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Thread: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    And precipitation. But that's not the point. The point is that a single years worth of data is completely useless for establishing a climate trend.
    Yeah, but so is 30 years. For all we know it's a cycle and is starting to turn back the other way.

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." --HL Mencken

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    Yeah, but so is 30 years. For all we know it's a cycle and is starting to turn back the other way.
    No, what we know is that it's not, since the data and models show otherwise.

    That's what science does: makes predictions based on data and theories that are supported by fact and reason. The anthropogenic causation of global warming is well understood. The extent and rapidity is not.

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by head of joaquin View Post
    No it shows that the models up to now have overestimated the warming trend during a particular period. The article suggests why.

    It doesn't imply at all the "scientists don't know how to predict" future climate. Both the models and the measurements show global warming. If the actuality is not as bad as the predictions, that's good news. But we still have to deal with the problem, and denying it is pure knownothingism.
    No, we don't have to deal with the problem. It would be a waste of resources to deal with a problem that doesn't exist.

    The models have fundamentally failed in their first big test of 20 years of prospective observations after the initial predictions. There is no reason to think they will do any better in the next 20 years since they can't explain why the models failed and have made no significant improvement in the models. I think I know why the models failed; they have the water vapor feedback set way too high, but they steadfastly refuse to admit it. If they'd plugged in a more realistic figure for water vapor feedback the models would have made the correct prediction, but the whole alarmist schtick would have been spoiled since that would mean that climate sensitivity is nowhere near as high as they've been claiming.

    In science if your theory fails to make useful predictions then it is useless and wrong. Back to the drawing board.

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." --HL Mencken

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by head of joaquin View Post
    No, what we know is that it's not, since the data and models show otherwise.

    That's what science does: makes predictions based on data and theories that are supported by fact and reason. The anthropogenic causation of global warming is well understood. The extent and rapidity is not.
    This is a good example of hermeneutical (religious) thinking. The Truth is known with absolute certainty and all is to be interpreted in the light of that Truth.

    But that's not how scientists should think. The theory missed badly in terms of providing predictions. Time to consider other ideas.

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." --HL Mencken

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by rocket88 View Post
    That's not really that far off. If the weatherman says it's going to be 80 and it's only 78.7, that's still a pretty good prediction.

    Not when the warming seen over the last 100 years is only 0.7C. When the error is larger than the observation you can't trust the observation.

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    No, we don't have to deal with the problem. It would be a waste of resources to deal with a problem that doesn't exist.

    The models have fundamentally failed in their first big test of 20 years of prospective observations after the initial predictions. There is no reason to think they will do any better in the next 20 years since they can't explain why the models failed and have made no significant improvement in the models. I think I know why the models failed; they have the water vapor feedback set way too high, but they steadfastly refuse to admit it. If they'd plugged in a more realistic figure for water vapor feedback the models would have made the correct prediction, but the whole alarmist schtick would have been spoiled since that would mean that climate sensitivity is nowhere near as high as they've been claiming.

    In science if your theory fails to make useful predictions then it is useless and wrong. Back to the drawing board.
    Wish it to the cornfield!

    That's what I love about conservatives. Total denial.

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by LowDown View Post
    This is a good example of hermeneutical (religious) thinking. The Truth is known with absolute certainty and all is to be interpreted in the light of that Truth.

    But that's not how scientists should think. The theory missed badly in terms of providing predictions. Time to consider other ideas.
    O Jeez, a lecture on methodological naturalism from a denialist.

    Science proposes theories to explain facts. Ultimately the theories, if validated, allow us to make predictions about stuff we care about. Nothing apodictic about it. Pure empiricism. In that context we have a valid theory about how climate changes and how industrial activity affects that. The models accord with the data, but at least this study shows that the prediction overestimated the warming trend for the period at issue, and proposes reasons why. Scientists will now examine those proposed reasons, test them, and construct better models.

    Does that mean the problem of global warming doesn't exist? Nope. Only Fox News and denialists would misinterpret the study that way.

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by jmotivator View Post
    Not when the warming seen over the last 100 years is only 0.7C. When the error is larger than the observation you can't trust the observation.
    Now you're making stuff up. The study didn't say this at all. Focus, focus.

    You must be channeling some particularly freakish denialist website.

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by head of joaquin View Post
    Now you're making stuff up. The study didn't say this at all. Focus, focus.

    You must be channeling some particularly freakish denialist website.

    I was responding to someone's example. Keep up.
    Last edited by jmotivator; 09-12-13 at 11:38 PM.

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    Re: Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

    Quote Originally Posted by Middleground View Post
    Ya think? Tell me, in your infinite clairvoyant wisdom, what do you think a 2 degree annual difference will mean to our planet?
    Let's see, Which Scientist anywhere is talking about a 2 degree annual difference?
    https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/ho...last-100-years
    To be fair you did include a time parameter with your increase number, which is better than many do,
    but the rise/time you suggested is preposterous.
    Perhaps you mean 2 degrees C over the next 82 years,(the low end of the IPCC range).
    If that is you question, then Toronto will end up with plant zones now seen about 150 miles south.
    Sea levels will rise about 10 inches.
    There is a slight chance we Humans will find an energy path forward that will
    keep 4 out of 5 people from starving.
    Alarm and Panic only helps those asking for money.

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