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Thread: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

  1. #301
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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    Well since the EIA doesn't keep that stat we'll have to look elsewhere (but what the heck do you think plastics are made from?).
    So you don't have a source to back up your claim that 45% of the oil in the US is used to make plastics? Imagine that!

    From the EIA: "Refined petroleum products produced in the U.S. from both domestic and imported crude oil are exported to other countries."
    What's your point?




    Start here:

    Plastic bags are made from oil: it takes about 430,000 gallons of oil to produce 100 million plastic bags, and the U.S. goes through 380 billion of them a year.

    A statistics class at Indiana U did the math: more than 1.6 billion gallons of oil are used each year for plastic bags alone. The more we use plastic bags, the more we waste oil.

    Ok, 1.6 billion gallons of oil are used each year to make plastic bags, and "168 billion gallons of oil consumed in 2010" So what percentage of our total consumption goes to make plastic bags? Less than 1%. A far cry from your earlier claim.

    Still many like us have switched to cloth bags which I think is smart.


    Should have thought of that before you made your claim.


    Many claim to have a concrete figure, but those figures are all over the map ranging from 2% to 25% of all oil used goes to plastics.

    However, you're ducking the point - why not replace oil usage for all non-fuel usage of oil first?

    I'm all for weaning ourselves off a finite resource, and that includes plastics made from oil, but what makes the need for reducing our use of oil for energy is due to the damage to our environment caused in burning it for fuel. You have completely ignored that consequence.
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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    And yet they import more oil than they export to us.

    World oil prices (including the US) are determined by the world oil market. And most of the world's oil reserves are in the middle east.
    I will let you in on a few of the dirty secrets of the oil industry. Oil is just like beauty: it is in the eye of the beholder. When someone whizzes up a chart such as above, they choose a cutoff point based on API gravity and what is "proven and producible". If you look at conventional crudes assessed by conventional means, your chart might be representative. however, if you see what is going on in energy, it is irrelevant.

    First, consider the Bakken shales. The first wells were drilled in the '50s, but nobody could produce any oil from them, so until a few years ago, it didn't "exist". When the state of North Dakota began promoting the idea of producing from the Bakken, it was just as the state of the art in hydraulic fracturing started to reach a point where these non-reserves became oil wells. ND did new calculations a few times a year, and it became several orders of magnitude larger each time, and it is likely your chart is based on data long before this occurred.
    Is Bakken set to rival Saudi supergiant Ghawar oilfield? | Energy | News | Financial Post
    BUT: the majority of the Bakken is NOT in ND, it is in SK - where very little exploration and production has been done, so it still does not "exist". So, the non-reservoir Bakken oil looks as big as the biggest Saudi field when looking at an area that is maybe 20% of the entire reservoir (which, BTW, is the largest known single reservoir on earth - to geologists, not petro accountants) but most of it still does not "exist". This is "conventional crude" by anyone's standards. There are many other massive oil shale reserves in Canada, US, Europe, Russia and China (and no doubt several more) that don't "exist" to most of the world.

    Same goes for the Niobrara and Mississippi formations - staggering amounts of reserves that "don't exist" because they weren't economically producible with old technology at old prices. Guarantee they are not figured into your chart, because they are potentially LARGER than the Bakken.

    Then take a look at the Athabasca Oil Sands. Yes, there is a lot of production there now, but the vast majority of this "unconventional" reserve is still identified only from the areas now being produced, not from geological reality. Part of that is because those deeper areas of the deposit have not been developed yet. Depending on how you do the numbers, it is either about the size of the total reserves of the Persian Gulf or in total, when we find out how to produce all regions, larger than all of the known accumulation of oil on the planet. But, to a petro accountant, most of it doesn't "exist" either. Subtext, though: it ain't cheap stuff!

    Then there is the massive volume of "depleted" reservoirs in the lower 48. When someone stops producing a field, there is often 60-70% of the original oil still in place. Using enhanced recovery techniques (such as CO2 sequestration) another 20+% can be recovered in a very short time - but all of this is oil that doesn't "exist" because the fields are no longer being produced.

    Every time you move the technological boundaries or up the price, a LOT more oil becomes available that does not "exist" in assessments made from historical data.

    The second little bit: Basic Statistics - Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Canada produces a LOT more oil than we import and/or consume, but, please, keep that quiet. We don't want to be invaded any time soon.

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by cannuck View Post
    I will let you in on a few of the dirty secrets of the oil industry. Oil is just like beauty: it is in the eye of the beholder. When someone whizzes up a chart such as above, they choose a cutoff point based on API gravity and what is "proven and producible". If you look at conventional crudes assessed by conventional means, your chart might be representative. however, if you see what is going on in energy, it is irrelevant.

    First, consider the Bakken shales. The first wells were drilled in the '50s, but nobody could produce any oil from them, so until a few years ago, it didn't "exist". When the state of North Dakota began promoting the idea of producing from the Bakken, it was just as the state of the art in hydraulic fracturing started to reach a point where these non-reserves became oil wells. ND did new calculations a few times a year, and it became several orders of magnitude larger each time, and it is likely your chart is based on data long before this occurred.
    Is Bakken set to rival Saudi supergiant Ghawar oilfield? | Energy | News | Financial Post
    BUT: the majority of the Bakken is NOT in ND, it is in SK - where very little exploration and production has been done, so it still does not "exist". So, the non-reservoir Bakken oil looks as big as the biggest Saudi field when looking at an area that is maybe 20% of the entire reservoir (which, BTW, is the largest known single reservoir on earth - to geologists, not petro accountants) but most of it still does not "exist". This is "conventional crude" by anyone's standards. There are many other massive oil shale reserves in Canada, US, Europe, Russia and China (and no doubt several more) that don't "exist" to most of the world.

    Same goes for the Niobrara and Mississippi formations - staggering amounts of reserves that "don't exist" because they weren't economically producible with old technology at old prices. Guarantee they are not figured into your chart, because they are potentially LARGER than the Bakken.

    Then take a look at the Athabasca Oil Sands. Yes, there is a lot of production there now, but the vast majority of this "unconventional" reserve is still identified only from the areas now being produced, not from geological reality. Part of that is because those deeper areas of the deposit have not been developed yet. Depending on how you do the numbers, it is either about the size of the total reserves of the Persian Gulf or in total, when we find out how to produce all regions, larger than all of the known accumulation of oil on the planet. But, to a petro accountant, most of it doesn't "exist" either. Subtext, though: it ain't cheap stuff!

    Then there is the massive volume of "depleted" reservoirs in the lower 48. When someone stops producing a field, there is often 60-70% of the original oil still in place. Using enhanced recovery techniques (such as CO2 sequestration) another 20+% can be recovered in a very short time - but all of this is oil that doesn't "exist" because the fields are no longer being produced.

    Every time you move the technological boundaries or up the price, a LOT more oil becomes available that does not "exist" in assessments made from historical data.

    The second little bit: Basic Statistics - Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Canada produces a LOT more oil than we import and/or consume, but, please, keep that quiet. We don't want to be invaded any time soon.


    The reason oil sands are not included, is because they are not really oil reserves. And they are not an affordable replacement for the cheap to recover crude oil in the middle east, which is why most of the world's oil still comes from the Middle East.

    It is also why the US, Canada and Mexico still have to import oil to meet the demand for affordable oil.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    The US represents about 4% of the worlds population and uses 25% of the world's oil. The last year the US could produce as much oil as it consumed was 1971,



    Canada - "Oil - imports: 1.088 million bbl/day (2009 est.)

    Definition: This entry is the total oil imported in barrels per day (bbl/day), including both crude oil and oil products.

    Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of July 26, 2012"

    Canada Oil - imports - Economy


    Mexico - "Oil - imports: 496,000 bbl/day (2009 est.)

    Definition: This entry is the total oil imported in barrels per day (bbl/day), including both crude oil and oil products.

    Source: CIA World Factbook - Unless otherwise noted, information in this page is accurate as of July 26, 2012"

    Mexico Oil - imports - Economy
    Canada and Mexico also consume more oil than they produce.
    Factually incorrect.

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Cephus View Post
    It can't be changed because the only mechanism to change it is no longer functional. The mechanism itself has failed.
    Then change it.

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....



    Your sources don't refute the import numbers I provided from the CIA factbook.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    Your sources don't refute the import numbers I provided from the CIA factbook.
    They refute your statement

    Canada and Mexico also consume more oil than they produce.

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    They refute your statement
    Quote where they show different numbers for oil imports for the US, Canada, and Mexico.
    Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children. ~ Ancient American Indian Proverb

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by Catawba View Post
    The reason oil sands are not included, is because they are not really oil reserves. And they are not an affordable replacement for the cheap to recover crude oil in the middle east, which is why most of the world's oil still comes from the Middle East.

    It is also why the US, Canada and Mexico still have to import oil to meet the demand for affordable oil.
    Not quite. The oil from the oil sands comes out in two forms: synthetic crude (phenomenally good feestock) and dilbit (dilluted bitumen). The former is less quantity than the latter, and used up by Big Oil refineries in AB for the most part. The latter is what is mostly being produced in newer sites (requires much simpler, cheaper facility) and feeds anything with upgrading capacity (cokers). The reason we buy crude oil at all has more to do with pipeline capacity than anything else. We produce a LOT of crude oil in the West, but use a lot of product in the East, so Eastern refineries can buy from tankers what the pipelines don't have capacity to send East (don't ever reach some of the big ones at all). Also, there is NO way to get any serious volume Westbound (one tiny pipe to Vancouver, no where near enough to make any difference), so the bulk of the oil goes SOUTH to US - thus the big deal about the Keystone pipeline. The added capacity of the Bakken has filled what little capacity for growth was needed for alberta crudes, and has driven the wellhead price for both conventionals in AB, SK, ND down to nothing, and heavies from AB, WY, etc. into the toilet.

    So, a Canadian refiner could buy some nice Rainbow from North Central AB for about half the price of a Brent indexed crude on the water - but there is no way to GET it to the East or West coast, and the way South is constipated. Costs the governments of AB and SK a bundle in lost royalties so badly we can barely run a surplus in our budgets. Meanwhile, AB and SK refineries can make out like bandits on cheap domestic crude.

    BTW: that "cheap to recover" oil from the Middle East benefits the Middle East, not Western buyers. Crude still trades internationally pretty close to the Platt's reports, regardless of cost of production. Nor is it all that cheap any more (lifting costs in Saudi make production costs in the mid-$30 range) as many big fields are in the later stage of secondary recovery. Most of my friends over there are coming over here to learn how we do tertiary enhanced oil recovery.
    Last edited by cannuck; 03-20-13 at 07:41 PM.

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    Re: Obama Wants Research to Wean Vehicles off Oil.....

    Quote Originally Posted by jonny5 View Post
    Then change it.
    You're clearly not listening.
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