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Thread: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by Drake McHugh View Post
    Yes,they are going to admit that they basically abdicate their job! Not to mention the fact that they were dead wrong on Obamacare and EVERY estimate(always WAY low). They use the numbers given to them.
    Economic forecasting is an inherently difficult job on account of the enormous complexity of human behavior, among other factors. In general, the quality of economic forecasts is not good. Not surprisingly projections that depend largely on economic forecasts e.g., long-term fiscal impacts, also are subject to very large errors.

    As for the projections concerning the immigration legislation, one should not expect precision in the outcomes relative to the projections. However, there is reason for at least a degree of confidence in the direction of the change e.g., some reduction in long-term debt relative to current law, because that's what happened following the 1986 immigration reform from changes in legalized immigrants' income, which boosted tax revenue growth. Some structural changes that have occurred since that time might argue for a somewhat more muted response this time around over the long-term.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by WCH View Post
    The Senate’s pending immigration bill will pave the way for the arrival of 46 million legal immigrants over the next 20 years, increase the federal debt in the same time period and shrink Americans’ average wage, according Alabama Republican Sen. Jeff Session’s critical reading of two new reports on the pending immigration reform bill provided by the Congressional Budget Office.

    But Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, the most prominent GOP advocate for the immigration reform bill, says the CBO reports are good news for Americans.

    “The CBO has further confirmed what most conservative economists have found: reforming our immigration system is a net benefit for our economy, American workers and taxpayers,” Rubio said in a statement on Tuesday. “The report offers encouraging evidence that the [bill could] reduce the deficit over the next 20 years.”



    Read more: CBO says Senate bill will add 46 million immigrants to the United States | The Daily Caller
    Once again we get our panties in a bunch by something we read on a political porn site.... whose sole purpose is to put your panties in a bunch. Congratulations: you've been had.

    Why not find something legitimate to support your position, like, say, the CBO report and start from there.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Rubio tried to sell us this bill on the idea that illegal immigration would stop. Thats obvisouly not the case, and thats all that matters here. The supposed economic benefit is irrelevant. Even Rubio is about to bail since the Senate is trying to strip border control from the bill. Americans are not entirely dumb and they dont support amnesty.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    I'd make a couple of points here as an outside observer.

    1. Canada, on average, takes in the neighborhood of 250,000 new entrants into the country each year and is generally able to smoothly absorb them although there are significant costs to large cities like Toronto where the social costs to the city's residents are not fully funded by the federal government who allows the new entrants in. That said, since America is 10 times Canada's population and your economy is significantly greater than that in comparison to Canada's, one would assume that an average of 2.5 million new entrants to the US each year would be manageable, statistically.

    2. Since the US currently has stagnant growth and an underperforming economy with millions out of work and millions more leaving the workforce in frustration at not finding work, one has to wonder where the CBO currently sees increased tax revenue from these new immigrants. It is true, however, that the workforce in the US is aging, as it is in Canada, and our birthrates are not sufficient to generate the necessary workforce to support the aging population so immigration is necessary to provide that workforce. But what kind of skills will these immigrants bring - America, nor Canada, needs much more in the area of unskilled labor.

    3. These CBO numbers are for "legal" immigration. How many more millions will find their way into the US illegally? If there have been as reported about 12 to 15 milliion illegals in the US since the 1986 amnesty, with countless others they have birthed since being in America, how has the continued influx of illegals been considered in this report and going forward?

    There are lots of other questions that should be asked - America is a very generous country but to believe that this immigration reform is a money maker going forward seems ludicrous to me.
    "Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views." William F. Buckley Jr.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    I'd make a couple of points here as an outside observer.

    1. Canada, on average, takes in the neighborhood of 250,000 new entrants into the country each year and is generally able to smoothly absorb them although there are significant costs to large cities like Toronto where the social costs to the city's residents are not fully funded by the federal government who allows the new entrants in. That said, since America is 10 times Canada's population and your economy is significantly greater than that in comparison to Canada's, one would assume that an average of 2.5 million new entrants to the US each year would be manageable, statistically.

    2. Since the US currently has stagnant growth and an underperforming economy with millions out of work and millions more leaving the workforce in frustration at not finding work, one has to wonder where the CBO currently sees increased tax revenue from these new immigrants. It is true, however, that the workforce in the US is aging, as it is in Canada, and our birthrates are not sufficient to generate the necessary workforce to support the aging population so immigration is necessary to provide that workforce. But what kind of skills will these immigrants bring - America, nor Canada, needs much more in the area of unskilled labor.

    3. These CBO numbers are for "legal" immigration. How many more millions will find their way into the US illegally? If there have been as reported about 12 to 15 milliion illegals in the US since the 1986 amnesty, with countless others they have birthed since being in America, how has the continued influx of illegals been considered in this report and going forward?

    There are lots of other questions that should be asked - America is a very generous country but to believe that this immigration reform is a money maker going forward seems ludicrous to me.
    Good morning, CJ.

    Excellent post, with questions that are going to have to be answered sooner than anyone would like. Right now, the emphasis seems to be on getting as many immigrants as possible in order to swell the ranks of those that will probably vote Democrat. The "productive" wagon is being pulled by fewer and fewer people, though, as the number of immigrants is increasing percentage wise. What kind of jobs do the Democrats have in mind for these immigrants to be able to pay their share of taxes? I have heard nothing about that problem. We don't have sufficient jobs for people who want to work now...how are we going to provide jobs for millions of new immigrants?

    Short-sighted scenarios always bring problems, and this will be no different, IMO!

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    2. Since the US currently has stagnant growth and an underperforming economy with millions out of work and millions more leaving the workforce in frustration at not finding work, one has to wonder where the CBO currently sees increased tax revenue from these new immigrants. It is true, however, that the workforce in the US is aging, as it is in Canada, and our birthrates are not sufficient to generate the necessary workforce to support the aging population so immigration is necessary to provide that workforce. But what kind of skills will these immigrants bring - America, nor Canada, needs much more in the area of unskilled labor.
    The empirical evidence following the 1986 immigration reform revealed:

    1) A jump in immigrants' income
    2) Legalized immigrants pursued opportunities to enhance their skills/education, and that led to further increases in income
    3) Increases in income contributed to tax revenue growth

    3. These CBO numbers are for "legal" immigration. How many more millions will find their way into the US illegally? If there have been as reported about 12 to 15 milliion illegals in the US since the 1986 amnesty, with countless others they have birthed since being in America, how has the continued influx of illegals been considered in this report and going forward?
    The legislation contains mechanisms aimed at reducing the number of undocumented immigrants making it to the U.S. /able to work in the U.S. (tighter border security, e-verify, etc.). Absent the legislation, the barriers to undocumented immigration would be lower. Hence, assuming that border control and e-verify can reduce undocumented immigration, one should see fewer new undocumented immigrants following the adoption of the law than under current law.

    There are lots of other questions that should be asked - America is a very generous country but to believe that this immigration reform is a money maker going forward seems ludicrous to me.
    Even if the CBO's numbers are reasonably accurate, the net positive fiscal impact will be modest. CBO is not suggesting that adoption of the law would yield a large fiscal windfall. The undocumented immigrants account for a small share of the overall U.S. population, so the impact can't realistically be anything but modest.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    Once again we get our panties in a bunch by something we read on a political porn site.... whose sole purpose is to put your panties in a bunch. Congratulations: you've been had.

    Why not find something legitimate to support your position, like, say, the CBO report and start from there.
    I've heard these same numbers (and more) in the past. Chain migration increases the total dramatically.

    The CBO is generally FOS.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by CanadaJohn View Post
    I'd make a couple of points here as an outside observer.

    1. Canada, on average, takes in the neighborhood of 250,000 new entrants into the country each year and is generally able to smoothly absorb them although there are significant costs to large cities like Toronto where the social costs to the city's residents are not fully funded by the federal government who allows the new entrants in. That said, since America is 10 times Canada's population and your economy is significantly greater than that in comparison to Canada's, one would assume that an average of 2.5 million new entrants to the US each year would be manageable, statistically.

    2. Since the US currently has stagnant growth and an underperforming economy with millions out of work and millions more leaving the workforce in frustration at not finding work, one has to wonder where the CBO currently sees increased tax revenue from these new immigrants. It is true, however, that the workforce in the US is aging, as it is in Canada, and our birthrates are not sufficient to generate the necessary workforce to support the aging population so immigration is necessary to provide that workforce. But what kind of skills will these immigrants bring - America, nor Canada, needs much more in the area of unskilled labor.

    3. These CBO numbers are for "legal" immigration. How many more millions will find their way into the US illegally? If there have been as reported about 12 to 15 milliion illegals in the US since the 1986 amnesty, with countless others they have birthed since being in America, how has the continued influx of illegals been considered in this report and going forward?

    There are lots of other questions that should be asked - America is a very generous country but to believe that this immigration reform is a money maker going forward seems ludicrous to me.
    For the libertarians here, a lot this is moot, as we dont beleive the federal govt should use immigration to control the economy. The purpose of border control is security. So, if someone wants to come into the country, they should be free to so long as they wont be violent. The issues of birth rates, labor force, labor skills are not the responsibility of the federal govt. If someone imigrates here and cant find a job, they will leave or starve. What the states do is a different matter.

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by WCH View Post
    I've heard these same numbers (and more) in the past. Chain migration increases the total dramatically.

    The CBO is generally FOS.
    Greetings, WCH.


    The CBO does the best they can under the circumstances, IMO. The CBO can only project on the data they are given to work with. If the data is faulty, then what faith can we put in their projections, even if they issue disclaimers?

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    Re: Senate bill allows 46 million immigrants by 2033, says CBO

    Quote Originally Posted by polgara View Post
    Greetings, WCH.


    The CBO does the best they can under the circumstances, IMO. The CBO can only project on the data they are given to work with. If the data is faulty, then what faith can we put in their projections, even if they issue disclaimers?
    That's likely correct in this case. I know there was an out-cry immediately after it's release, just not sure for what sector.

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