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Thread: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%[W: 831]

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Yeah, the baby boomers don't quite account for the dip in the LFPR, as the participation rate for those 55 and older has been trending upwards for two decades now. The 16-24 age bracket accounts for nearly the entire discrepancy (as others mentioned, demand for college education would be one of the causing factors).

    Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by OpportunityCost View Post
    So your thought is that people are retiring from the workforce and those jobs are not being replaced and thats somehow an explanation for the declining participation rate? That would be alarming news, it means the waves of baby boomers retiring will not open up positions for the rest of the workforce.
    Certainly some of it, but not all of it. Read the article I posted.


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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by OpportunityCost View Post
    [url=http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=USALFPRNA]
    The graph did not allow for later data. ARRA didnt change the particpation rate by much, if at all.
    Agreed. Although keep in mind I was discussing raw employment, which would be more directly affected by a short term stimulative measure than would the participation rate.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    My logic for voting for Bush is sound, the choice was Gore and Kerry and the results in 2004 warranted four more years, results you want to ignore.
    Which result was it that warranted 4 more years for Bush Jr. leading into the 2004 election?

    Was it GDP for the president's 1st 15 quarters in office?

    JFK/LBJ ............ 41.3%
    Nixon ............... 33.3%
    Eisenhower ....... 15.7%
    Clinton ............. 12.7%
    Reagan ............. 12.6%
    Carter ............... 11.3%
    Bush ................. 8.5%
    GHW Bush .......... 7.7%

    Or was it unemployment?

    Clinton ............... -29%
    JFK/LBJ .............. -22%
    Reagan ............... +1%
    Carter ................... 0%
    Bush ................ +31%
    Eisenhower ........ +34%
    GHW Bush ......... +35%
    Nixon ................ +62%

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Yeah, the baby boomers don't quite account for the dip in the LFPR, as the participation rate for those 55 and older has been trending upwards for two decades now. The 16-24 age bracket accounts for nearly the entire discrepancy (as others mentioned, demand for college education would be one of the causing factors).

    Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity
    There is no question that retiring baby boomers are driving the LFPR down. People are hitting retirement age these days at the rate of about 10,000 per day. How much it's driving it down is difficult to say since the BLS doesn't report on that statistic.

    But there is also another classification of people who are driving down the LFPR which most are overlooking -- people on disability, which has increased signifiicantly since the onset of the recession.



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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by a351 View Post
    Says who? How about Moody's? Goldman? If you wish to prop up an opinion piece that contains no actual econometric analysis over the consensus of these sources, by all means..

    It's an estimation, and an informed one at that.

    GDP and employment trends directly following its implementation for starters.
    If you pump 842 billion dollars into the economy you increase one of the components of GDP and the total will grow. It will be short term which it was and last quarter it was .4%. Please learn the components of GDP and you will understand why it went up and further if you are paying any attention at all you will understand why it is so low now. Obama is the worst President this country has ever seen and history will bare that out.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    Which result was it that warranted 4 more years for Bush Jr. leading into the 2004 election?

    Was it GDP for the president's 1st 15 quarters in office?

    JFK/LBJ ............ 41.3%
    Nixon ............... 33.3%
    Eisenhower ....... 15.7%
    Clinton ............. 12.7%
    Reagan ............. 12.6%
    Carter ............... 11.3%
    Bush ................. 8.5%
    GHW Bush .......... 7.7%

    Or was it unemployment?

    Clinton ............... -29%
    JFK/LBJ .............. -22%
    Reagan ............... +1%
    Carter ................... 0%
    Bush ................ +31%
    Eisenhower ........ +34%
    GHW Bush ......... +35%
    Nixon ................ +62%
    Still believe a 50 increase from 100 to 150 is better than a 20% increase from 1000 to 1250? You never have been good with numbers. I will take the growth of 4.4 trillion in GDP over 8 years any day even though a lower percentage than the results of Obama. Interesting the Bush is responsible for the results in 2001 but Obama isn't for 2009. Of course Reagan, Bush, and Obama all inherited recessions because you cannot name the economic poiicies either Bush or Reagan had in place when they took office. Obama had no plan in place either . You simply are a partisan who simply wants to believe that all the compassionate rhetoric will lead to compassionate results but they haven't.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    If you pump 842 billion dollars into the economy you increase one of the components of GDP and the total will grow. It will be short term which it was and last quarter it was .4%. Please learn the components of GDP and you will understand why it went up and further if you are paying any attention at all you will understand why it is so low now. Obama is the worst President this country has ever seen and history will bare that out.
    Yeah, just like the election YOU said he would lose.


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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    There is no question that retiring baby boomers are driving the LFPR down. People are hitting retirement age these days at the rate of about 10,000 per day.

    How much it's driving it down is difficult to say since the BLS doesn't report on that statistic.

    But there is also another classification of people who are driving down the LFPR which most are overlooking -- people on disability, which has increased signifiicantly since the onset of the recession.


    It would stand to reason, but it's a trend that hasn't manifested itself in the actual data yet. As stated before, the 16-24 bracket accounts for the downward trend over the last decade.

    They report on both the LFPR as a whole and the age brackets within: Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity

    Agreed.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Yeah, just like the election YOU said he would lose.
    There certainly were more Obamabots than I realized but when Presidents are judged Obamabots don't vote

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