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Thread: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

  1. #151
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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    It didn't have any positive impact on the markets at all.
    It is the type of news that, upon its release, should not impact equity markets at all. The stronger economic growth necessary to move markets was priced in months ago. What should be observable is the impact on the Treasury market, which have caused U.S. Government bond prices to increase.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    All except that there's no "paying it down". What it's like is ALWAYS spending more than you take in but celebrating because your overspending isn't quite as bad as the record overspending you've been doing for the last 4 years.
    True...but I'm not going to answer for Republican actions in early 2000 and their idea to "give back" money via tax decreases rather than work on lowering the total national debt. I didn't vote for those guys.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    It is the type of news that, upon its release, should not impact equity markets at all.
    That's correct. It shouldn't because it's not an economic indicator and it's not economic news and it's not anything but fuzzy math and calling money that we are borrowing "a surplus" just because we didn't spend as much borrowed money as we planned to spend (thanks to the sequester!). No, the markets weren't impressed, but the markets aren't partisan hacks, so I wouldn't have expected them to be giddy over propaganda.
    You can't reason anyone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into in the first place.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    That's correct. It shouldn't because it's not an economic indicator and it's not economic news and it's not anything but fuzzy math and calling money that we are borrowing "a surplus" just because we didn't spend as much borrowed money as we planned to spend (thanks to the sequester!). No, the markets weren't impressed, but the markets aren't partisan hacks, so I wouldn't have expected them to be giddy over propaganda.
    How is someone with such a limited understanding of finance arguing so aggressively? You think you would take your lumps and just move on....

    It won't impact equity markets because..... the news is not earnings-centric. Meaning, U.S. publicly listed companies will not, i repeat, will not reap the types of economic benefits your ideology vehemently believe in; lower deficits create income (where as in fact, it is the other way around).

    Look at bond bond prices. They have increased, which of course makes all the sense in the world if you were a bond trader and the supply of deficit orientated treasury issuance was looking to fall in considerable fashion.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post
    True...but I'm not going to answer for Republican actions in early 2000 and their idea to "give back" money via tax decreases rather than work on lowering the total national debt. I didn't vote for those guys.
    Remember the saying "it's the economy, Stupid"? The economy was in a recession and the reduction in taxes was the stimulus that got us through the recession... funny how lefties understand what stimulus is for now that they've got an Obama recession. But all that aside, the bottom line is that the government needs to stop overspending. If you constantly spend more than your revenue, you will end up so hopelessly buried in debt that you go bankrupt and that's a very bad thing to have happen, as we're seeing in Europe.
    You can't reason anyone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into in the first place.

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Honestly at the end of the day this all doesn't matter. The sharknado will hit and we'll all be dead.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    Remember the saying "it's the economy, Stupid"? The economy was in a recession and the reduction in taxes was the stimulus that got us through the recession...
    It was a mild recession. A lowering of interest rates was all that was needed. Massive tax cuts, low interest rates, and deregulation mentality on Wall Street was a recipe for disaster.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Papa bull View Post
    Remember the saying "it's the economy, Stupid"? The economy was in a recession and the reduction in taxes was the stimulus that got us through the recession... funny how lefties understand what stimulus is for now that they've got an Obama recession. But all that aside, the bottom line is that the government needs to stop overspending. If you constantly spend more than your revenue, you will end up so hopelessly buried in debt that you go bankrupt and that's a very bad thing to have happen, as we're seeing in Europe.
    There's nothing wrong with tax relief in the short term. Like payroll tax cuts made that lasted 2 years.

    The Bush tax cuts were passed for 10 years....that's not a stimulus that's long term policy. Not to mention a payroll tax focuses on lower income individuals. The Bush tax cuts are debatable as stimulus because of the increase in the top marginal income tax rates. In a hurting economy it's hard for me to believe that the problem is individuals making over 250,000 in income or individuals with capital gains are the one's that are being squeezed.
    “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone.” John Maynard Keynes

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by iliveonramen View Post

    The Bush tax cuts were passed for 10 years....that's not a stimulus that's long term policy.
    The problem is, tax cuts lose their stimulative characteristics if they are viewed as temporary.


    Not to mention a payroll tax focuses on lower income individuals. The Bush tax cuts are debatable as stimulus because of the increase in the top marginal income tax rates. In a hurting economy it's hard for me to believe that the problem is individuals making over 250,000 in income or individuals with capital gains are the one's that are being squeezed.
    Agreed!
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Surprise! Huge US Budget Surplus Shatters Record

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    How is someone with such a limited understanding of finance arguing so aggressively? You think you would take your lumps and just move on....

    It won't impact equity markets because..... the news is not earnings-centric.
    Bullschitt. It doesn't impact equity markets because it doesn't tell anyone anything about the economy. If unemployment goes down, the equity markets react. If there's a sign that the economy in China is slowing, the equity markets react. If consumer confidence gives the market a sign that the economy is strengthening, the markets react. ANY sign that the economy is strengthening makes the market tick upward. The fact that NOTHING is happening attests to the fact that, as economic news, this "record budget surplus" non-news event is NOT an economic indicator of any sort. It doesn't tell us anything about the economy at all. That's why equity markets weren't affected by this "surprise record budget surplus". It's a big fat zero in terms of information; that's why.

    But you can pretend it's "economic news" if you want. It's your credibility. Piss it away if you want.
    You can't reason anyone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into in the first place.

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