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Thread: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Oh, come on now.

    Believe the numbers that sound good for the Obama admin..

    But don't believe the ones that sound bad?
    Like when I pointed out that the increase in Discouraged workers was significant? You seem to have selective reading. The official jobs numbers had a statistically significant upward change.

    The huge upward change in Discouraged and Marginally Attached also were statistically significant.

    The changes in labor force, labor force participation, total employment, employment-population ratio, unemployment were not statistically significant.

    That's math, not political bias. For casual usage, we might as well go along with the numbers as published, but caution is in order.

    (Btw - I am neither rep or dem)
    Neither am I, though I tend to vote Republican or Libertarian.


    You are going to have to show link(s) to unbiased, factual proof to me that one is worth getting worked up about and one is not before I am buying into that (not that I am saying it is not potentially true).

    Can you?
    Of course I can. The change in seasonally adjusted non-parm payroll employment was +195,000 (Table B-1) Using Table 3 for AE (all employee) 1 month change from preliminary estimate, we see that the standard error is 55,726
    Using 90% confidence, (1.645 standard errors) the margin of error is +/-91,669 so with 90% confidence the actual change was between +103,331 and +286,669 Zero is not included, therefore the change is statistically significantly different from zero.

    CPS data is a little more complicated. Going to Table D1 in the Household Data appendix, starting on Page 195 for explanations, we see that for Full time employees the "a" parameter is -.0000164, the "b" parameter is "3095.55" and the factor for 1-month consecutive change is 1.11
    The average of May and June 2013 for full time workers is (116,238,000 + 115,998,000)/2 = 116,118,000 The change is -240,000 as seen in Table A9
    Plugging it into the formula we see that the Standard Error is 1.11*(-.0000164*116,118,000^2+3,095.55*116,118,000)^.5 = 412,827
    At the 90% confidence interval, that's 1.645*412,827 = 679,100 making the actual change in full time workers between -919,100 and +678,860 which does contain zero and is therefore not statistically significantly different from zero.
    Last edited by pinqy; 07-09-13 at 03:07 PM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I think you're projecting.
    just a little

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Your opinion noted, seems that your opinion is always right and thus everyone else with a different opinion is wrong. I actually ran a business, had monthly P&L's, dealt with govt. regulations therefore seem to have a more realistic view of what the problems are. You and your liberal friends see things one way and compromise isn't something to be considered. You are right, the rest of us wrong yet the results say you are wrong yet you cannot admit it.
    Not everyone, but certainly yours here. It is wrong headed.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Like when I pointed out that the increase in Discouraged workers was significant? You seem to have selective reading. The official jobs numbers had a statistically significant upward change.

    The huge upward change in Discouraged and Marginally Attached also were statistically significant.

    The changes in labor force, labor force participation, total employment, employment-population ratio, unemployment were not statistically significant.

    That's math, not political bias. For casual usage, we might as well go along with the numbers as published, but caution is in order.

    Neither am I, though I tend to vote Republican or Libertarian.
    Whatever.


    Of course I can. The change in seasonally adjusted non-parm payroll employment was +195,000 (Table B-1) Using Table 3 for AE (all employee) 1 month change from preliminary estimate, we see that the standard error is 55,726
    Using 90% confidence, (1.645 standard errors) the margin of error is +/-91,669 so with 90% confidence the actual change was between +103,331 and +286,669 Zero is not included, therefore the change is statistically significantly different from zero.

    CPS data is a little more complicated. Going to Table D1 in the Household Data appendix, starting on Page 195 for explanations, we see that for Full time employees the "a" parameter is -.0000164, the "b" parameter is "3095.55" and the factor for 1-month consecutive change is 1.11
    The average of May and June 2013 for full time workers is (116,238,000 + 115,998,000)/2 = 116,118,000 The change is -240,000 as seen in Table A9
    Plugging it into the formula we see that the Standard Error is 1.11*(-.0000164*116,118,000^2+3,095.55*116,118,000)^.5 = 412,827
    At the 90% confidence interval, that's 1.645*412,827 = 679,100 making the actual change in full time workers between -919,100 and +678,860 which does contain zero and is therefore not statistically significantly different from zero.


    Oh come on man...did you honestly think I would understand this?

    Or are you just trying to show off - which is why I think you come to this thread every month

    (Though it seems more sad then impressive to me)

    In layperson's terms...some of us have lives you know.


    Why, in essence, are you saying that one is statistically less accurate then the other?
    Last edited by DA60; 07-09-13 at 03:53 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by ocean515 View Post
    Thank you for the links, but my background and education make such an effort unnecessary.

    What you have posted is an outline of the obvious.

    The fact is, in different times, economic downturns provided opportunity for gain for those companies who invest wisly and position themselves to capitalize on the inevitable upturn. In different times, economic downturns cleared the playing field, and allowed growing companies to capture increased market share exposed by those who relinquished it.

    This time around, not so much, since continued uncertainty over the impact of policies not yet implemented cloud the analysis of the future. My business here in Southern California employs many people, requires a fair amount of energy to sustain, and involves compliance with a remarkable number of regulatory agencies. While I accept that as the cost of doing business, I would suggest it would be almost impossible to start my company from scratch in California's current regulatory environment.

    Such realities within the current business model aren't caught in graphs detailing the relationship of supply to demand, or in the effective use of capital in a fluid economic environment.
    I would think that it never hurts to learn new things. So for the sake of my own personal eduction, which graphs show the realities within the business model that you're talking about?

    Two points.
    1). There is a fundamental distinction between analysis of the effects to one business versus that of the market as a whole. Remember, micro-economics and macro-economics are separate fields of study.
    2). Colloquial observations are not a valid substitution for actual data and rigorous analysis.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Not everyone, but certainly yours here. It is wrong headed.
    Again, your opinion which should be acknowledged as an opinion, uneducated but certainly your opinion.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Again, your opinion which should be acknowledged as an opinion, uneducated but certainly your opinion.
    As is yours. So?

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    As is yours. So?
    Of course it is my opinion based upon actually being in the business world, dealing with regulations, higher taxes, a monthly financial statement, investment of personal income, and having thousands of employees. What is your expertise again?

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Whatever.
    I'll interpret that as "you're correct, you were not showing any political bias but I don't dare admit it."

    Oh come on man...did you honestly think I would understand this?
    It's basic Stats 101. The math is high school level.

    Or are you just trying to show off - which is why I think you come to this thread every month
    I'll remind you that you wouldn't take my word about the reliability and demanded proof. So when I show what you asked for, you dismiss it as me showing off? Please. What would your response have been if I hadn't shown the math? Oh, you would have dismissed me for not providing proof. So basically, you were going to dismiss me no matter what.

    In layperson's terms...some of us have lives you know.
    I get paid to know this stuff. And now I've put in my notice, so I'm a lame duck and I have time.


    What formula are you speaking of here?
    The formula from the link http://www.bls.gov/cps/eetech_methods.pdf : se(x) = (ax^2 + bx)^.5 from page 196 Add in the factor for consecutive month change as mentioned later for se(x,f) = f*(ax^2 + bx)^.5

    And where is your source of the 90% confidence.
    Right there in the link. For the payroll data it might not be on that exact page, though. But in any case 90% confidence is 1.645 standard errors and 95% confidence is 1.96 standard errors. It's been a very long time since I've done the math on how to actually derive those.

    I want to understand this.
    And I'm trying to explain it...but you keep dismissing my explanations as ego. I've been doing this professionally for many years...I do know what I'm talking about. That's not ego, that's fact.
    Last edited by pinqy; 07-09-13 at 03:57 PM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Of course it is my opinion based upon actually being in the business world, dealing with regulations, higher taxes, a monthly financial statement, investment of personal income, and having thousands of employees. What is your expertise again?
    Being in the business world doesn't make you an expert here. Besides, I'm both owner of an LLC and have run more than a few business myself. You mistake your little world as being all knowing of the larger world.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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