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Thread: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    There just isn't enough material in that reactor to badly contaminate a country of that size. Math.
    Ok, run through the numbers you are using...

    Did you consider the nuclear waste that was stored on the site; that there was tons of plutonium in the facility?

    That the ld50 rate for plutonium is 5*10^-6g / kg...

    Let's see some of your math here...

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Ridiculous.

    How exactly would this horrible apocalypse transpire ?

    How exactly would a Earyhquake threaten all of Japan or even the US for that matter ?

    This "scientist" is a kook.

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    There just isn't enough material in that reactor to badly contaminate a country of that size. Math.
    I always understood the risk as being bioaccumulation in our oceanic food sources. The higher order species like tuna are already testing positive for higher amounts of radioactive material. It's kind of ironic that a country such as Japan who refuses to moderate its over-fishing of the ocean is now being faced with having to consume radioactive food.

    Besides, it is too early to just say "math" anyway. Humans understand natural systems better than they used to but there is still a lot to be desired, and we don't know how events will chain react. The projected time for the most nuclear fallout to reach the west coast, if it happens, will be in spring 2014. I will be keeping my eye out on the independent research sources, since I don't trust government or green organizations anymore to be honest.

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Not at all equivalent.
    I almost missed this gem of misinformation.


    Yes.[/quote]

    It was analogous however; but mostly it was funny, at least to me.


    The radioactivity is a complete non-issue in North America. Because seriously, math. The sheer volume of water. Even millions of gallons of contaminated water diluted into that volume become less than measurable.
    On the scale of issues in north America, up to this point, this issue would be at a 2 or 3 out of 10 in severity... But if the absolute worst happens; the west coast may need to take preventative measure.
    In Japan however; this issue should be a 8-10 out of 10.

    Bananas are radioactive too. Significantly more so than the "safe" levels that Japan sets for fish.
    That's where the misinformation starts. This is a false equivalence; radioactive potassium can still be processed by the body, and cycles through your body fairly quickly.

    Also; we are exposed to alot of radiation in a given day, that doesn't go away, the extra radiation exposure is in addition to that normal radiation.

    And you're using the word "toxic" wrong.
    Plutonium debris along with all the rest of the facility when it blew up went into the atmosphere. All it takes is 5 micrograms / kg o body weight to kill 50% of people within 40 days.

    A long half-life means something is less dangerous, not more dangerous.
    Thank you; yes, but uranium for example has a half life in the millions of years.

    Radioactive iodine is half-gone in 8 days.

    Now; you also seem to be misinformed on the variables involved;

    First; you gotta look at the concentration of radiation, which when you look at pure numbers the banana looks worse than the fish.

    Next, you gotta consider the type of radiation; whether it's alpha, beta or gamma radiation. They each have different impacts.

    Also, there is the difference between exposure and ingestion; if you get a hot particle on your arm it will wash off before any real impact. However, if you inhale that hot particle and it lodges in your lung; or is swallowed will each have different impacts.

    Then there's the nature of the radioactive material; is it a heavy metal that is will not be easily processed by the body and will work it's way through your bones, blood, brain, or kidneys;
    or is it like the potassium in the banana that gets quickly processed and maintained at balanced levels within your body?

    Then there is the matter of bioaccumulation; radioactive debris gets in the cow; plus what it eats from what's landed on the same field... Tainting food.



    All these factors vary and have an impact that is not so simple to determine as the simple numbers (which are based on EXPOSURE only)

    A magnitude 7 earthquake is not going to cause the problems this article describes.
    Well, there's been a new set of leaks; including photos that show steam boiling through the ocean water (not ocean water boiling as was reported in some places), which according to at least one expert means that there is now fusion going on outside the confinement in the reactor.

    http://rt.com/op-edge/fukushima-radi...eat-level-288/

    No matter how you slice it; Fukushima is a big deal for the entire northern hemisphere. Until the site itself is completely capped and stopped, but still with one shot, Fukushima will cause more overall damage then all co2 ever released by man.

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    I almost missed this gem of misinformation.


    Yes.

    It was analogous however; but mostly it was funny, at least to me.




    On the scale of issues in north America, up to this point, this issue would be at a 2 or 3 out of 10 in severity... But if the absolute worst happens; the west coast may need to take preventative measure.
    In Japan however; this issue should be a 8-10 out of 10.



    That's where the misinformation starts. This is a false equivalence; radioactive potassium can still be processed by the body, and cycles through your body fairly quickly.

    Also; we are exposed to alot of radiation in a given day, that doesn't go away, the extra radiation exposure is in addition to that normal radiation.



    Plutonium debris along with all the rest of the facility when it blew up went into the atmosphere. All it takes is 5 micrograms / kg o body weight to kill 50% of people within 40 days.



    Thank you; yes, but uranium for example has a half life in the millions of years.

    Radioactive iodine is half-gone in 8 days.

    Now; you also seem to be misinformed on the variables involved;

    First; you gotta look at the concentration of radiation, which when you look at pure numbers the banana looks worse than the fish.

    Next, you gotta consider the type of radiation; whether it's alpha, beta or gamma radiation. They each have different impacts.

    Also, there is the difference between exposure and ingestion; if you get a hot particle on your arm it will wash off before any real impact. However, if you inhale that hot particle and it lodges in your lung; or is swallowed will each have different impacts.

    Then there's the nature of the radioactive material; is it a heavy metal that is will not be easily processed by the body and will work it's way through your bones, blood, brain, or kidneys;
    or is it like the potassium in the banana that gets quickly processed and maintained at balanced levels within your body?

    Then there is the matter of bioaccumulation; radioactive debris gets in the cow; plus what it eats from what's landed on the same field... Tainting food.



    All these factors vary and have an impact that is not so simple to determine as the simple numbers (which are based on EXPOSURE only)



    Well, there's been a new set of leaks; including photos that show steam boiling through the ocean water (not ocean water boiling as was reported in some places), which according to at least one expert means that there is now fusion going on outside the confinement in the reactor.

    Fukushima open air fission? Radiation surge can?t be blamed just on random leaks ? RT Op-Edge

    No matter how you slice it; Fukushima is a big deal for the entire northern hemisphere. Until the site itself is completely capped and stopped, but still with one shot, Fukushima will cause more overall damage then all co2 ever released by man.
    NO, there is NOT "FUSION" happening outside of the Fukishima conatainment structure.

    Fukishima was NEVER a FUSION reactor and the only existing FUSION reactor close to providing a positive theoretical power output is the ITER reactor in France.

    The way we have historically produced a FUSION reaction was to use a FISSILE trigger to fuse the atomic nuclei of two Hydrogen isotopes, Deuterium ( Hydrogen-2) and Tritium ( Hydrogen-3) into Helium-4.

    It takes the energy and more specifically the HEAT of a FISSILE trigger ( an ATOM bomb Comparable to the weapon dropped on Hiroshima ) to initiate that fusion reaction.

    As an educated Fan of both Nuclear FISSION AND FUSION ( Weapons and power applications ) I have to say there has been a serious amount of misinformation reported concerning the Fukishima disaster and the clean up. I've even read read on whako eco websites that there was the chance of a atomic explosion comparable to Hiroshima during clean up.

    NONSENSE. FIRST, the Nuclear fuel they use for power plants isn't weapon grade fissile material. Not even close. It's enriched up to 4-6% where weaponized material is enriched in excess of 90%. Now some power plants DO create highly enriched plutonium as a % of it's waste but that Plutonium would have to be processed and isolated in order to create the "Pit" OF A fissile Atomic weapon.

    Second, in order to produce that type of explosion a highly weaponized form of Uranium or Plutonium has to be compressed until it reaches it's critical mass. That's difficult to accomplish even by design. Nuclear weapons are very high tech pieces of equipment.

    I read that there was a chance the fuel rod would ignite when exposed to air during clean up. Also nonsense. Fukishima used a "MOX fuel" or Metal Oxide fuel clad in ZIRCONIUM that according to another whack eco website, "Explodes on contact " with air.

    Zirconium powder can detonate when it comes into contact with air but not solid zirconium, it's bought and sold as a solid metal like steel or aluminum.

    Melted core material is usually contained if not by the Containment vessel then by redundant materials that are specifically used to dilute the core material. The Chernobyl core melted into a channel created for a core run off and melted into the basement and by then had been diluted, cooled and isolated.

    Reactors have been decommissioned before. Three Mile Island clean up took 14 years.

    There's no doubt Fukishima was a disaster with damage to the surrounding area and years of decommission and clean up to follow. But to classify it as a Nation Killer or to characterize a possible outcome that would adversely affect the entire Wet coast of the United State is a HUGE exaggeration.

    It's as bad as saying "FUSION" is currently happening outside the containment vessel when that's simply impossible.
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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Typo + autocorrect made that mistake... Which appeared just once, and was my typo... So I'll delete that part and respond to the rest, since I obviously agree and am aware of the difference.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    NO, there is NOT "FUSION" happening outside of the Fukishima conatainment structure.
    That was speculated as the best explanation as to how the steam appears as though the ocean next to the facility is / was boiling... That the attempts to keep the reacting material cool has failed and is now fissioning into the ground beneath the facility.

    As an educated Fan of both Nuclear FISSION AND FUSION ( Weapons and power applications ) I have to say there has been a serious amount of misinformation reported concerning the Fukishima disaster and the clean up. I've even read read on whako eco websites that there was the chance of a atomic explosion comparable to Hiroshima during clean up.
    I get that; and you clearly are more well versed in the material than I am...

    NONSENSE. FIRST, the Nuclear fuel they use for power plants isn't weapon grade fissile material. Not even close. It's enriched up to 4-6% where weaponized material is enriched in excess of 90%. Now some power plants DO create highly enriched plutonium as a % of it's waste but that Plutonium would have to be processed and isolated in order to create the "Pit" OF A fissile Atomic weapon.
    Whether its possible or not, I don't know (tend to doubt that type of explosion would be possible regardless), but the logic was if the core melts down, just like you melt any other metal where the heavier metal concentrates at the bottom, this melted down core could concentrate to higher levels.... Again, that's the logic explained whether that's possible I don't know.

    Second, in order to produce that type of explosion a highly weaponized form of Uranium or Plutonium has to be compressed until it reaches it's critical mass. That's difficult to accomplish even by design. Nuclear weapons are very high tech pieces of equipment.

    I read that there was a chance the fuel rod would ignite when exposed to air during clean up. Also nonsense. Fukishima used a "MOX fuel" or Metal Oxide fuel clad in ZIRCONIUM that according to another whack eco website, "Explodes on contact " with air.

    Zirconium powder can detonate when it comes into contact with air but not solid zirconium, it's bought and sold as a solid metal like steel or aluminum.

    Melted core material is usually contained if not by the Containment vessel then by redundant materials that are specifically used to dilute the core material. The Chernobyl core melted into a channel created for a core run off and melted into the basement and by then had been diluted, cooled and isolated.

    Reactors have been decommissioned before. Three Mile Island clean up took 14 years.

    There's no doubt Fukishima was a disaster with damage to the surrounding area and years of decommission and clean up to follow. But to classify it as a Nation Killer or to characterize a possible outcome that would adversely affect the entire Wet coast of the United State is a HUGE exaggeration.

    It's as bad as saying "FUSION" is currently happening outside the containment vessel when that's simply impossible.
    So you are aware also that there's now over a million deaths that can be attributed to Chernobyl now??

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    There just isn't enough material in that reactor to badly contaminate a country of that size. Math.
    That's not gonna be simple math, Deuce. We're not talking junior high algebra here.

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Quote Originally Posted by BmanMcfly View Post
    Typo + autocorrect made that mistake... Which appeared just once, and was
    my typo... So I'll delete that part and respond to the rest, since I obviously agree and am aware of the difference.



    That was speculated as the best explanation as to how the steam appears as though the ocean next to the facility is / was boiling... That the attempts to keep the reacting material cool has failed and is now fissioning into the ground beneath the facility.


    I get that; and you clearly are more well versed in the material than I am...



    Whether its possible or not, I don't know (tend to doubt that type of explosion would be possible regardless), but the logic was if the core melts down, just like you melt any other metal where the heavier metal concentrates at the bottom, this melted down core could concentrate to higher levels.... Again, that's the logic explained whether that's possible I don't know.



    So you are aware also that there's now over a million deaths that can be attributed to Chernobyl now??
    Chernobyl was far worse than Fukishima, it was a different type of reactor and when it exploded it generated a massive cloud of radioactive material.

    The numbers of deaths attributed really depend on who you ask and I tend to not go to eco extreme websites to find my data unless I need a laugh.

    Also, I have yet to read anywhere that the efforts to cool the remaining fuel rods at Fukishima have "failed". That implies theyv'e given up all hope and left the site to burn.

    I guarantee THATS not happening.

    And melted runaway core would have to be coming from the damaged reactors. Reactors that had redundant containment systems built in that are designed to dilute the core material as it makes its way through the containment layers.

    Fissile material thats used in Nuclear reactors doesn't melt through the earth as described in the China Syndrome.

    Again, the fuel used for Reactors is enriched to around 3-5%. Thats up from the natural enrichment of uranium ore of .72 %. It heats up, spreads out and starts to cool as did the core material at Chernobyl.

    MOX fuel is a compound of very small amounts of plutonium 239 and Depleted Uranium. Its NOT pure weapons grade plutonium or even the type of core material used at Chernobyl.

    Molten core material made it of the reactor containment vesel ? So ? It will cool, and they will contain and remove it.

    Its not the first time thats happened.

    Two advantages of MOX fuel. It uses left over plutonium from decomishioned Nuclear weapons, so that plutonium is taken out of the total inventory all together and its nearly impossible and totally impractical to remove any left over plutonium out of spent MOX fuel.

    The danger that comes from a Nuclear melt down are radiation from the debris cloud left over after an explosion and radiation that might find its way into the water supply.

    The Fukishima explosions were the result of the reaction of the Zirconium cladding coming in contact with steam which caused oxidation of the clad material which released Hydrogen.

    Chernobyl's Explosion happened during a test. The controllers were trying to compensate for a 75 second lag on emergency generator startup by using the rotational momentum of the Turbines to run emergency power until the back up generators started.

    They lowered the power output which caused a mass production of Xenon-135. This is known as " Reactor Poisoning" as Xenon-135 absorbs starts to absorb nuetrons in proportion to the rate of fission.

    The operators panicked, because posioning a reactor shuts it down for several days if not weeks, and could probably get a Russian operator a train ticket to Siberia. They lowered the control rods too far, which caused a further loss of power, they panicked again and removed the rods Completely.

    Extra pumps were brought on line but their prior actions had caused a unstable core condition. Even though a SCRAM was attempted, power output spiked and caused an explotion.

    Chernobyl was a graphite moderator reactor, Fukishima is not. The burning exposed Graphite caused continuous highly radioactive debris to spread out over thousands of miles.
    Fukishima was a huge disaster, but its not comparable to Chernobyl.

    Hiroshima and Nagasaki created MASSIVE clouds of radioactive particles and killed hundreds of thousands of people. But today those Cities thrive.

    I GET Fukishima was a total disaster, and who ever decided to build it on a coast line that was susceptable to Tsunamis should be hung up by their toes, but its no Nation Killer. Nor does it have the potential to take out Japan or all of the West Coast.

    Those reactors were put into a SCRAM condition almost an hour before the Tsunami hit, and MOX fuel is mostly depleted uranium.

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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Below is a few pics of the dreaded "Elephants Foot". That's what's left of the ACTUAL #4 Reactor' Core at Cherrnobyl after it breached the containment vessel and made it into a basement where it cooled. Notice the Russian technician.


    chernobyl-elephants-foot.jpg
    UKRAINE-CHERNOBYL_001.jpg
    elephant foot.jpg

    Chernobyl was a Graphite Moderated light water tube reactor that used Uranium-235 enriched to about 2 to 3 %.
    Last edited by Fenton; 11-13-13 at 12:32 PM.
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    Re: Big quake near Fukushima would ‘decimate Japan, lead to US West Coast evacuation

    Here are a couple of YouTube films documenting the clean up and the accident in general. In the film it states that the men had no idea of what they were getting into although interviews with personnel who were on the scene contradict that. Firefighters new that this was a suicide mission but felt it was their duty to continue on.

    Notice the "Bio-Robots" actually shoveling burning graphite moderator off of the roof of what was left of the reactor. They were receiving millions of Rotogens per hour and were the first of the rescue and clean up crew to die.

    The Cameraman in the first video climbed to the roof to film inside the exposed reactor. That decision cost him his life.



    Last edited by Fenton; 11-13-13 at 12:51 PM.
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