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Thread: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%[W: 831]

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    Did you read your own article? It's one guy's spin.



    Youth unemployment is at 16%

    Black youth unemployment is near 50%

    We're not running out of workers

    Anyways, don't let reality get in the way of your narrative.
    Now that is really early retirement on the part of so many. Sad isn't it that liberals cannot admit when wrong and their ideology and economic policies are failures.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Many folks are loyal to California like they are to New York City....they'll put up with incredibly high taxes, begrudgingly, in order to live in their favorite environment. They've been paying outrageous amounts for property and regulations for years as well.

    Simply question: If you owned a business, would you rather pay high taxes or low taxes? If your business was struggling through a recession, would you find a tax cut a welcome relief that could put much needed money back into your business? If you were considering shutting your doors or were on the verge of laying employees off, could the tax relief be an incentive to not do that?


    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    You're missing my point. My point is that one cannot empirically attribute the changes to the tax cuts. Cost structure evidence argues that the tax changes likely had a modest impact, but it's premature to try to be more certain.

    In other words, early attribution that gives credit to the tax changes can be far off the mark. For example, compare the contrasting fortunes of California and New Jersey with respect to the unemployment rate.

    California:
    February 2011 12.2%
    February 2012 10.9%
    February 2013 9.6%

    New Jersey:
    February 2011 9.2%
    February 2012 9.0%
    February 2013 9.3%

    The above figures are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    California, which adopted substantial tax increases has experienced a large drop in the unemployment rate. New Jersey, with its aggressive tax relief, has had little change in its unemployment rate. The argument that tax hikes drove California's unemployment rate down would, as has been the case with the argument concerning Michigan's tax relief, almost certainly have been an early attribution of a trend to coincidence in timing, not a proper representation of cause and effect.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by JC Callender View Post
    Many folks are loyal to California like they are to New York City....they'll put up with incredibly high taxes, begrudgingly, in order to live in their favorite environment. They've been paying outrageous amounts for property and regulations for years as well.

    Simply question: If you owned a business, would you rather pay high taxes or low taxes? If your business was struggling through a recession, would you find a tax cut a welcome relief that could put much needed money back into your business? If you were considering shutting your doors or were on the verge of laying employees off, could the tax relief be an incentive to not do that?
    Of course I'd prefer to pay lower taxes. My point overall is that one can't automatically attribute a reduction in unemployment to tax relief. Tax relief probably gave a modest boost but larger sector-specific factors are involved (the state's economy was well-positioned to take advantage of the auto/manufacturing recovery). Business climate depends on many factors, only some of which are policy-related. That's why one sees, for example, big job growth in Michigan (tax cuts took place) and in California (big tax hikes took place) and little change in New Jersey (aggressive tax relief was provided). Moreover, the business climate is not homogeneous. Industry clusters can make the environment particularly favorable for certain activities i.e. creative activities in CA (entertainment-technology convergence), etc.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post

    In five years the population would have increased.
    I don't disagree. Tax base, depending on how it is defined, can change due to numerous factors including population, productivity changes, innovation, valuations, etc.

    There is also the argument that tax changes impact economic behavior. However, aside from pointing out that cuts from very high rate e.g., 90% to 60% have a greater marginal impact than those from low rates, say 30% to 20%, and that such a marginal impact diminishes as one makes cuts from lower rates, such changes are not very well measured. The same applies broadly to general efforts to forecast highly complex behavioral-related phenomena, including economics (the recent large miss by the consensus forecast on the level of job creation for March is one example).
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 04-06-13 at 09:41 AM.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Okay, if the auto industry is a large part of Michigan's recovery, why is Detroit (the Motor City) going bankrupt?


    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Of course I'd prefer to pay lower taxes. My point overall is that one can't automatically attribute a reduction in unemployment to tax relief. Tax relief probably gave a modest boost but larger sector-specific factors are involved (the state's economy was well-positioned to take advantage of the auto/manufacturing recovery). Business climate depends on many factors, only some of which are policy-related. That's why one sees, for example, big job growth in Michigan (tax cuts took place) and in California (big tax hikes took place) and little change in New Jersey (aggressive tax relief was provided). Moreover, the business climate is not homogeneous. Industry clusters can make the environment particularly favorable for certain activities i.e. creative activities in CA (entertainment-technology convergence), etc.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by mtm1963 View Post
    the participation rate drop has nothing to do with the sequester.
    Unemployment does, as does a lack of jobs. And the sequester effects those things. So, the sequester does have an effect.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by JC Callender View Post
    Okay, if the auto industry is a large part of Michigan's recovery, why is Detroit (the Motor City) going bankrupt?
    Detroit has suffered from a 25% population drop over the past decade (http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/23/us/23detroit.html), a lack of diversified economic base, bad public policy, etc. The last element is part of the reason I believe that the State's emergency measures should also have included removing all of Detroit's elected officials. They have been part of the problem and they could well undermine the turnaround effort.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Bronson View Post
    Did you read your own article? It's one guy's spin.
    Youth unemployment is at 16%
    Black youth unemployment is near 50%
    We're not running out of workers
    Anyways, don't let reality get in the way of your narrative.
    http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econr...andweghe.pdf--
    "The steady decline of the LFPR since its peak at the turn of the
    century is also related largely to demographic factors. The primary factor behind this decline is the rising share of older workers in the population as the baby-boom generation ages and life expediencies increase.
    The rising share of older workers pulls down the LFPR because older
    workers have lower participation rates than prime-age workers. A second factor behind the gradual decline of the LFPR has been a steady reduction in labor force participation among young people over the
    last decade, resulting in large part from rising school enrollment"
    Men do what they have to when they want to, Great men do what they have to, even when they don't want to.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I don't disagree. Tax base, depending on how it is defined, can change due to numerous factors including population, productivity changes, innovation, valuations, etc.

    There is also the argument that tax changes impact economic behavior. However, aside from pointing out that cuts from very high rate e.g., 90% to 60% have a greater marginal impact than those from low rates, say 30% to 20%, and that such a marginal impact diminishes as one makes cuts from lower rates, such changes are not very well measured. The same applies broadly to general efforts to forecast highly complex behavioral-related phenomena, including economics (the recent large miss by the consensus forecast on the level of job creation for March is one example).
    Thanks, for your response. I am a little embarrassed though, I inadvertently added an emoticon on my tiny hand held device for which I apologize.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Unemployment does, as does a lack of jobs. And the sequester effects those things. So, the sequester does have an effect.
    it's only been 35 days since the sequester. hardly enough time for it to actually have an affect over a very short period of time.

    i suspect you buy into the dire consequences of the sequester BS. i don't of course

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