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Thread: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    I cannot decide what is more sad...the fact that Republicans/conservatives are always so unhappy when the jobs report comes out with a positive gain in jobs, or the fact they would be much happier if the jobs report showed a net loss of jobs.

    It's un-American really.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    I cannot decide what is more sad...the fact that Republicans/conservatives are always so unhappy when the jobs report comes out with a positive gain in jobs, or the fact they would be much happier if the jobs report showed a net loss of jobs.

    It's un-American really.
    Logical fallacy here.


    Anyway, I prefer neither. I would love to see positive numbers that I could be sure were actually positive. But don't tell me that things are getting better as I drive past shuttered businesses with locked gates, and weeds growing in the parking lots...I am not buying what the Obama is cookin'...But I certainly don't want to see negative numbers either...People are scratching by as it is, and this administration keeps its foot on the neck of the people with threats of higher prices, and taxes that scare the hell out of people like me, then turn around and try to tell me that things are getting better?

    Come on man, nobody's that stupid.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    I cannot decide what is more sad...the fact that Republicans/conservatives are always so unhappy when the jobs report comes out with a positive gain in jobs, or the fact they would be much happier if the jobs report showed a net loss of jobs.

    It's un-American really.
    What is it about actual numbers and data that you don't seem to understand and want to ignore? Can you not see what Obama is doing to the private sector that really drives this economy? Why do liberals not understand how our economy works and buy the Obama rhetoric that 7.6% unemployment is the new normal and thus a good thing?. What about the 14.3% U-6 rate and the over 1 million people that dropped out of the labor force last month.

    There isn't an individual that I know who doesn't want job creation but context matter and it is context that you want to ignore.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Logical fallacy here.
    Not really. And if I remember correctly, I've already had to educate you on fallacies before.

    Anyway, I prefer neither. I would love to see positive numbers that I could be sure were actually positive. But don't tell me that things are getting better as I drive past shuttered businesses with locked gates, and weeds growing in the parking lots...I am not buying what the Obama is cookin'...But I certainly don't want to see negative numbers either...People are scratching by as it is, and this administration keeps its foot on the neck of the people with threats of higher prices, and taxes that scare the hell out of people like me, then turn around and try to tell me that things are getting better?
    Roughly 40 months of consecutive private sector job increases and over 30 months of total job increases. Even with the increase of people in the labor force, there are less people unemployed now than there were in 2009 or 2010 during the height of the recession.

    Nobody is threatening or trying to scare you, unless you're making enough money not to worry about it. The economy has continued to get better for years, and while I know that's disappointing for people like you, it's just the truth.
    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    What is it about actual numbers and data that you don't seem to understand and want to ignore?
    I'm not ignoring anything, but what I've learned about you is that no matter how often you are proven wrong, you continue with your partisan based falsehoods. Which is why I usually ignore you.

    Can you not see what Obama is doing to the private sector that really drives this economy?
    You mean roughly 40 consecutive months of private sector job growth, even as government jobs continue to be pared down (65,000 federal jobs in the last year)?

    Why do liberals not understand how our economy works and buy the Obama rhetoric that 7.6% unemployment is the new normal and thus a good thing?.
    I didn't say anything about the unemployment rate in this thread, merely the fact that 195,000 jobs were added. I'll also mention the numbers for the past two months were revised up as well (by 70,000).

    What about the 14.3% U-6 rate
    You mean the U-6 rate that has dropped from 17.1% in 2009 and 2010 to the current 14.3%?

    See, this is what I was talking about before. I am almost 100% certain I've pointed this out to you before, and here you are again continuing with the same nonsense.

    If you don't see how a roughly 3% drop in a little over 3 years is an improvement, that pretty much says everything that needs to be said about your political blinders.

    and the over 1 million people that dropped out of the labor force last month.
    When you provide me data which shows WHY they dropped out, I might be inclined to care. Was it retirement? Was it going back to school? What is the reason? Oh, and by the way...the labor force participation rate has gone up in each of the last two months, from 63.3 in April to 63.4 in May and 63.5 in June.

    Once more, we see improvement. So...what is it about the actual numbers and data that you don't seem to understand and want to ignore?



    Sources:
    June jobs report: Hiring strong, unemployment unchanged - Jul. 5, 2013
    Molly's Middle America: How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (May 2013 update)
    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
    Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate
    http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm
    Last edited by Slyfox696; 07-05-13 at 07:05 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Slyfox696 View Post
    Not really. And if I remember correctly, I've already had to educate you on fallacies before.


    Roughly 40 months of consecutive private sector job increases and over 30 months of total job increases. Even with the increase of people in the labor force, there are less people unemployed now than there were in 2009 or 2010 during the height of the recession.

    Nobody is threatening or trying to scare you, unless you're making enough money not to worry about it. The economy has continued to get better for years, and while I know that's disappointing for people like you, it's just the truth.
    I'm not ignoring anything, but what I've learned about you is that no matter how often you are proven wrong, you continue with your partisan based falsehoods. Which is why I usually ignore you.

    You mean roughly 40 consecutive months of private sector job growth, even as government jobs continue to be pared down (65,000 federal jobs in the last year)?

    I didn't say anything about the unemployment rate in this thread, merely the fact that 195,000 jobs were added. I'll also mention the numbers for the past two months were revised up as well (by 70,000).

    You mean the U-6 rate that has dropped from 17.1% in 2009 and 2010 to the current 14.3%?

    See, this is what I was talking about before. I am almost 100% certain I've pointed this out to you before, and here you are again continuing with the same nonsense.

    If you don't see how a roughly 3% drop in a little over 3 years is an improvement, that pretty much says everything that needs to be said about your political blinders.

    When you provide me data which shows WHY they dropped out, I might be inclined to care. Was it retirement? Was it going back to school? What is the reason? Oh, and by the way...the labor force participation rate has gone up in each of the last two months, from 63.3 in April to 63.4 in May and 63.5 in June.

    Once more, we see improvement. So...what is it about the actual numbers and data that you don't seem to understand and want to ignore?



    Sources:
    June jobs report: Hiring strong, unemployment unchanged - Jul. 5, 2013
    Molly's Middle America: How Many Jobs Has Obama Created or Lost? (May 2013 update)
    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
    Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate
    United States Labor Force Statistics - Seasonally Adjusted
    I wonder what it is about liberalism that creates this kind of loyalty? You have never proven me wrong and 40 straight months of job creation means nothing to the 21 million unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers nor does it address the reality that there are 2 million fewer people working today than when the recession began. How do you explain that and how can you reconcile that with the numbers being reported?

    How does the current number of people employed which is still over a million below the pre recession numbers show employment improvement. It does appear that you have no understanding of basic economic numbers and want to buy what you are told. BLS will give you all the information you need so I suggest you go there and get the answers. Retirements aren't included in the numbers as these are people who want jobs but cannot find them.

    Does it really make any sense to you that all those jobs being created and the victory laps being taken still don't meet the population expansion? Please stop buying the rhetoric and get the facts. GW Bush had 48 straight months of job creation and even with the recession added 10 million people to the labor force.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    Are numbers that hard for you to understand?

    We lost a bunch of full-time jobs and added a bunch of part-time jobs.

    This is third-grade stuff here.
    Heya Erod. It still hasn't dawned on them about the fact of having 200k jobs every month in order to get out from under the crisis. Well 230 to be more exact. Which clearly has not taken place. So they follow the drivel that Obama touts he has created jobs. Not only part time jobs but seasonal jobs too.

    Jobs even today with all Obama has done. Are still under 2007 levels. So did he really create any jobs? Was he even able to keep pace with what Simpson Bowles and others stated had to happen? Should we count what he created overseas?


    Not too bad, if you’re the very, very patient sort.


    Employment Situation Summary

    Employment Situation Summary

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    I wonder what it is about liberalism that creates this kind of loyalty?
    I'm not a liberal. I'm also not irrational, which is why I have no problem with admitting there is an improving economy.

    You have never proven me wrong
    I did multiple times in my last post alone. You should try reading it, instead of dodging it.

    and 40 straight months of job creation means nothing to the 21 million unemployed/under employed/discouraged workers
    But it does mean something to the millions of people who have gotten a job since the height of the recession.

    But good try at trying to change the topic. We're talking about the improving economy, not your arbitrary determination of what is a good economy.

    nor does it address the reality that there are 2 million fewer people working today than when the recession began.
    But it does address the fact there are 6 million more people working today than there were at the height of the recession. Hence the concept of improving economy.

    How do you explain that and how can you reconcile that with the numbers being reported?
    The Great Recession sucked. We're recovering from it. What exactly am I supposed to be reconciling?

    No one said the economy today is better than the one before the recession, or at least I never did. What I've been saying is the economy has continued to improve under Obama since we hit the absolute valley during the recession. Why do you insist on being so blinded to the facts?

    How does the current labor force which is still over a million below the pre recession numbers show employment improvement.
    How does that matter? Why do you continue to ignore the fact the recession had an effect on the economy?

    It's not like the recession is an arbitrary line separating differing economies, allowing for today vs. yesterday. The recession was a huge sledgehammer on the economy, one from which we've continued to recover.

    It does appear that you have no understanding of basic economic numbers and want to buy what you are told.
    An amusing statement from you. You ignore the fact I'm right and instead compare today to five years ago before the economic crash. Then you quote various statistics, which I then turn on you, and you ignore them because those numbers actually prove me right and you wrong.

    BLS will give you all the information you need so I suggest you go there and get the answers.
    I already did. You're ignoring those answers because they showed you just how wrong you were.

    Retirements aren't included in the numbers as these are people who want jobs but cannot find them.
    But retirements ARE included in the number of people who drop out of the labor force, a number you keep regurgitating. Apparently you're the one who needs to spend a little time understanding basic economic numbers.


    It's really simple, and I'll say it one last time, slowly even, so that you might understand. Comparing today's economy to the one before the recession is asinine and is only done by those not interested in an honest debate on whether or not the economy is improving. An honest debate is one which looks at the numbers during the recession, studies them across the years, notes the trends and compares now to then. And when one does that, one will see the numbers, almost without exception, show a trend of continued improvement in the economy since late 2009/early 2010.

    It's really simple. I suggest you put away your partisan blinders and just look at the facts.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by MMC View Post
    Heya Erod. It still hasn't dawned on them about the fact of having 200k jobs every month in order to get out from under the crisis. Well 230 to be more exact. Which clearly has not taken place.

    So they follow the drivel that Obama touts he has created jobs. Not only part time jobs but seasonal jobs too.

    I'll probably regret asking this, but where on earth did you derive the number of 230k jobs per month?

    All headline figures are in seasonally adjusted form.

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Slyfox696;1062017337]I'm not a liberal. I'm also not irrational, which is why I have no problem with admitting there is an improving economy.
    IF you aren't a liberal then look at the numbers rationally. Do you understand the components of GDP? Don't you think that with over 6 trillion added to the debt and a 3.7 trillion dollar budget that the GDP Growth would be higher? Why shouldn't the economy be growing with that kind of spending? The problem is it isn't sustainable and the private sector isn't benefiting and that is what our economy is.

    I did multiple times in my last post alone. You should try reading it, instead of dodging it.
    Your last post doesn't prove me wrong because it doesn't address what I posted nor does it really address the BLS data or actual numbers. If you bothered to check the actual results and compare then to what Obama inherited as well as what the numbers were before the recession you wouldn't be so happy about posting the information.

    But it does mean something to the millions of people who have gotten a job since the height of the recession.
    There never were over a million people dropping out of the labor force under GW Bush and no one should be happy four years after the end of the recession that we had a million people drop out last month. 2011 and 2012 numbers were worse than the recession years. The recession ended in June 2009 so here we are 4 years later and you tout this performance?

    But good try at trying to change the topic. We're talking about the improving economy, not your arbitrary determination of what is a good economy.
    I already explained this, if the govt. spends as much money as it has spent the economy is going to improve, the problem is however this improvement is a disaster, very poor. Check out the 81-82 recession and what economic growth was at the end of that recession? It was over 7% and that recession hurt the American people worse as evidenced by the misery index

    But it does address the fact there are 6 million more people working today than there were at the height of the recession. Hence the concept of improving economy.
    That simply isn't true, there are the same number working today as were working when Obama took office and 2 million fewer than when the recession began.

    The Great Recession sucked. We're recovering from it. What exactly am I supposed to be reconciling?
    The "Great Recession" wasn't worse than the 81-82 recession as I lived through both. Good leadership would have promoted private sector growth, Obama failed.

    No one said the economy today is better than the one before the recession, or at least I never did. What I've been saying is the economy has continued to improve under Obama since we hit the absolute valley during the recession. Why do you insist on being so blinded to the facts?
    My facts include the debt, deficits, economic growth, U-6 numbers. show me which numbers are better today than when the recession began in December 2007? Why do you have such low standards when it comes to Obama performance?

    How does that matter? Why do you continue to ignore the fact the recession had an effect on the economy?
    I don't, the recession ended in June 2009, what economic policies did Obama have in effect in June 2009 that ended the recession and what economic policies has Obama implemented that has made things better?

    It's not like the recession is an arbitrary line separating differing economies, allowing for today vs. yesterday. The recession was a huge sledgehammer on the economy, one from which we've continued to recover.
    You buy the rhetoric, why? How many recessions have you lived and worked through? Poor leadership prolonged the recession and yet Obama gets a pass. We are a private sector economy that Obama doesn't understand.

    An amusing statement from you. You ignore the fact I'm right and instead compare today to five years ago before the economic crash. Then you quote various statistics, which I then turn on you, and you ignore them because those numbers actually prove me right and you wrong.
    The recession ran from December 2007 to June 2009. It is June 2013 and shouldn't the performance be better?

    I already did. You're ignoring those answers because they showed you just how wrong you were.
    Then tell me exactly with numbers what I am wrong about?

    But retirements ARE included in the number of people who drop out of the labor force, a number you keep regurgitating. Apparently you're the one who needs to spend a little time understanding basic economic numbers.
    Retirements are out of the labor force but not counted as discouraged workers. You don't seem to know the difference nor do you account for the people entering the labor force. The problem is the discouraged workers and under employed so maybe you ought to learn what those numbers mean.

    It's really simple, and I'll say it one last time, slowly even, so that you might understand. Comparing today's economy to the one before the recession is asinine and is only done by those not interested in an honest debate on whether or not the economy is improving. An honest debate is one which looks at the numbers during the recession and compares them to now. And when one does that, one will see the numbers, almost without exception, show a trend of continued improvement in the economy since late 2009/early 2010.
    Sorry but you are wrong, that is what anyone has to compare results with and that is what Obama supporters always want to ignore. Obama has been an absolute failure, he said he had the answers to the problems, implemented an 842 billion dollar stimulus program and has failed. the results today are a disaster based upon the money spent and the results generated. How long are you willing to give Obama to get the numbers back to pre recession dates? You like far too many want to ignore that the recession ended in June 2009 according to BEA

    It's really simple. I suggest you put away your partisan blinders and just look at the facts.
    Sorry, but I spent 35 years in the Business world and was a born and raised Democrat. I learned to admit when I was wrong and that happened in 1980. One of these days that may happen to you as well. I know the private sector works, I understand personal responsibility, I understand the role of govt. Many here do not

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    Re: U.S. Adds 195,000 Jobs; Unemployment Remains 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    I'll probably regret asking this, but where on earth did you derive the number of 230k jobs per month?

    All headline figures are in seasonally adjusted form.
    Well, that's what they reported back in 2008. Although it was more like 229 and some change so I rounded off.

    here is one: we show job losses since the beginning of the Recession (excluding for the impact of census hiring), juxtaposed to the natural growth rate of the Labor Pool (and not the artificial one, which according to the BLS is the same now as it was a year ago). We discover that i) 7.6 Million absolute jobs have been lost since the beginning of the Recession; ii) that a record 10.5 Million jobs (and you won't find this statistic anywhere), have been lost when factoring in for the natural growth of the Labor Pool of 90-100K a month (we use the lower estimate, which also happens to be the CBO's estimate), and that iii) assuming we expect to return to the jobs baseline level as of December 2007 (or an unemployment rate of 5%) by the end of Obama's second term (and we make the big assumption there will be a second term), Obama needs to create 230,000 jobs each and every month consecutively from September through November 2016 in order for the total jobs lost to be put back into the labor force, and that iv) an optimistic (if more realistic) projection of jobs returning to the work force means the return the baseline will occur in 2019, some 7 years after the start of the last recession. The point of these observations is not to cast political blame on either party: we are in this predicament due to the combined stupidity, corruption and greed of both parties. The question is how do we get out of here. And unfortunately for all those hoping that a return to a normal, baseline past is possible, please forget it (i.e., the New Normal is really real), at least for the next 7 years. This also means that any charting, technical analysis and other "reversion to the mean" approaches of forecasting the future will all end up sorely lacking and misrepresenting the final outcome.

    Chart 1: a simple baseline chart that shows where we were, where we are, and where we are going, with the assumption of recovering all labor force growth-adjusted jobs losses from December 2007 through the end of Obama's second term. The conclusion: the economy needs 229,300 jobs per month (incidentally, for the simplistic read on the labor force which does not account for demographic changes, which economists tend to conveniently forget all too often, a 230K jobs pick up a month, means a recoupment of baseline jobs lost in June of 2013).



    Chart 2: We demonstrate that the cumulative jobs lost since December 2007, are in fact materially greater when adjusting for a realistic change in the labor force, instead of that presented by the administration, which naively expect people to believe that the labor force in August 2010 (154,110) was lower than that in August 2009 (154,426). That in the meantime the US population grew by 2.5 million seems to make no difference to the administration. Which only means that sooner or later this labor force participation will catch up to the numbers. Either way, we factor for it, and assume that the labor force was growing by 90K every month since the start of the recession, and add the cumulative differential to the jobs lost. The result: in the 33 months through August, the US has lost not 7.6 million jobs, but 10.5 million: a stunning 38% delta.....snip~

    Also, from Bank of America Ethan Harris back then.....

    Under the weaker growth trajectory we are now penciling in:

    Private payrolls manage tepid monthly gains of just 25,000 through the end of 2010. As the growth recession fades in the second half of 2011, gains in private payroll employment should accelerate. We expect average monthly gains of 125,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.
    Therefore, for most of 2010 and 2011, employment growth is not expected to keep up with the rise in the labor force, which means the unemployment rate heads north. We expect a steady increase to 10.1% by the second quarter with a slow fall slightly below 10.0% by the end of 2011.
    Last edited by MMC; 07-05-13 at 08:15 PM.

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