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Thread: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

  1. #31
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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    I have been closer to the DPRK than just about anyone here. I didn't enter the country, but I saw and heard enough even back in 1999 that caused me concern for the people of the country. Rather than retell it here, I will link the YouTube video. (if this breaks any rules, mods just delete and give me a warning - thanks)

    My personal experience in a border city across from the DPRK
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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    This whole threat nonsense coming out of NK is just that (imo)...nonsense.

    I give anyone 100:1 odds that NK does not attack within 6 months (I want my money sometime).

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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    This whole threat nonsense coming out of NK is just that (imo)...nonsense.

    I give anyone 100:1 odds that NK does not attack within 6 months (I want my money sometime).
    I agree with you that it is highly unlikely, but we can't ignore it either.

    There is a real possibility that Kim is in a tight corner. The military might really want this. If he backs down, he may be risking being overthrown. He may regard a limited confrontation as the best way out. It isn't like the DPRK hasn't done provocative actions in the past. It might be the only way for him to get out of this with his leadership in tact while not starting another war on the peninsula that would run the risk of starting World War II as the four most powerful states in the world are all right there.
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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    Quote Originally Posted by ludahai View Post
    I agree with you that it is highly unlikely, but we can't ignore it either.

    There is a real possibility that Kim is in a tight corner. The military might really want this. If he backs down, he may be risking being overthrown. He may regard a limited confrontation as the best way out. It isn't like the DPRK hasn't done provocative actions in the past. It might be the only way for him to get out of this with his leadership in tact while not starting another war on the peninsula that would run the risk of starting World War II as the four most powerful states in the world are all right there.
    But I believe that to pay attention to him is EXACTLY what he wants and why he is doing this.

    I say tell him that if he attacks - he will be met with full force and blah blah blah (all the military threat stuff)...and that is it.


    Other then in nukes (and America has agreed to attack the north with nukes if they attack the south with nukes), the north is completely outclassed by the south.

    The North is stuck with 1960's/70's weaponry - since they have been broke for decades.

    The South - having a very advanced economy - has a completely up-to-date armed forces...in all areas (outside of nukes).

    The North knows this and would not dare attack.

    And the only reason the NK people put up with the hardships is to support the military.

    If the latter is shown to be useless - which it would in a war with the South - that support would undoubtedly fall away and Kim would be overthrown.

    I guarantee you he does not want that.


    No, imo, there is near zero chance that the North would start a war.

    They have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose.

    But just threatening to start a war might get them something.

    Why not - it has more-or-less worked in the past.

  5. #35
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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    Quote Originally Posted by DA60 View Post
    But I believe that to pay attention to him is EXACTLY what he wants and why he is doing this.

    I say tell him that if he attacks - he will be met with full force and blah blah blah (all the military threat stuff)...and that is it.
    Pay attention, stern warnings, and no more aid (the problem is that in the past, the US and the ROK has rewarded this behavior with aid)


    Other then in nukes (and America has agreed to attack the north with nukes if they attack the south with nukes), the north is completely outclassed by the south.

    The North is stuck with 1960's/70's weaponry - since they have been broke for decades.
    True. But, they could still destroy Seoul and there isn't much we could do about. They can't sustain a war much beyond an initial thrust unless they get aid from the Chinese.

    The South - having a very advanced economy - has a completely up-to-date armed forces...in all areas (outside of nukes).
    Agreed, though they don't have the numbers that the DPRK has and can't stop the DPRK from destroying Seoul.

    The North knows this and would not dare attack.
    I would tend to agree with this, which is why I think a limited attack like sinking a South Korean ship or shelling a disputed island is more likely.

    And the only reason the NK people put up with the hardships is to support the military.
    Actually, it is because they don't know anything else. They have been brainwashed for decades.

    If the latter is shown to be useless - which it would in a war with the South - that support would undoubtedly fall away and Kim would be overthrown.
    He won't have to be overthrown. No Mussolini here. The USA would destroy him and the leadership in P'yongyang before it came to that.

    I guarantee you he does not want that.
    Of course he doesn't.


    No, imo, there is near zero chance that the North would start a war.
    Near zero chance he starts a large war, but a much greater chance he stages a limited engagement as mentioned above. Of course, that carries the risk, however small, of a mistake being made leading to escalation.

    They have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose.
    True. This holds assuming Kim and their military are rational actors.

    But just threatening to start a war might get them something.
    It has in the past. They are hoping it will again. Hopefully Obama and Park will not give it this time.

    Why not - it has more-or-less worked in the past.
    Agreed.
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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    North Korea may see a limited engagement as a solution to it's population problem.
    They are starving, too many mouths to feed.
    In the past the US has been very kind with the countries they have defeated.
    It worries me that Kim may believe his own press.

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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    Quote Originally Posted by Unitedwestand13 View Post
    Well the people of North Korea did not have a choice in the matter.
    They have a choice. But they are rightly scared of opposing tyranny.

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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    Quote Originally Posted by ludahai View Post
    Pay attention, stern warnings, and no more aid (the problem is that in the past, the US and the ROK has rewarded this behavior with aid)




    True. But, they could still destroy Seoul and there isn't much we could do about. They can't sustain a war much beyond an initial thrust unless they get aid from the Chinese.



    Agreed, though they don't have the numbers that the DPRK has and can't stop the DPRK from destroying Seoul.



    I would tend to agree with this, which is why I think a limited attack like sinking a South Korean ship or shelling a disputed island is more likely.



    Actually, it is because they don't know anything else. They have been brainwashed for decades.



    He won't have to be overthrown. No Mussolini here. The USA would destroy him and the leadership in P'yongyang before it came to that.



    Of course he doesn't.




    Near zero chance he starts a large war, but a much greater chance he stages a limited engagement as mentioned above. Of course, that carries the risk, however small, of a mistake being made leading to escalation.



    True. This holds assuming Kim and their military are rational actors.



    It has in the past. They are hoping it will again. Hopefully Obama and Park will not give it this time.



    Agreed.
    Seems Gordan Chang would agree with you. He also thinks as soon as festivities simmer down. That N Korea will make an Attack upon S Korea. Like they did with the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of those Islands.

    The Failure of Deterrence in Korea.....



    In a poll released last month by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 66 percent of South Koreans said they wanted their country to develop nuclear weapons to ward off attacks from North Korea. In fact, only 48 percent of the population last year believed America would use nukes to retaliate against a North Korean nuclear strike against them, down 7 percent from 2011.

    The survey by the private think tank in Seoul is a clear vote of “no confidence” in the US, which has, by treaty, since 1953, pledged to defend the South, with nukes if necessary. If the South Koreans trusted Washington, they would not want to have their own arsenal of the world’s most destructive weapons.....snip~


    Why Missile Defense? Because China Is Arming North Korea

    So the North Koreans cannot be “unmoored.” On the contrary, Beijing is enabling the behavior, if not directing it. If the Chinese were really trying to restrain North Korea, they would not have transferred the launchers to the Kim regime in the first place. China also has various means of controlling its client state. And while China arms the Kim regime, it is criticizing America for defending itself: the Foreign Ministry on Monday responded to Hagel’s announcement by suggesting the administration’s missile-defense plan would “antagonize” North Korea.


    North Korea is a regional menace. Thanks to China’s arms and technology transfers to North Korea—and the reach of its KN-08 missiles, which have sufficient range to hit targets on US soil—the Kim regime is on its way to being a global one. We don’t just have a North Korea problem. We have a China problem.....snip~

    Gordon G. Chang's Blog

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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    This clown has executed most of his generals since he started running the show, so there's no telling what he's got on his mind.

    On one hand, did he purge his generals, because they didn't wanted to invade the south? On the other hand, did he do it because they did want to invade the south?
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    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: N. Korea threats raise concern Kim backing regime into corner

    How about the possibility that Kim is just demonizing the USA to unite his countrymen behind him. He's a new leader and can generate a crisis in which he comes out smelling like a rose and looking powerful for standing up to the "Demon." This also distracts the citizens from local problems like hunger, etc. Since Teddy Roosevelt encouraged the Japanese to invade Korea, the USA has not been too popular. The USA has built a strong CORPORATE hegemony in South Korea to the benefit of the people, perhaps. Sometimes I think the North Koreans just want to re-unite the two Koreas as before the Japanese invasion. Also, as regards North Korean "nukes," our great ally Pakistan harbors the man who sold Nuclear Technology to the Third World and that would be A. Q. Khan, the National hero of Pakistan, and he walks the streets freely. Our ally, Pakistan, seems to be the nuclear benefactor/terrorist behind North Korea. Politics usually smells like fish whether it is local or international. There are no "white knights" in this embroglio.

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