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Thread: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176:468]

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    The most interesting thing to me about the last two weeks is that it really all may be pointless, but not for the reasons everyone thinks.

    Consider this: At the witching hour before Healthcare.gov went live the Republicans in Congress had narrowed their demands down to two: 1) Delay the individual Mandate for a year and 2) Eliminate the congressional subsidy that no other American could qualify for.

    Democrats refused to budge on their end and the shutdown happened.

    Then came October 1st and the exchanges opened. These exchanges are there to connect people with health insurers so that they can sign up for insurance and avoid the tax penalty they will begin incurring on January 1st.

    .. except, very few people have actually successfully signed up for insurance. 51,000 by one leaked count, and the general consensus is that Healthcare.gov is a disaster.

    This is important because with Healthcare.gov in such a sorry state of dysfunction the government would be hard pressed to prosecute anyone who didn't obtain health insurance by the March deadline -- and if they can't sort out the Healthcare.gov technical issues in the next month the prognosis keeps getting worse -- it could end up that the the Federal Government will need to POSTPONE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE until they get their act in gear because it will be unenforceable given the state of the signup system.

    So in the long run the Democrats will have refused to grant the House their request of postponing the mandate a year only to have to postpone the mandate a year.

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The most interesting thing to me about the last two weeks is that it really all may be pointless, but not for the reasons everyone thinks.

    Consider this: At the witching hour before Healthcare.gov went live the Republicans in Congress had narrowed their demands down to two: 1) Delay the individual Mandate for a year and 2) Eliminate the congressional subsidy that no other American could qualify for.

    Democrats refused to budge on their end and the shutdown happened.

    Then came October 1st and the exchanges opened. These exchanges are there to connect people with health insurers so that they can sign up for insurance and avoid the tax penalty they will begin incurring on January 1st.

    .. except, very few people have actually successfully signed up for insurance. 51,000 by one leaked count, and the general consensus is that Healthcare.gov is a disaster.

    This is important because with Healthcare.gov in such a sorry state of dysfunction the government would be hard pressed to prosecute anyone who didn't obtain health insurance by the March deadline -- and if they can't sort out the Healthcare.gov technical issues in the next month the prognosis keeps getting worse -- it could end up that the the Federal Government will need to POSTPONE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE until they get their act in gear because it will be unenforceable given the state of the signup system.

    So in the long run the Democrats will have refused to grant the House their request of postponing the mandate a year only to have to postpone the mandate a year.
    Wishful thinking. They should have the glitches worked out fairly quickly. The IT sector has matured an incredible amount in the last two decades so this shouldn't be a game ending problem.

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176:468]

    Quote Originally Posted by calamity View Post
    Ah. Another anti-RINO Puritan. I thank you, BTW. Without your ilk, the GOP would never have died the slow beautiful agonizing death we are all witnessing today.

    Cheers.
    So tell me, with your proclaimed death of the GOP who or what takes their place? You believe that the Democrat results are sustainable? You believe we can redistribute wealth in this country to provide you with all that you want? I don't mean to be disrespectful but how old are you

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post

    .. except, very few people have actually successfully signed up for insurance. 51,000 by one leaked count, and the general consensus is that Healthcare.gov is a disaster.
    What I find odd is that all the anti ACA types keep trumpeting how few people have signed up. From what it sounds like, the amount of interest has been massive. The number of sign ups seems to be not announced anywhere except for 'leaks' which are pretty sketchy.

    But why would anyone expect sign ups to be really big? No one needs to get this before Jan 1, and health insurance is quite complicated - people will be weighing their options and reading and figuring what the best thing to do is for quite a while before committing to a purchase, especially when they dont have a deadline for months.

    I can guarantee when the actual numbers turn out to be good, the shouty Cons will pretend they never used the argument that no one was signing up. It will magically disappear from their brains.

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    Wishful thinking. They should have the glitches worked out fairly quickly. The IT sector has matured an incredible amount in the last two decades so this shouldn't be a game ending problem.

    I am in the IT sector -- in fact I am in the big data portal side of IT that builds Healthcare.gov style sites -- and I have worked on numerous bid data projects like this in the last 15 years. This roll out is easily the worst I have ever seen. The problem is compounded by the nature of the service provided. In a private industry you eventually get a respite with a hard crash like this when you find your system can't handle traffic because. In that environment the traffic eventually subsides (as you lose business) and you hit a "happy" medium where the load of the server isn't too high to kill it and you can manage improvements and hope the customers trickle back.

    On the government side it is very different because there is no trickle off of customers. The customer is required by law to use this service so every day where there is no service the hits snowball the traffic to the next day and the next and the next. So not only do they need more hardware, they need even more hardware than would have been needed at the original launch because the customers aren't going away, they are just all being put on hold until some time in the future when you have a system big enough to attend to them all.

    This is no small task even if it is just a not-enough-hardware issue.

    But I'd guess it is more than just that based on how hard it has crashed. There are likely bugs in the coding, poorly configured network routing and any number of other gremlins born of poor planning that they still need to address. If that is the case you are looking at the shortest path being a tear down of one site (I assume they at least have coop and dr in place) and rebuild it then fail over to the fixed site... but that is a 6 month project at minimum... more if you want to ensure you aren't duplicating the mistakes of the past. And you still have all the state exchanges to worry about.

    But anything is possible, I guess. Major private industries are moving away from the home grown cloud to IAAS for just this reason. All the gremlins that come from a new build go away when you contract a company that rolls perfectly clean versions of this kind of infrastructure 24/7/365.

    Look at it this way: It took them two years to build this. The fix is likely not going to be two weeks.

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    The most interesting thing to me about the last two weeks is that it really all may be pointless, but not for the reasons everyone thinks.

    Consider this: At the witching hour before Healthcare.gov went live the Republicans in Congress had narrowed their demands down to two: 1) Delay the individual Mandate for a year and 2) Eliminate the congressional subsidy that no other American could qualify for.

    Democrats refused to budge on their end and the shutdown happened.

    Then came October 1st and the exchanges opened. These exchanges are there to connect people with health insurers so that they can sign up for insurance and avoid the tax penalty they will begin incurring on January 1st.

    .. except, very few people have actually successfully signed up for insurance. 51,000 by one leaked count, and the general consensus is that Healthcare.gov is a disaster.

    This is important because with Healthcare.gov in such a sorry state of dysfunction the government would be hard pressed to prosecute anyone who didn't obtain health insurance by the March deadline -- and if they can't sort out the Healthcare.gov technical issues in the next month the prognosis keeps getting worse -- it could end up that the the Federal Government will need to POSTPONE THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE until they get their act in gear because it will be unenforceable given the state of the signup system.

    So in the long run the Democrats will have refused to grant the House their request of postponing the mandate a year only to have to postpone the mandate a year.
    The most interesting thing is what would have happened had the Tea Party gone alone with the deal Boehner and Reid struck in July (a clean CR at 983 Billion).

    Fresh from a beating on Syria, the media would have spent the last two weeks covering the disastrous ACA rollout. Republicans could have held hearings highlighting the problem followed by a bill delaying the mandate for a year. Obama and the Democrats would have taken a huge hit fighting such a "reasonable" proposal.

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    What I find odd is that all the anti ACA types keep trumpeting how few people have signed up. From what it sounds like, the amount of interest has been massive. The number of sign ups seems to be not announced anywhere except for 'leaks' which are pretty sketchy.

    But why would anyone expect sign ups to be really big? No one needs to get this before Jan 1, and health insurance is quite complicated - people will be weighing their options and reading and figuring what the best thing to do is for quite a while before committing to a purchase, especially when they dont have a deadline for months.

    I can guarantee when the actual numbers turn out to be good, the shouty Cons will pretend they never used the argument that no one was signing up. It will magically disappear from their brains.

    The Fed is trumpeting page hits which says nothing about unique customer interactions.

    50,000 people try 20 times to reload a page and boom, a million page hits.

    How many accounts created? How many insurance plans purchased? Those are the metrics that would indicate a successful roll out and those are the numbers the administration won't divulge.

    In general when you build a portal like this that is meant to channel customers into a specific action you get a thumbnail sketch of how successful the site is by the number of page hits per completed task. So if, say, you have 7 pages to navigate before a customer has completed the task then the perfect system would have a ratio of customer page hits to tasks completed of 7-1. If your stats show that every customer that completed the task had 20 page hits then you know there is likely something wrong along the path.

    So far that ratio of known completed healthcare.gov applications to page hits strongly indicates that the system sits on the broke meter somewhere between "boned" and "t!ts up".

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    Re: Most would blame Republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    The T.E.A. Party representatives are doing what the people that elected them told them to do. The American people are entitled to the same exemptions Obama has given his supporters and base. Blaming the Republicans is nothing more than political theater perpetuated by a willing press. The reality is quite different. Congress passed the law and should be forced onto the law.
    Clearly, you don't grasp the concept of what the act does. It allows you to choose. If you like your current plan, you can keep it. That is what the Congressmen and the President are doing: Keeping the plans they have.

    As for "doing what the people that elected them told them to do," obviously, a lot of those people changed their minds between November 2010 and November 2012, because the President who brought them Obamacare was easily re-elected.

    Maybe the Tea Partiers should stop listening to only their own constituents, and start listening to ALL of America.

    Actually, Washington Needs To Stop Listening To America

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    Re: Most would blame Republicans

    Quote Originally Posted by Comunitee View Post
    Clearly, you don't grasp the concept of what the act does. It allows you to choose. If you like your current plan, you can keep it. That is what the Congressmen and the President are doing: Keeping the plans they have.
    Yeah, right after they've pissed all over your existing plan you get to keep it if you wish. Right after they've created conditions making 29 hours a week with no health insurance the new full time, you can keep your plan (well, maybe not, huh?). Right after they've driven cost through the roof... and on and on.

    Quote Originally Posted by Comunitee View Post
    As for "doing what the people that elected them told them to do," obviously, a lot of those people changed their minds between November 2010 and November 2012, because the President who brought them Obamacare was easily re-elected.
    Yeah, like that was the only reason Obama won re-election. C'mon be serious.

    Quote Originally Posted by Comunitee View Post
    Maybe the Tea Partiers should stop listening to only their own constituents, and start listening to ALL of America.

    Actually, Washington Needs To Stop Listening To America
    NO! Absolutely not. In what universe is it a good thing that representatives stop listening to their constituency? No thanks.

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    Re: CNN Poll: GOP would bear the brunt of shutdown blame [W:176]

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Much of that Federal support was probably state support that you easily don't understand. The support you get from the Federal Govt. is defense which is mandated by the Constitution. Not much else comes from the Federal Govt. that isn't a use tax like excise taxes on gasoline that fund the highways. Amazing how brainwashed supposedly intelligent people are
    http://www.dallasnews.com/news/polit...government.ece


    But you skipped this part.....which I understand why:

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    What is it about personal responsibility and neighbor helping neighbor that you don't understand?
    Those are diametrically opposed, one is "boot-strappy", the other is "socialism". I'm all for neighbor helping neighbor, whether that neighbor is next door, across the street or across the city or across the country.
    Quote Originally Posted by trouble13 View Post
    If you wanna know why Trumpsters are ignoring you its for the same reason you ignored the KKKs complaints about Obama.
    Quote Originally Posted by Moderate Right View Post
    When it comes down to it, all facts are cherry picked.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodhisattva View Post
    He didn't say it didn't make sense. He said it is complete nonsense.

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