, and as the way in which they can re-establish old patterns of influence and control in the region.

    But there's a problem in the neat oh-we-can-just-let-them-build-nukes-and-trust-them-for-it. Well, a couple of problems. First and foremost is that the next thing that happens is that Saudi Arabia starts a nuke program to counterbalance. I wouldn't put it past Turkey to be not terribly far behind in that event - though Egypt is less likely.

    Iran made a huge gesture in 2003 to the US. That anybody in their right mind would have taken and Bush ignored it. Called the "Grand Bargain". Iran was offering the kitchen sink. Everything for stopping support of Hamas, pushing Hezbollah into a political org and accepting the "Two State" solution which all of the US's Middle Eastern allies held and granting 100% access. All Iran wanted was civilian tech and an formal relationship. When that was nixed Iran had only one option after Iraq. That was to try and get their hands on a nuke and was only confirmed as the right answer after North Korea tested and flaunted that premise.
    Precisely. We could bicker about the particulars of the Grand Bargain (I tend to suspect it was a very self-serving, short-term alignment to utilize the US to accomplish their own goals in the region, not least of which was the removal of the Taliban and Saddam regimes - basically what you accuse Israel of doing. Another interesting point; you don't bring up the Iranian help with Iraq, just the Israeli effort.), but whatever it was, this is where the Iranian regime is now. They are not going to give up weaponization because that guarantees regime survival - and only if regime survival is threatened will they begin to make offers (as they have).

    And when they do, those offers will be made by the guy who pretty much wrote the Iranian strategy for utilizing negotiations as a delaying tactic against the West. Who, astonishingly enough, is now President, and is making that offer.

    As for the Bush Administration, I've been given to understand that the belief was at the time that Khamenei wasn't supportive of it; which is why they discredited it. but I wasn't there at the time and couldn't provide any supporting evidence for it.

    Now, I don't know what Obama and Kerry are playing at. But I wouldn't be surprised if it's close to the Grand Bargain proposed in 2003.
    That doesn't appear to be what it looks like. Kerry is out there saying the deal doesn't give Iran the right to enrich, and Iran is saying that it does. Looks like Rouhani is a smart little bastard, and realized that what we had was an administration in trouble, with a desperate need for anything it could wave around as a victory. So Hooray. It looks like we shall have Peace In Our Time.

  2. #382
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    No it's not. Not least the idea of going through Russia is ridiculous - they just won back Ukraine, they've restabilized their position over their near abroad in central asia, and we're not exactly giving East Europe the warm fuzzy. The last thing we need to do is give them a greater measure of influence over the success or failure of U.S. foreign policy.



    in 1992. Oh. Good. Nothing has happened in 21 years, I'm sure, and I'm equally positive that the IAEA were given full access.

    Does Iran want nuclear energy? You betcha - she desperately needs a solution to her energy vulnerabilities.

    Does she also want nuclear weaponry? You betcha - the regime see's that (correctly) as their guarantee that they will never suffer the fate of Mossadegh, and as the way in which they can re-establish old patterns of influence and control in the region.

    But there's a problem in the neat oh-we-can-just-let-them-build-nukes-and-trust-them-for-it. Well, a couple of problems. First and foremost is that the next thing that happens is that Saudi Arabia starts a nuke program to counterbalance. I wouldn't put it past Turkey to be not terribly far behind in that event - though Egypt is less likely.



    Precisely. We could bicker about the particulars of the Grand Bargain (I tend to suspect it was a very self-serving, short-term alignment to utilize the US to accomplish their own goals in the region, not least of which was the removal of the Taliban and Saddam regimes - basically what you accuse Israel of doing. Another interesting point; you don't bring up the Iranian help with Iraq, just the Israeli effort.), but whatever it was, this is where the Iranian regime is now. They are not going to give up weaponization because that guarantees regime survival - and only if regime survival is threatened will they begin to make offers (as they have).

    And when they do, those offers will be made by the guy who pretty much wrote the Iranian strategy for utilizing negotiations as a delaying tactic against the West. Who, astonishingly enough, is now President, and is making that offer.

    As for the Bush Administration, I've been given to understand that the belief was at the time that Khamenei wasn't supportive of it; which is why they discredited it. but I wasn't there at the time and couldn't provide any supporting evidence for it.



    That doesn't appear to be what it looks like. Kerry is out there saying the deal doesn't give Iran the right to enrich, and Iran is saying that it does. Looks like Rouhani is a smart little bastard, and realized that what we had was an administration in trouble, with a desperate need for anything it could wave around as a victory. So Hooray. It looks like we shall have Peace In Our Time.
    why is isreal afraid? they are the ones with Nuclear missiles.
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    why is isreal afraid? they are the ones with Nuclear missiles.
    Nuclear Missiles aren't fungible. Nor does Israel wish to successfully launch a second strike.

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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Nuclear Missiles aren't fungible. Nor does Israel wish to successfully launch a second strike.
    and you believe iran would like to use a second strike?

    and here is a question no one seems to bother asking: how can Iran destroy Israel without destroying Jerusalem in the process?
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    and you believe iran would like to use a second strike?

    and here is a question no one seems to bother asking: how can Iran destroy Israel without destroying Jerusalem in the process?
    Iran believes that the 13th imam will save them.
    Islam is an antiquated religion and needs to either modernize with the times or be completely eradicated.
    There are two types of Muslims, terrorists, and their enablers. They need to fix that if they want to be part of civilized society.

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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    and you believe iran would like to use a second strike?
    Iran can absorb and still survive a very limited strike. Israel cannot. Geography gets its' revenge.

    But the immediate problem with a nuclear-armed Iran isn't immediate deployment and usage - although that is a far more realistic threat than with the atheist Soviets, who didn't think that starting a regional war would bring back a messiah figure and that God would protect them from destruction. It is with A) the fact that it will kick off an arms race and B) It will give Iran a nuclear umbrella underneath which she can become far more aggressive in pursuing her regional goals.

    and here is a question no one seems to bother asking: how can Iran destroy Israel without destroying Jerusalem in the process?
    Didn't you know? A) The Iranian theocracy claims the right to modify Islam to fit its needs (up to and including the Pillars) and B) if Allah truly loves Jerusalem, He will protect it. Inshallah.

  7. #387
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyhunter View Post
    Iran believes that the 13th imam will save them.
    how can any country claim to follow the faith of Islam and say that they would be willing to destroy Jerusalem if it destroys isreal.

    Jerusalem is the holy city of holy city's: Judaism, Christianity and Islam all have a sacred building or connection with the city. to destroy Jerusalem would enrage every devout christian, Jewish, and Muslim citizen of every country.
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    Iran can absorb and still survive a very limited strike. Israel cannot. Geography gets its' revenge.

    But the immediate problem with a nuclear-armed Iran isn't immediate deployment and usage - although that is a far more realistic threat than with the atheist Soviets, who didn't think that starting a regional war would bring back a messiah figure and that God would protect them from destruction. It is with A) the fact that it will kick off an arms race and B) It will give Iran a nuclear umbrella underneath which she can become far more aggressive in pursuing her regional goals.



    Didn't you know? A) The Iranian theocracy claims the right to modify Islam to fit its needs (up to and including the Pillars) and B) if Allah truly loves Jerusalem, He will protect it. Inshallah.
    Iran can't be that crazy to destroy the Dome of the rock? the place on the temple mount where according to the Islamic faith the prophet Mohammad ascended to heaven? The third Holiest site in Islam after the cities of Mecca and Medina? Iran can't honestly have enough people fanatical enough to blow up one of their holy cities?
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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    Iran can't be that crazy to destroy the Dome of the rock?
    We have a strong tendency in the West to project our own sets of assumptions onto others. Others are very rarely crazy, and very often working with a different set of goals and assumptions.

    the place on the temple mount where according to the Islamic faith the prophet Mohammad ascended to heaven? The third Holiest site in Islam after the cities of Mecca and Medina? Iran can't honestly have enough people fanatical enough to blow up one of their holy cities?
    This would be the Mecca and Medina that Khomeini removed from their order of importance? If the Iranian regime claims the ability to alter even the Hajj, what makes you think they will be halted in any decision they have made by the Dome of the Rock?

    Besides. If Allah wants to protect portions of Jerusalem, then He will. You gotta remember the extreme presumption of predestination that we are dealing with here.

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    Re: BREAKING NEWS: Iran, 6 world powers reach deal on Iranian nuclear program

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    how can any country claim to follow the faith of Islam and say that they would be willing to destroy Jerusalem if it destroys isreal.

    Jerusalem is the holy city of holy city's: Judaism, Christianity and Islam all have a sacred building or connection with the city. to destroy Jerusalem would enrage every devout christian, Jewish, and Muslim citizen of every country.
    I am confused - how, exactly, is this a response to the fact that Iranian leadership apparently believes that a messianic figure is going to arise out of a well and lead them to first regional and then global dominance, but requires conflagration in order to do so?

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