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Thread: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Being in the business world doesn't make you an expert here. Besides, I'm both owner of an LLC and have run more than a few business myself. You mistake your little world as being all knowing of the larger world.
    If you are as you say then you understand how higher taxes, more regulations affect the P&L and thus the return on any investment you made. If not, then you are all talk as are most liberals getting your information out of a textbook and ignoring the financial statements and human behavior. My bet is that so called little world you believe I was involved in is more representative of the real world than yours but we will never know. What we do know is that the results of liberalism are a disaster and you made a mistake in supporting Obama unless you are part of that disaster.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    If you are as you say then you understand how higher taxes, more regulations affect the P&L and thus the return on any investment you made. If not, then you are all talk as are most liberals getting your information out of a textbook and ignoring the financial statements and human behavior. My bet is that so called little world you believe I was involved in is more representative of the real world than yours but we will never know. What we do know is that the results of liberalism are a disaster and you made a mistake in supporting Obama unless you are part of that disaster.
    It's all manageable and minor. Business has gone on, been successful, regardless of any of this. History shows this clearly.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    I'll interpret that as "you're correct, you were not showing any political bias but I don't dare admit it."

    It's basic Stats 101. The math is high school level.

    I'll remind you that you wouldn't take my word about the reliability and demanded proof. So when I show what you asked for, you dismiss it as me showing off? Please. What would your response have been if I hadn't shown the math? Oh, you would have dismissed me for not providing proof. So basically, you were going to dismiss me no matter what.

    I get paid to know this stuff. And now I've put in my notice, so I'm a lame duck and I have time.


    The formula from the link http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf : se(x) = (ax^2 + bx)^.5 from page 196 Add in the factor for consecutive month change as mentioned later for se(x,f) = f*(ax^2 + bx)^.5

    Right there in the link. For the payroll data it might not be on that exact page, though. But in any case 90% confidence is 1.645 standard errors and 95% confidence is 1.96 standard errors. It's been a very long time since I've done the math on how to actually derive those.

    And I'm trying to explain it...but you keep dismissing my explanations as ego. I've been doing this professionally for many years...I do know what I'm talking about. That's not ego, that's fact.
    First...since you brought up earlier.

    You stated the following:

    'Not by any definition ever used.'

    And I proved to you that it had been used - many times - before.

    Are you now prepared to admit your statement was erroneous?


    Second...you did not give me the source for the formula before.

    You gave me a page reference that was over a dozen pages away from the formula I would (IMO) need to figure it out.

    Next time, try including the actual page number...please.


    Not all of us are here to try and pad our egos (in some semi-bizarre fashion) by trying to point out statistical minutia on subjects that we deal with daily at our jobs...and thusly have a greater comfort level with then others.

    In short, in my strong opinion, you come here to play anal retentive baseball with people who you think do not understand this stuff as well as you.

    And don't insult us both by denying it...it's ridiculously obvious.

    I will grant you...you are at least civil about it...which is better then many/most.

    But then don't get all but out of shape when others do it back in different subjects...aka above.

    If you can't take it...don't dish it out.


    Have a nice day.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    It's all manageable and minor. Business has gone on, been successful, regardless of any of this. History shows this clearly.
    You seem to be an expert on what everyone else does and what businesses do with higher taxes and regulations. That leads me to believe you never had a dime of your own money invested in anything nor did you ever have to meet a payroll with revenue generated from the sale of any products. I do agree with you though as most of it is manageable but the problem is that management normally means reduction in operating expenses with the easiest one to reduce and the most expensive being payroll. We are seeing businesses making record profits today and achieving high stock values due mostly to operating expenses being low because payrolls are low. Companies are doing more with less and the reverberates throughout the economy. The ones being hurt the most are small businesses which liberals want to ignore. Further what you fail to understand is how the market works. People even people like you are always looking for a good deal. Competition keeps prices low and when you raise operating expenses and cannot pass those increased costs on to the consumer you cannot print money thus you go out of business.

    The economic results of Obama are geared to the uneducated non business individual who somehow seems to believe that money grows on trees. For the govt. it basically does as they cut down trees and print cash out of the paper. Private business cannot do that. Obama has been the most anti business, anti private enterprise President this country has seen since Carter. He is making Carter look good though. Unfortunately in your world results don't seem to matter which leads me to believe as I stated you invested and managed nothing.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    I'll interpret that as "you're correct, you were not showing any political bias but I don't dare admit it."

    It's basic Stats 101. The math is high school level.

    I'll remind you that you wouldn't take my word about the reliability and demanded proof. So when I show what you asked for, you dismiss it as me showing off? Please. What would your response have been if I hadn't shown the math? Oh, you would have dismissed me for not providing proof. So basically, you were going to dismiss me no matter what.

    I get paid to know this stuff. And now I've put in my notice, so I'm a lame duck and I have time.


    The formula from the link http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf : se(x) = (ax^2 + bx)^.5 from page 196 Add in the factor for consecutive month change as mentioned later for se(x,f) = f*(ax^2 + bx)^.5

    Right there in the link. For the payroll data it might not be on that exact page, though. But in any case 90% confidence is 1.645 standard errors and 95% confidence is 1.96 standard errors. It's been a very long time since I've done the math on how to actually derive those.

    And I'm trying to explain it...but you keep dismissing my explanations as ego. I've been doing this professionally for many years...I do know what I'm talking about. That's not ego, that's fact.
    First...since you brought up earlier.

    You stated the following:

    'Not by any definition ever used.'

    And I proved to you that it had been used - many times - before.

    Are you now prepared to admit your statement was erroneous?


    Second...you did not give me the source for the formula before.

    You gave me a page reference that was over a dozen pages away from the formula I would (IMO) need to figure it out.

    Next time, try including the actual page number...please.


    Not all of us are here to try and pad our egos (in some semi-bizarre fashion) by trying to point out statistical minutia on subjects that we deal with daily at our jobs...and thusly have a greater comfort level with then others.

    In short, you come here to play anal retentive baseball with people who you think do not understand this stuff as well as you.

    And don't insult us both by denying it...it's ridiculously obvious.

    I will grant you...you are at least civil about it (which cannot be said for many/most).

    But then you shouldn't get all but out of shape when others do it back in different subjects...aka above.

    If you can't take it...don't dish it out.



    Third - as for the stats thingy...I assume you are saying that the margin of error (according to the BLS) is greater for the full time job loss number then the total new jobs number.

    Fine..noted.

    Next time, please just say that instead of that condescending manner you did originally - by asking me a question whose answer you already knew.

    It is less annoying and far less time consuming.


    Have a nice day.
    Last edited by DA60; 07-09-13 at 04:30 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithros View Post
    I would think that it never hurts to learn new things. So for the sake of my own personal eduction, which graphs show the realities within the business model that you're talking about?

    Two points.
    1). There is a fundamental distinction between analysis of the effects to one business versus that of the market as a whole. Remember, micro-economics and macro-economics are separate fields of study.
    2). Colloquial observations are not a valid substitution for actual data and rigorous analysis.

    One thing I realized very quickly after leaving graduate school was that classroom and boardroom were completely different things.

    I'm not aware of any graph or analysis that has been able to arm the business owner with a path to follow, based on the many variables they face today.

    For example, how does one account for the impact of Obamacare on a business, when the implementation has proven so daunting, parts of it have been delayed for a year?

    How does a business owner account for the impact of energy intiatives the President annouced he plans to go around Congress to adopt?

    The EPA is set to roll out a program called Environmental Justice in 2014.

    Environmental Justice | US EPA

    To a business owner, such a plan could have a major impact on future expansion, or even whether they should remain in place.

    This list could go on, but these factors certainly play into my decision making, and it seems from others I know, it plays into theirs.

    Expansion and hiring new employees is a good thing. I do not know of any business owners who feel otherwise. However, we have a duty to our families, and perhaps even a greater duty to our employees and their families, that our decisions are sound, and our plans do not risk the future of our companies, no matter how big or small.

    The current emphasis on demand does not account for the realities in the business environment. I don't reject analysis, nor do I reject other forms of statistical review, but they are only tools.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    First...since you brought up earlier.

    You stated the following:

    'Not by any definition ever used.'

    And I proved to you that it had been used - many times - before.
    In casual usage and not by any official statistics (with grey areas such as some of what we would now call discouraged could be included as uneployed before 1967). Unemployed has always in the US data meant looking for work.


    Are you now prepared to admit your statement was erroneous?
    No, because I assume you know I meant "used" as in "used in compiling official statistics" and not "used by Joe Schmoe when passing a joint with his cousin."


    Second...you did not give me the source for the formula before.
    Yes, I did. I didn't think it would be difficult to find.

    Next time, try including the actual page number...please.
    I will. I should have the first time and I apologize for not.


    Not all of us are here to try and pad our egos (in some semi-bizarre fashion) by trying to point out statistical minutia on subjects that we deal with daily at our jobs...and thusly have a greater comfort level with then others.

    In short, in my strong opinion, you come here to play anal retentive baseball with people no you think do not understand this stuff as well as you.

    And don't insult us both by denying it...it's ridiculously obvious.

    I will grant you...you are at least civil about it.
    And you are not. Or do you consider your constant insults about ego towards me to be civil? They are not.

    But then don't get all but out of shape when others do it back in different subjects...aka above.

    If you can't take it...don't dish it out.
    I have no idea what you're talking about. Which different subject?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    In casual usage and not by any official statistics (with grey areas such as some of what we would now call discouraged could be included as uneployed before 1967). Unemployed has always in the US data meant looking for work.


    No, because I assume you know I meant "used" as in "used in compiling official statistics" and not "used by Joe Schmoe when passing a joint with his cousin."
    I cannot read your mind.

    Your statement was technically wrong and I have proven it.

    If you do not wish to admit the obvious - that is your prerogative.

    If you are going to be picky to others...then I am going to be picky to you.



    And you are not. Or do you consider your constant insults about ego towards me to be civil? They are not.
    And I don't consider your somewhat condescending (though reasonably polite) attitude to me and others in this thread civil either.

    You get what you give man.


    But I will add...I do WISH most people on this board were as polite as you seem.

    I do have respect for you...especially your technical prowess on this thread's general subject source (BLS).

    But I am not going to just take it when people condescend to me or others...no matter how subtle it is....whether it's SlyFox (whom I have little respect for) or you (whom I have more respect for) or anybody.


    Good day.
    Last edited by DA60; 07-09-13 at 04:45 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    One thing I realized very quickly after leaving graduate school was that classroom and boardroom were completely different things.

    I'm not aware of any graph or analysis that has been able to arm the business owner with a path to follow, based on the many variables they face today.

    For example, how does one account for the impact of Obamacare on a business, when the implementation has proven so daunting, parts of it have been delayed for a year?

    How does a business owner account for the impact of energy intiatives the President annouced he plans to go around Congress to adopt?

    The EPA is set to roll out a program called Environmental Justice in 2014.

    Environmental Justice | US EPA

    To a business owner, such a plan could have a major impact on future expansion, or even whether they should remain in place.

    This list could go on, but these factors certainly play into my decision making, and it seems from others I know, it plays into theirs.

    Expansion and hiring new employees is a good thing. I do not know of any business owners who feel otherwise. However, we have a duty to our families, and perhaps even a greater duty to our employees and their families, that our decisions are sound, and our plans do not risk the future of our companies, no matter how big or small.

    The current emphasis on demand does not account for the realities in the business environment. I don't reject analysis, nor do I reject other forms of statistical review, but they are only tools.
    There isn't such a graph. But realize we're talking about two different things here.

    Businesses are independent profit maximizers. Their job is to maximize their profits and gobble up as much of the available market share as possible. I'm not advocating improper behaviour, but maximizing profit is their duty to their families and employees. Businesses shouldn't ever feel the need to expand when it's not in their self interest to do so. That's micro-economics.

    But we're not talking about microeconomics. We're not talking about open systems where it's possible to absorb wealth and material from the outside. We're talking about Macro-economics where there is no outside.

    The bottom line is that there amount of stuff made in the world equals the amount of stuff consumed. The economy is essentially the trading of all of these goods and services. The economy grows as people produce and therefore consume more. However, if all of the wealth is concentrated in too few hands, then the uber rich can't possibly spend what they have and the people at the bottom don't have enough wealth to make up the difference. The net result is higher unemployment.

    I know you have all of these political hot button issues, but they kind of don't matter, at least not when we're talking about fundamental problems in the economy.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    So, if a Rep was in the WH and the jobs report showed only 2 new jobs created (which you said was a good report) - would you still call that a good report?

    Yes or no, please?
    I would say that there is not a yes or no answer to your question.
    The haggardness of poverty is everywhere seen contrasted with the sleekness of wealth, the exhorted labor of some compensating for the idleness of others, wretched hovels by the side of stately colonnades, the rags of indigence blended with the ensigns of opulence; in a word, the most useless profusion in the midst of the most urgent wants.Jean-Baptiste Say

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