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Thread: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Just not limiting it to you, and I added more than you do. You do the socialist thing.
    Oh, you added....Well, that certainly makes the wrong personal attack acceptable.... Just knock it off Joe. I have already explained Obama's socialist sympathies. Do I think he is "a socialist" no. Do I think he is sympathetic with lines of thought that match up, or run parallel with Marx? yes.

    Don't recall that, but even that doesn't match how you approach Obama. With Obama you go full hyperbolic mode.
    Well of course you don't recall that...How convenient for your insulting line of thinking.

    Nonsense. You merely making excuses. Such distinctions were never really made when republicans were in charge, and there was no difference then. None.
    Shall we hold you to every line of thinking, or every utterance you've ever had? What a closed minded way of thinking you are displaying here Joe....

    The numbers are no more funny than they've ever been. You and others only see it when you want to. That's my point. Either address or don't. But I am correct about that.
    What an arrogant pile of crap you have here Joe. You must really think yourself something to behold don't you? Whether or not the calculations for determining the UE rates have been skewed in the past I suspect they have, and politically motivated as well on both sides of the isle, but that doesn't make it right. Two wrongs don't make a right.
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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    What specifically are you claiming makes them phony, and are you claiming they're only phony under Obama or that they've always been phony?
    Well, I am saying that over time both parties have used them to their advantage, especially during elections. As to specifics, when you want to look at something to empirically determine if there is a definitive number, or percentage you can measure, and track, I would think that something like people that have dropped out of the UE rolls, and given up ARE part of the total UE picture.

    Would they not take a job if they thought one available? So to do things like not count them doesn't make them any less unemployed does it?

    Who's telling you not to question them? The problem is that most of the "questions" I've heard reveal a complete ignorance of the actual methodology and/or purpose of the numbers.
    Ah, so if people don't think exactly as you do in relation to UE numbers they are "ignorant"? That's nice. As for purpose, what is that in your mind?

    For example, the UE rate is not a measurement of poverty or poor circumstances...
    True, we have a measurement for poverty. Although as that relates to appropriations could be studied as well.

    a multi-millionaire can be unemployed and is counted just the same as anyone else.
    UE is not a measure of wealth, and shouldn't be....But this part of your statement possibly reveals much about your thinking on the matter in general.
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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Well, I am saying that over time both parties have used them to their advantage, especially during elections.
    If you're talking actual manipulation and changing, then no. Never happened, though Nixon wanted to. It's practically impossible to do so.

    Example: For the April numbers, data collection by the Census Bureau was the week of March 17-23. So the BLS employees had 9 working days to compile, aggregate, seasonally adjust, write the dozens of tables and submit the report to publications on April 4th. That's when the Commissioner approved it and it went to the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (the only person outside BLS authorized a pre-release copy of the report) and he could tell the results to the President.

    By that point, it's too late to make any changes and far too complicated. Any one change will affect multiple other series. Add on that Census has access to the raw data, and BEA has some access as well, and academic researchers are given access (under standard confidentiality agreements) and the state and local area data comes from a joint Federal/State program. And there's Congressional oversight. It would take a large conspiracy and a lot of law breaking to manipulate the data, and given the short time frame, it would be almost impossible to do so. And no one has ever come forward to claim any such manipulation.

    As to specifics, when you want to look at something to empirically determine if there is a definitive number, or percentage you can measure, and track, I would think that something like people that have dropped out of the UE rolls, and given up ARE part of the total UE picture.
    Yes and no. First, there are no "UE rolls" used in the UE rate..it's all from a survey. As for given up...that's out of scope of what the main UE rate is meant to measure. It's meant to measure how much available labor was not used in a given month. Someone not trying to get a job is not available to be hired, so has no proper place in that measurement.

    Analogy: Say you're a seller of fine chocolate at a Farmer's Market. You sell out and you want to know how much you could have sold that day. You would count everyone who showed up at your stall to try and buy, you should count people who asked other sellers or their family/friends if you had any available and were told no. But would you count people who didn't go to the market or try to find out if you had any available that day? Regardless of how much chocolate you had, you wouldn't have sold any to those people.

    Same thing with the labor market...if someone is no longer looking for work, they will not get a job no matter how many jobs are available, and so are not a good indicator of how many people could have been hired but weren't.

    The discouraged and marginally attached are tracked as people who are likely to start looking again...going back to the analogy, these would be people who were previous customers and those who had previously expressed interest and might come back in the future. Good to know for future plans, but you still can't count them as people who were unable to buy on the specific day in question because they didn't make any attempt to, so would have bought any even if you had had enough.

    Would they not take a job if they thought one available?
    Sure, but how would they know if a job is available or not if they're not looking? And notice the question is what they think not the reality.
    So to do things like not count them doesn't make them any less unemployed does it?
    It makes them not available to be hired in the specific month.

    Ah, so if people don't think exactly as you do in relation to UE numbers they are "ignorant"?
    Huh? It has nothing to do with what I think. If people say the UE rate is off because it doesn't count people no longer receiving benefits, then that's ignorance of the methodology: benefits or no benefits have never ever been a part of the calculations. If people think changing the data is as simple as the President calling BLS and saying "I want the rate to be 6.4%" then that's ignorance; if people think there's a list of everyone in the country and names can arbitrarily be moved into different categories; if people think that the rate is derived by any other means that what actually happens...that's all ignorance. Nothing to do with opinion or my thoughts. And the majority of complaints I've heard show that the person doesn't actually understand how the rate is derived, what the definitions are or why.


    UE is not a measure of wealth, and shouldn't be....But this part of your statement possibly reveals much about your thinking on the matter in general.
    Not really. Some of the complaints I've heard are that those not classified as unemployed should be because they or their family are suffering. This implies that the person thinks unemployment is some kind of measurement of suffering, so I offered the example of a millionaire to show that suffering or not suffering or any socio-economic status has nothing to do with classifying as unemployed or not. I can see how that wasn't clear.
    Last edited by pinqy; 05-07-13 at 10:01 AM.
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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by pinqy View Post
    If you're talking actual manipulation and changing, then no. Never happened, though Nixon wanted to. It's practically impossible to do so.

    Example: For the April numbers, data collection by the Census Bureau was the week of March 17-23. So the BLS employees had 9 working days to compile, aggregate, seasonally adjust, write the dozens of tables and submit the report to publications on April 4th. That's when the Commissioner approved it and it went to the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (the only person outside BLS authorized a pre-release copy of the report) and he could tell the results to the President.

    By that point, it's too late to make any changes and far too complicated. Any one change will affect multiple other series. Add on that Census has access to the raw data, and BEA has some access as well, and academic researchers are given access (under standard confidentiality agreements) and the state and local area data comes from a joint Federal/State program. And there's Congressional oversight. It would take a large conspiracy and a lot of law breaking to manipulate the data, and given the short time frame, it would be almost impossible to do so. And no one has ever come forward to claim any such manipulation.

    Yes and no. First, there are no "UE rolls" used in the UE rate..it's all from a survey. As for given up...that's out of scope of what the main UE rate is meant to measure. It's meant to measure how much available labor was not used in a given month. Someone not trying to get a job is not available to be hired, so has no proper place in that measurement.

    Analogy: Say you're a seller of fine chocolate at a Farmer's Market. You sell out and you want to know how much you could have sold that day. You would count everyone who showed up at your stall to try and buy, you should count people who asked other sellers or their family/friends if you had any available and were told no. But would you count people who didn't go to the market or try to find out if you had any available that day? Regardless of how much chocolate you had, you wouldn't have sold any to those people.

    Same thing with the labor market...if someone is no longer looking for work, they will not get a job no matter how many jobs are available, and so are not a good indicator of how many people could have been hired but weren't.

    The discouraged and marginally attached are tracked as people who are likely to start looking again...going back to the analogy, these would be people who were previous customers and those who had previously expressed interest and might come back in the future. Good to know for future plans, but you still can't count them as people who were unable to buy on the specific day in question because they didn't make any attempt to, so would have bought any even if you had had enough.

    Sure, but how would they know if a job is available or not if they're not looking? And notice the question is what they think not the reality. It makes them not available to be hired in the specific month.

    Huh? It has nothing to do with what I think. If people say the UE rate is off because it doesn't count people no longer receiving benefits, then that's ignorance of the methodology: benefits or no benefits have never ever been a part of the calculations. If people think changing the data is as simple as the President calling BLS and saying "I want the rate to be 6.4%" then that's ignorance; if people think there's a list of everyone in the country and names can arbitrarily be moved into different categories; if people think that the rate is derived by any other means that what actually happens...that's all ignorance. Nothing to do with opinion or my thoughts. And the majority of complaints I've heard show that the person doesn't actually understand how the rate is derived, what the definitions are or why.


    Not really. Some of the complaints I've heard are that those not classified as unemployed should be because they or their family are suffering. This implies that the person thinks unemployment is some kind of measurement of suffering, so I offered the example of a millionaire to show that suffering or not suffering or any socio-economic status has nothing to do with classifying as unemployed or not. I can see how that wasn't clear.
    Well, I have to apologize because some of that is over my head, but as an average workin' stiff, digging into statistics, (which we all know can be, and are manipulated) are not how average people look at this economy. There are what I like to call "gut measures"....

    How many people do they know that are either unemployed, or underemployed?
    What does the business landscape look like? (shops closed, strip malls shuttered, etc.)
    What are the big employment drivers in the community doing, are factories hiring?

    I can only tell you what I see as a truck driver that travels into different areas of the country, and that is I look around and see a lot of closed business.

    What you said about manipulation of the numbers being illegal, I agree with, but since the system seems to be set up for not only election purposes, but in appropriations processes that benefit reps, there is little chance that the corruption seen on both sides of the isle in this matter will be solved any time soon.

    The only thing I can tell you is that I haven't seen this type of misery out there in the jobs market since the late 70s.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Well, I have to apologize because some of that is over my head, but as an average workin' stiff, digging into statistics, (which we all know can be, and are manipulated) are not how average people look at this economy. There are what I like to call "gut measures"....

    How many people do they know that are either unemployed, or underemployed?
    What does the business landscape look like? (shops closed, strip malls shuttered, etc.)
    What are the big employment drivers in the community doing, are factories hiring?

    I can only tell you what I see as a truck driver that travels into different areas of the country, and that is I look around and see a lot of closed business.

    What you said about manipulation of the numbers being illegal, I agree with, but since the system seems to be set up for not only election purposes, but in appropriations processes that benefit reps, there is little chance that the corruption seen on both sides of the isle in this matter will be solved any time soon.

    The only thing I can tell you is that I haven't seen this type of misery out there in the jobs market since the late 70s.
    Regardless of your own personal viewpoint, consumer confidence, while still low, it at the highest it's been January, 2008. 2 of the 3 indexes of the stock market are at the highest they've ever been. GDP is at the highest it's ever been. The worst nightmare imaginable for the right is coming true -- the economy is getting better under President Obama.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Regardless of your own personal viewpoint, consumer confidence, while still low, it at the highest it's been January, 2008. 2 of the 3 indexes of the stock market are at the highest they've ever been. GDP is at the highest it's ever been. The worst nightmare imaginable for the right is coming true -- the economy is getting better under President Obama.
    Nah, you ought to stop with the hyperbolic nonsense....It is true enough that I don't like the current President, his policies, or his lies to the American people. That has nothing to do with whether or not I'd like to see our economy get better. Your knee jerk, and programmed response that I somehow want the economy to tank simply because I don't like who is President is foolish, and a meme fed you by hyper partisan leftists and you just ate it up.
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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Nah, you ought to stop with the hyperbolic nonsense....It is true enough that I don't like the current President, his policies, or his lies to the American people. That has nothing to do with whether or not I'd like to see our economy get better. Your knee jerk, and programmed response that I somehow want the economy to tank simply because I don't like who is President is foolish, and a meme fed you by hyper partisan leftists and you just ate it up.
    Regardless, what is actually occurring doesn't seem to mesh with what you claim to see happening.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Regardless, what is actually occurring doesn't seem to mesh with what you claim to see happening.
    No, you just won't open your eyes. People quitting job hunting does not tranlate to a drop in umemployment. Far fewer people are working, period.

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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Regardless, what is actually occurring doesn't seem to mesh with what you claim to see happening.
    Ah, so now it is "regardless" eh? Or, don't believe my lyin' eyes right? Nah, you came at me trying to push lousy talking point crap, that is clearly dismissed by any rational, critical thinking person seeing real world conditions with their own eyes...You need a new bag before you try to pee on my leg and tell me it's raining.
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    Re: U.S. unemployment falls to 7.5% in April [W: 348, 360]

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    No, you just won't open your eyes. People quitting job hunting does not tranlate to a drop in umemployment. Far fewer people are working, period.
    The numbers say otherwise ...

    Employment
    Jan/2009: 142,153,000
    Apr/2013: 143,579,000

    According to BLS, there are 1,426,000 more people working today than there were when Obama became president.


    Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

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