The whole modern world has divided itself into Conservatives and Progressives. The business of Progressives is to go on making mistakes. The business of Conservatives is to prevent mistakes from being corrected.
Odds are pretty good the place will revert to it's own feudal ways once we stop propping up this fictional Afgan National Forces -in itself an oxymoron,
as you rightly point out there really isn't any latent nationalism there.
Iraq DOES have a nationalist character - and our emphasis on "nationbuilding" was a correct effort; albeit a bad mistake to invade.
If we hadn't dissolved the Iraqi Army, and been so busy tearing out the Iraqi gov't -maybe a counterinsurgency strategy might have worked. Maybe...
Thing is. I kinna think only a dictator lke Saddam couild hold that place togther, as it's coming apart at the seams now, but it's a valid debate point
Oṃ maṇi padme hūṃ