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Yes, I've always thought a nationwide decision was very unlikely in this case. The judges seem skittish to get too far out in front of this issue. I suspect their decision will be limited to California.
On the other hand, we've seen a cascade of states and even other nations making decisions on this very recently. SCOTUS might see the and just go "well, public support is rapidly changing so lets not worry about going too fast."
Why Both Sides Want Gay Marriage Settled By The States : NPR
I guess the politics of SSM vary so much from state to state (Prop 8) that a sweeping decision wouldn't suit them. According to this article the issue has almost moved too fast in support for its proponents own good.
They didn't want a repeat of the abortion issue. With its landmark decision in Roe v. Wade, the high court stepped in and guaranteed a right to abortion but also triggered a backlash that has lasted for 40 years.
With same-sex marriage, by contrast, legislators and voters in nearly every state had the chance to make their feelings known before the Supreme Court weighs in.
"People forget that durable rights don't come from courts, they come from consensus and strong support from society," says Jonathan Rauch, author of Denial, a recent memoir about growing up gay. "We are winning the right to marriage in a bigger, deeper way by winning it in the court of public opinion."