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Thread: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    The numbers say otherwise ...

    Employment
    Jan/2009: 142,153,000
    Apr/2013: 143,579,000

    According to BLS, there are 1,426,000 more people working today than there were when Obama became president.


    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
    Again with stats, and omission to shape them to what you want to promote eh....If that many more people are now working, how does that stack up against population growth in the job market?
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    The numbers say otherwise ...

    Employment
    Jan/2009: 142,153,000
    Apr/2013: 143,579,000

    According to BLS, there are 1,426,000 more people working today than there were when Obama became president.


    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
    Even if those numbers were accurate - and they're not - McDonalds part time doesn't count, and that doesn't keep pace with the graduates and 16-year-olds entering the market.

    Those on welfare and food stamps are at an all-time high.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Again with stats, and omission to shape them to what you want to promote eh....If that many more people are now working, how does that stack up against population growth in the job market?
    There's nothing else you have to work with. There is no other way to measure employment. It's not my problem that you don't like the numbers.

    As far as keeping up with population growth, that has been happening for the last two years now.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Well, I have to apologize because some of that is over my head, but as an average workin' stiff, digging into statistics, (which we all know can be, and are manipulated) are not how average people look at this economy. There are what I like to call "gut measures"....
    No need to apologize, it gets pretty technical. Just keep in mind that the people actually collecting and putting together the statistics have no motive or reason to manipulate anything. The "manipulation" comes in the analysis and what politicians say the numbers mean. And of course, with any statistics, there are plenty of sources of error and the numbers, no matter how carefully collected and tabulated, can be off just by chance.

    How many people do they know that are either unemployed, or underemployed?
    What does the business landscape look like? (shops closed, strip malls shuttered, etc.)
    What are the big employment drivers in the community doing, are factories hiring?
    The problem with that is that we're a big country. The unemployment rate varies from 3.1% in Midland, TX to 26% in Yuma, AZ. So just looking around isn't all that accurate. For folks in Midland, everything looks fine, but there are parts of Texas with UE rate over 10% And for folks from Yuma up the Califonia Central Valley, it looks like a Depression.

    The only thing I can tell you is that I haven't seen this type of misery out there in the jobs market since the late 70s.
    In some ways it's worse. Long term unemployment (15 or more weeks) is just horrible right now. During Reagan's recession it briefly was as bad as it is now, but it's never been as bad as it got to a couple years ago.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Again with stats, and omission to shape them to what you want to promote eh....If that many more people are now working, how does that stack up against population growth in the job market?
    In the job market? Well, employment is up 1,426,000, unemployment is down 420,000

    For those Not in the Labor Force (not working and not looking for work), those who don't want a job are up 8,716,000 and those who say they want a job (but aren't classified unemployed because they're not trying to work) is up 716,000
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    In the job market? Well, employment is up 1,426,000, unemployment is down 420,000

    For those Not in the Labor Force (not working and not looking for work), those who don't want a job are up 8,716,000 and those who say they want a job (but aren't classified unemployed because they're not trying to work) is up 716,000
    Yeah, at this point it just becomes a classic shell game, or three card monty...I am not buying any of it anymore.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Yeah, at this point it just becomes a classic shell game, or three card monty.
    How do you figure? How is it in any way a shell game or 3 card monty? How do you think that works?
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    How do you figure? How is it in any way a shell game or 3 card monty? How do you think that works?
    Well, how do you think it works when in one months reporting you have say 130,000 jobs created, and in the same report you have 350,000 new applications for unemployment benefits, and they tell us that the percentage went down.....Yeah, right....Then to make it worse two months later they come back and tell us "oh, you remember that 130,000 number, in actuality it was really only 85,000 jobs, but the percentage stayed the same......

    I was born at night, but not last night.....
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Well, how do you think it works when in one months reporting you have say 130,000 jobs created, and in the same report you have 350,000 new applications for unemployment benefits, and they tell us that the percentage went down.....Yeah, right...
    ok, you're mixing 3 unrelated things. "New jobs" is the NET change of jobs each month, derived from a survey of businesses and released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

    Initial claims is the weekly number of new UI claims released every week by the Employment and Training Administration. Obviously that can't account for new hires, so you can't really compare it to net job change.

    And the Unemployment rate (monthly by BLS) comes from a household survey and uses a different measure of employment (more comprehensive, less accurate) and doesn't just count people receiving benefits.

    .Then to make it worse two months later they come back and tell us "oh, you remember that 130,000 number, in actuality it was really only 85,000 jobs, but the percentage stayed the same......
    For various reasons, not all companies in the jobs survey report on time, so the numbers are subject to revision, But as I said, the jobs numbers aren't used in the UE rate calculations, so those revisions won't affect the rate.

    I was born at night, but not last night.....
    Why do you assume that, if the numbers don't make sense it's because of (incompetent if so obvious) manipulation, rather than think you might be missing something?

    If something doesn't make sense, ask me, and I'll explain and/or show you where to look.
    Therefore, since the world has still/Much good, but much less good than ill,
    And while the sun and moon endure/Luck's a chance, but trouble's sure,
    I'd face it as a wise man would,/And train for ill and not for good.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    ok, you're mixing 3 unrelated things. "New jobs" is the NET change of jobs each month, derived from a survey of businesses and released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

    Initial claims is the weekly number of new UI claims released every week by the Employment and Training Administration. Obviously that can't account for new hires, so you can't really compare it to net job change.

    And the Unemployment rate (monthly by BLS) comes from a household survey and uses a different measure of employment (more comprehensive, less accurate) and doesn't just count people receiving benefits.

    For various reasons, not all companies in the jobs survey report on time, so the numbers are subject to revision, But as I said, the jobs numbers aren't used in the UE rate calculations, so those revisions won't affect the rate.



    Why do you assume that, if the numbers don't make sense it's because of (incompetent if so obvious) manipulation, rather than think you might be missing something?

    If something doesn't make sense, ask me, and I'll explain and/or show you where to look.
    I hate to say it, but economics on a macro level like this just hurts my head....All I know is that something isn't right about this whole thing, and when it doesn't feel right, I have pretty good instincts about this sort of thing....
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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