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Thread: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

  1. #171
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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by iguanaman View Post
    The thing tax cuts can stimulate is spending and so increase demand. So why do they need to be long term?
    Because empirical evidence suggests temporary tax cuts will not stimulate spending on an indebted economy. They will go towards debt reduction.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    Tax revenues increased. That worked. Sequestration's contribution is to a lower extent. As Tech said, a lot of it was Fannie Mae contribution.
    Tax revenues only went up $85B for the year, nice try.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Because empirical evidence suggests temporary tax cuts will not stimulate spending on an indebted economy. They will go towards debt reduction.
    I seriously doubt that.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    Because empirical evidence suggests temporary tax cuts will not stimulate spending on an indebted economy. They will go towards debt reduction.
    Debt reduction means banks getting their money back. Which means banks will loan more money out, which stimulates the economy.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by blaxshep View Post
    I seriously doubt that.
    That is actually based on classical economic doctrine. We can observe the empirical implications using the Bush Tax Rebate programs as an example.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Debt reduction means banks getting their money back. Which means banks will loan more money out, which stimulates the economy.
    No it doesn't. It means a contraction in the money supply, which causes the economy to decline.

    Bad economics on your part!
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    He made similar comments before, and credit markets fell to their lowest levels since 2011.

    If deficit originated Treasury issuance declines, while credit easing policy is held constant, inflation must increase to ensure an increase in interest rates. Now.... It looks like Treasury issuance is surely going to decline, likely by more than 50%. Which means, interest rates must decline in order to ensure $45 billion in new securities is purchased each month.

    Is it clear??? Supply down... Purchases constant... Inflation Constant... Bond price up...

    The economic growth necessary to increase real interest rates is the only way, as long as the relationship above holds, for the nominal interest rate of Treasuries to increase.

    Hopefully this clears things up....
    Things were clear to me all along. This "headline" is meaningless to the economy. You seem to get that everything BUT this "news" has been affecting the economy and yet when I'm telling you flat out that this "surprise huge budget surplus" news had no positive affect at all - because it is not really positive news about the economy, you throw up your hands and plead "no comprende" and keep on waving your pom poms as though this "news" had some meaning aside from giving Obamaphiles a talking point that didn't have something to do with an administration scandal.

    The economy is struggling. QE3 continues. And this isn't "economic news" of any significance at all.

    Now go ahead and obfuscate and wave pom poms some more. Politics as usual.
    You can't reason anyone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into in the first place.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    That is actually based on classical economic doctrine. We can observe the empirical implications using the Bush Tax Rebate programs as an example.
    I am saying I seriously doubt they will take the surplus and use it against the principle on our debt.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    Now go ahead and obfuscate and wave pom poms some more. Politics as usual.
    You reply to financial analysis with low-brow partisan nonsense. I see you cannot refute my comment.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by blaxshep View Post
    I am saying I seriously doubt they will take the surplus and use it against the principle on our debt.
    Who?

    I am talking about the private sector reaction to temporary tax cuts....
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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