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Thread: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%[W: 831]

  1. #1221
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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Then let's stick to the topic, 500,000 people dropped out of the labor force last month, 100,000 the month before. There are 143 million employed Americans today out of a labor force of 155 million that has increased only 1.1 million in four years. That says a lot about the incentive Obama has created not to work or even seek employment.
    RealClearMarkets - Misunderstanding Declines In Labor Force Participation

    This past Friday, like the first Friday of every month, saw the release of the latest jobs numbers. Within minutes of the release, analysts left, right, and center began pointing nervously at August's decline in labor force participation-the fraction of adults who are working or looking for a job. Several hundred thousand Americans became demoralized and gave up looking for work, said the left. Labor force dropout concealed an unemployment rate exceeding 11% at the close of Obama's first term, said the right. Labor force participation was at its lowest since 1981, and "at an all-time low" among men.


    Hold the phone. The labor force participation rate can decline for reasons that should concern us, as when increasing numbers of the unemployed give up looking because of a terrible labor market. That is what most observers have in mind when they see labor force participation falling. But it can also decline for reasons that are either benign or that should cheer us. For instance, as we have grown richer over time, the duration of our working years has shrunk. The typical worker retired at 70 sixty years ago; today he retires at 63. That's a decline in labor force participation.


    In fact, the small August drop in labor force participation-which at any rate is not statistically reliable and may be overturned when the final numbers come in next month-almost surely did not reflect rising discouragement among job-seekers. This is readily seen by comparing the so-called "U4" jobless rate-which combines the unemployed and "discouraged workers"-to the official "U3" unemployment rate. Both fell by 0.2 percentage points between July and August. If the fall in labor force participation had been about hopelessly unemployed people, the change in the U4 rate would have looked worse than the U3 change.





    To gain some perspective, let's step back and look at the long-term trends in labor force participation among men. That's where the declines are. Start with teens and young adults. After rising over the course of the 1970s, the labor force participation of men between the ages of 16 and 24 has declined markedly since 1979. The 2011 rate was the lowest since data became available in 1948.


    Terrible news? No, what the data show is an impressive rise in school enrollment among teens and young adults. The decline in labor force participation among young men was from 75% in 1979 to just 57% in 2011. That 18-point drop is mirrored in data from the Department of Education showing that male school enrollment rates rose between 1980 and 2010. Enrollment rose by 20 points for 18- to 19-year-olds, and by 16 points for 20- to 22-year-olds. It also rose by 8 points among 16- to 17-year-olds and by 9 points among 22- to 24-year-olds. Averaging the rates across the four (roughly) equally-sized groups indicates that the school enrollment rate rose 13 points from 1980 to 2010, from 47% to 60 percent. There are, of course, many young men who simultaneously work and attend school, but the fraction of 18- to 24-year-old college enrollees (of either gender) who attended part-time was 20% in 1980 and 20% in 2010.

    Continue Reading



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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fruityfact View Post
    Where is the proof for the bolded? How do you know it's not attributed boom retiring or the increase of the prominence of college-both of which are true
    Where did I type that it is not (partially) to do with boomers retiring?

    The answer is - I did not.

    But even that incredibly useless organization - The Fed - says:

    'V. CONCLUSION

    The sharp decline of the LFPR since the onset of the recent recession is due to long-term shifts related to demographic trends and to the
    cyclical downturn in the labor market. A variety of evidence indicates
    that, on balance, trend factors account for about half of the decline in
    labor force participation from 2007 to 2011, with cyclical factors accounting for the other half.'

    http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econr...nZandweghe.pdf

    So even the pathetically ignorant (imo) Fed says that - in essence - at LEAST 1/2 have basically given up because it sucks out there.

    That still leaves the U-3 rate at over 9% (last time I checked).

    And that does not take into account all the boomers that have prematurely retired because they cannot find work.

    No matter how you slice it - even according to the Fed - unemployment is FAR worse then when Obama took over (not that GWB was doing much good either).


    Or do you have links to unbiased, stats/facts to the contrary?

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    As I stated before - this is important.

    People are being swayed into thinking the unemployment situation is improving because the U-3 rate is dropping.

    But it is incredibly deceptive as the ONLY reason it is dropping is because people are leaving the work force because they have either given up, prematurely retired or no longer count in U-3 statistics.

    All the gov't./Fed have done is force people to leave the work force.

    Take the participation rate from the day Obama took over and the U-3 rate is over 10%.

    Whatever the government/Fed are doing is just making the situation worse and they are masking it with skewed statistics (like the skewed CPI numbers).
    That's a rather bogus argument as it assumes that 100% of those who fell out of the workforce were driven out of it and that argument is completely ridiculous.

    We know there are many who died. Many more who chose to retire. Many who opted to go onto disability. Many who picked school over work.

    Thre are many reasons that people are no longer in the workforce. You cannot sophistically cast all 6 million of them into the same bucket for why they dropped out of the workforce.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Fruityfact View Post
    Where is the proof for the bolded? How do you know it's not attributed boom retiring or the increase of the prominence of college-both of which are true
    I keep hearing this. So, where are the jobs the retirees are leaving behind? Where are the jobs the college attendees are not filling? Those jobs dont seem to be around. The theory does not fit the facts.

    What appears to be happening is retirees are leaving the workforce and their jobs are being dissolved or jobbed out to the existing workforce. Even entry level jobs which college attendees would be looking for if they werent in college are scarce.

    What does fit the facts is retiree jobs not resulting in good paying jobs upon retirement and participation is simply dropping. Along with discouraged workers slowly become what is termed unemployable, especially in a highly competitive job market. Or they just give up altogether.

    Neither of the previous two above circumstances are good signs for the economy.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post
    No, total loss, as in values of homes, retirement accounts, etc....



    In one hand you want to blame Obama for employment numbers. On the other hand, you wish to absolve Bush II for the great loss of net wealth since the Great Depression. I am not blaming Bush for anything, i was simply stating a fact.



    If i bought a home with an interest rate of 8.6% 30 years fixed in 1977, the fact that interest rates went to 17.6% in 1982 would not have impacted me. However, the fact that my net worth decreased by 30% in a matter of months did!!! Notice how net wealth did not decline at all during the Reagan recession.
    Excellent points. Unfortunately, all lost on that one.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    The decline in labor force participation among young men was from 75% in 1979 to just 57% in 2011. That 18-point drop is mirrored in data from the Department of Education showing that male school enrollment rates rose between 1980 and 2010. Enrollment rose by 20 points for 18- to 19-year-olds, and by 16 points for 20- to 22-year-olds. It also rose by 8 points among 16- to 17-year-olds and by 9 points among 22- to 24-year-olds. Averaging the rates across the four (roughly) equally-sized groups indicates that the school enrollment rate rose 13 points from 1980 to 2010, from 47% to 60 percent. There are, of course, many young men who simultaneously work and attend school, but the fraction of 18- to 24-year-old college enrollees (of either gender) who attended part-time was 20% in 1980 and 20% in 2010.

    Continue Reading
    Now where is your link to stats/facts that proves that the vast majority of those students did not go to college because they could not find work in the private sector? And that if they could have they would not have gone to college?


    Of course school enrollment is up.

    Unemployment is way up, the economy is stagnant and it has never been easier(?) to rack up massive student loans.

    When the economy sucks - seniors retire prematurely and young adults go to college.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by Sheik Yerbuti View Post
    That's a rather bogus argument as it assumes that 100% of those who fell out of the workforce were driven out of it and that argument is completely ridiculous.

    We know there are many who died. Many more who chose to retire. Many who opted to go onto disability. Many who picked school over work.

    Thre are many reasons that people are no longer in the workforce. You cannot sophistically cast all 6 million of them into the same bucket for why they dropped out of the workforce.
    If you check my post right above yours - you will see that even the pathetic Fed admits that at least half have left the work force due to 'cyclical downturn in the labor market' (i.e. the economy stinks).

    That still leaves the U-3 rate at over 9% (last time I checked).

    And that does not take into account all the boomers that have prematurely retired because they cannot find work.

    No matter how you slice it - even according to the Fed - unemployment is FAR worse then when Obama took over (not that GWB was doing much good either).


    Have a nice day.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    Now where is your link to stats/facts that proves that the vast majority of those students did not go to college because they could not find work in the private sector? And that if they could have they would not have gone to college?


    Of course school enrollment is up.

    Unemployment is way up, the economy is stagnant and it has never been easier(?) to rack up massive student loans.

    When the economy sucks - seniors retire prematurely and young adults go to college.
    You're forgetting that it's the public sector which is sucking. The private sector is hiring like mad, adding 6 million jobs over the last 37 consecutive months. So if people aren't working at this point, it's because by and large, they either choose not to or they were working in the public sector.

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    That still leaves the U-3 rate at over 9% (last time I checked).
    Link/source?
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Adds Only 88,000 Jobs; Jobless Rate Falls to 7.6%

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    If you check my post right above yours - you will see that even the pathetic Fed admits that at least half have left the work force due to 'cyclical downturn in the labor market' (i.e. the economy stinks).

    That still leaves the U-3 rate at over 9% (last time I checked).

    And that does not take into account all the boomers that have prematurely retired because they cannot find work.

    No matter how you slice it - even according to the Fed - unemployment is FAR worse then when Obama took over (not that GWB was doing much good either).


    Have a nice day.
    4+ years into Obama's failed Presidency

    90 million Americans not working

    50 million on Food Stamps

    GDP Growth .4%

    All they can do is blame Bush. It's a joke.

    Democrats were mostly responsible for the financial crisis anyways by downplaying any potential problems that were predicted with the Housing Market and blocking GSE reform. With 41 votes they prevented any bill from getting an up or down vote.

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