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Thread: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Of course, just as was for Bush and every other president before him. All
    government can do, is spend money to hire people. That would be shovel ready propositions. It helps stop the bleeding, but it is not the answer in the long run. in the long run they need factors outside government control to start working. It's a fiction that you can fix our economy based on who is elected.
    Mass psychosis....those with common sense and a good understanding of our free market economy are witness to a mass psychosis.

    Its either that or there is a common link between all Liberals. Maybe they weren't raised correctly, never taught the value of integrity and humility who knows.

    There are OBVIOUS correlations to the health of this economy and the media creation you guys fell for in 2008....and 2012.

    I mean it would take a head full of ideological backed ignorance to make a statement like the one you just made.

  2. #142
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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    This is gobbledy-gook. The numbers that I cited are accurate, as is the interpretation. It is the number needed to keep U-3 relatively steady, exactly as I said.
    Yeah, explain that math. The U-3 is Unemployed/(Employed + Unemployed) so in order to maintain a steady U-3, unemployment would have to go up as well, by the same percent. Now that's certainly possible but it certainly complicates the matter of number of "new jobs needed." Usually people are talking about the number of new jobs to keep the Employment-Population ratio steady.

    Oh, and you should look up the difference between jobs and total employment. The jobs numbers aren't used in the labor force statistics because they only count non-farm payroll jobs. To apply new jobs, you have to translate into approximate change of total employment.

    The fact remains that it is because of these anomalies that Obamabots can claim that unemployment is where it was when Obama took office, yet we are more than 2 million jobs short of where we would have needed to be for that to be accurate, if not for the huge manipulation of the LFPR by the Administration.
    I have no idea how you think the LFPR can be manipulated. Do you think it's arbitrarily set?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  3. #143
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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Yeah, explain that math. The U-3 is Unemployed/(Employed + Unemployed) so in order to maintain a steady U-3, unemployment would have to go up as well, by the same percent. Now that's certainly possible but it certainly complicates the matter of number of "new jobs needed." Usually people are talking about the number of new jobs to keep the Employment-Population ratio steady.

    Oh, and you should look up the difference between jobs and total employment. The jobs numbers aren't used in the labor force statistics because they only count non-farm payroll jobs. To apply new jobs, you have to translate into approximate change of total employment.

    I have no idea how you think the LFPR can be manipulated. Do you think it's arbitrarily set?
    I cannot fix what ails you.

    You will never be an actuary, btw.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    I cannot fix what ails you.
    Nothing ails me. I understand the actual concepts and methodolgy very well. But what you're saying makes no sense, so clearly your understanding is off. I find it interesting that you make assertions, but then refuse to back them up.

    Fact: the Labor Force Participation rate cannot be manipulated. There's no way to do it. I'm curious how you think it's done, otherwise I can't correct your misunderstanding.

    You will never be an actuary, btw.
    I'm fine as a labor economist, thank you.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Fact: the Labor Force Participation rate cannot be manipulated. There's no way to do it. I'm curious how you think it's done, otherwise I can't correct your misunderstanding.
    Then show us how it is verified ?

    I'm fine as a labor economist, thank you.
    OK ..............

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    Then show us how it is verified ?
    Why would it need to be verified? You don't seem to know what the Participation rate even means.

    But ok, let's try this: For a fictional country, we'll say the Total Population is 10,000,000. There are 7,700,000 people 16 and older who are not in the military, prison, or an institution. There are 4,260,000 employed, 385,000 looking for work, 2,695,000 not in the labor force, but 202,000 of them say they really want a job, but they're not looking and/or not available.

    So how, if you were a dishonest govt beaurocrat, would you manipulate the LFPR and manipulate so that the UE rate is what you want it to be?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  7. #147
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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    Why would it need to be verified? You don't seem to know what the Participation rate even means.

    But ok, let's try this: For a fictional country, we'll say the Total Population is 10,000,000. There are 7,700,000 people 16 and older who are not in the military, prison, or an institution. There are 4,260,000 employed, 385,000 looking for work, 2,695,000 not in the labor force, but 202,000 of them say they really want a job, but they're not looking and/or not available.

    So how, if you were a dishonest govt beaurocrat, would you manipulate the LFPR and manipulate so that the UE rate is what you want it to be?
    LFPR is "determined" by a phone survey conducted on behalf of the BLS. These people have banks of phone numbers, with known or anticipated results based on previous results. You maintain that it is objective. Just like the IRS eh ? Show us where these numbers have ever been "verified". Point being, you can't.

    Have you ever been called ? Has anyone here ever been called ?

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Eighty Deuce View Post
    LFPR is "determined" by a phone survey conducted on behalf of the BLS. These people have banks of phone numbers, with known or anticipated results based on previous results.
    Wrong right away. The Current Population survey does not use phone numbers in the sample. The sample is by household address. Initial interviews are required to be in person with the Census agent (unless the respondent contacts Census and sets up a phone interview). Households are in the survey for 4 months, out for 8, back in for 4. The return to the survey is also required to be in person. The other months can be by phone if the respondent prefers (and most do).

    But you dodged my question as you always do. You don't say how exactly and from what information and by what the LFPR is determined. I gave you an example, but you can't tell me how you could manipulate the LFPR from that info. I'm pretty sure you couldn't even figure out the UE rate.

    As for your conspiracy theory...the survey has been going on since 1942. Conducted by Census, processed by BLS, available for access by BEA, raw data available to researchers, Congressional oversight. Thousands and thousands of people would have to have been involved in this conspiracy over the last 70 years, but noone has ever claimed manipulation.

    There's no particular reason I or anybody I know would be in the survey....60,000 houses each month and with the rotation scheme it works out to around 200,000 houses a year. Very low odds of an individual house being picked.



    You maintain that it is objective. Just like the IRS eh ? Show us where these numbers have ever been "verified". Point being, you can't.

    Have you ever been called ? Has anyone here ever been called ?[/QUOTE]
    Last edited by pinqy; 06-14-13 at 01:57 PM.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

  9. #149
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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Fenton View Post
    Mass psychosis....those with common sense and a good understanding of our free market economy are witness to a mass psychosis.

    Its either that or there is a common link between all Liberals. Maybe they weren't raised correctly, never taught the value of integrity and humility who knows.

    There are OBVIOUS correlations to the health of this economy and the media creation you guys fell for in 2008....and 2012.

    I mean it would take a head full of ideological backed ignorance to make a statement like the one you just made.
    You must have a psychosis then as there is no link to the economy and either liberal or conservative leadership. Both sides try to show one. Both sides present numbers. And both sides are using flawed data, rip with logical reasoning errors.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: May employment report: Economy adds 175K jobs

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    You must have a psychosis then as there is
    no link to the economy and either liberal or conservative leadership. Both sides try to show one. Both sides present numbers. And both sides are using flawed data, rip with logical reasoning errors.
    Oh Bull Sh**.

    Its it my fault your too aflicted to understand the consequences of perpetual QE ?

    Because its not. I don't need to lie for Obama, nor do I need to rehash old and empty talking points about George Bush to understand we're screwed financially.

    Everything I've said so far is accurate, even without links to back it up.

    You guys elected a corrupt ideology, not a man and have burdened millions of American citizens with your gullibillity and ignorance for years to come.

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