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Thread: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

  1. #71
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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    ......... What matters is that the LFPR is shrinking because of retirement/discouraged workers (probably mostly the latter) which is making the U-3 look far better then it really is.
    FYI, the BLS did a study in 2004, based completely on census data, that measured the projected impact of baby-boomer retirements on the labor force for the 10 year period 2005-2014. These are hard numbers as folks can't grow old but at a very set rate.

    During that time frame, the impact was going to be all of a 0.4% negative influence on the LFPR. Which means that for Obama's term so far. where we have seen a 2.3% drop in the LFPR, only 0.2% can be blamed on retirements. 2.1% is on Obama's economy.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Among conspiratorial crackpots perhaps. No evidence exists that suggests political gamesmanship or a shift in practices in accordance with Administration changes.
    I don't know about that.

    Jack Welch certainly didn't believe the administration's jobs numbers before the election either but remember the whole Jobs Saved or Created "statistic" the administration loved early on? That administration specific statistic had everyone employed half a dozen times over no matter how high unemployment rose!

    I wouldn't say these jobs added/unemployment numbers are part of a government conspiracy though. Politicians have been manipulating them since their inception but there has always been a media pointing out just how foolish the politicians were - until now. For some reason the New York Times, etc. has forgotten people stop being counted after they've been out of work for too long.
    Last edited by Dapper Andy; 06-11-13 at 02:53 PM.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by trfjr View Post
    you uniformed idiot. you are a prime example how ignorance of the American public is what got Obama reelected

    May 31, 2013
    63.40%

    April 30, 2013
    63.30%

    March 31, 2013
    63.30%

    Feb. 28, 2013
    63.50%

    Jan. 31, 2013
    63.60%

    Dec. 31, 2012
    63.60%

    Nov. 30, 2012
    63.60%

    Oct. 31, 2012
    63.80%

    Sept. 30, 2012
    63.60%

    Aug. 31, 2012
    63.50%

    July 31, 2012
    63.70%

    June 30, 2012
    63.80%

    May 31, 2012
    63.80%

    April 30, 2012
    63.60%

    March 31, 2012
    63.80%

    Feb. 29, 2012
    63.90%

    Jan. 31, 2012
    63.70%

    Dec. 31, 2011
    64.00%

    Nov. 30, 2011
    64.10%

    Oct. 31, 2011
    64.10%

    Sept. 30, 2011
    64.20%

    Aug. 31, 2011
    64.10%

    July 31, 2011
    64.00%

    June 30, 2011
    64.00%

    May 31, 2011
    64.20%

    US Labor Force Participation Rate (Monthly, SA)
    Hey now..you are right about the stats...but no need to be calling people 'idiots'.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Hey...you are right about the stats.

    But no need to be calling people 'idiots'.
    I call them as i see them. anyone to make such a false claim are either idiots or liars and they have no creditability, They need to be called out for it so others know not to believe anything they say

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Obama falls flat on economy | Las Vegas Review-Journal

    That performance will establish Obama firmly as the worst president ever on the economy. Obama’s GDP growth is less than half as much as the worst president in the past 60 years.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    FYI, the BLS did a study in 2004, based completely on census data, that measured the projected impact of baby-boomer retirements on the labor force for the 10 year period 2005-2014. These are hard numbers as folks can't grow old but at a very set rate.

    During that time frame, the impact was going to be all of a 0.4% negative influence on the LFPR. Which means that for Obama's term so far. where we have seen a 2.3% drop in the LFPR, only 0.2% can be blamed on retirements. 2.1% is on Obama's economy.
    People dont retire at a set age, so they arent hard numbers.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by trfjr View Post
    I call them as i see them. anyone to make such a false claim are either idiots or liars and they have no creditability, They need to be called out for it so others know not to believe anything they say
    Then be civil about it. Otherwise your post will be removed.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by trfjr View Post
    you uniformed idiot. you are a prime example how ignorance of the American public is what got Obama reelected
    I said Labor Force, not Labor Force Participation Rate. If you don't understand the difference between Level and Rate, there's no hope for you.

    And your dates are off, by the way....the reference period is the week that contains the 12th, not the last day of the month.


    So like I said, some ups and downs, but mostly up.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Yeah, the rate went up. And what happened to the U-3? It went up too, despite enough jobs being created that it probably should have stayed at 7.5%.
    I was talking about the UE rate.

    That just shows how much higher the U-3 would be if all the discouraged workers that have left the work force since Obama took over were actually counted as part of the work force (which they should be, IMO).
    Except the U4, which includes the Discouraged, went down in May because the number of Discouraged dropped.

    During Obama's term(s), the LFPR (Labor Force Participation Rate) has been dropping like a stone.

    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
    Wow, you said something true.

    As for the labor force going up? So what? All that means is the birth/immigration rate is still growing strong.
    It means nothing of the sort. Do you even know what the Labor Force is? Births and immigration would have zero effect on it per se. The Labor Force is Employed plus Unemployed. How you figure births have anything to do with it is beyone me.

    What matters is that the LFPR is shrinking because of retirement/discouraged workers (probably mostly the latter) which is making the U-3 look far better then it really is.
    Actually, it's mostly the 16-24 year olds either not entering or dropping out of the Labor Force.
    Last edited by pinqy; 06-11-13 at 04:07 PM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    If you can't understand how a decrease in the LFPR will mask real unemployment, then you won't understand any further explanation, and I surely do not waste my time when Google can be your friend.
    See, you make all thes claims, but refuse to back them up. Define "real unemployment." (you won't, of course...or if you try to, you won't defend it methodologically) And since the Labor Force participation rate is a dependent variable, not an independent one, it cannot be manipulated.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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