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Thread: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by ReformCollege View Post
    gross capital formation: Looking at only the nominal chart is completely misleading. Look at it as a % of GDP, and you'll see that it's way down. Not to mention this number is artificially inflated by the oil money and as their number one oil market starts requiring less oil imports (the US), they need to seriously ramp up other revenue sources to avoid serious economic problems.

    As for manufacturing, I've said a thousand times; their manufacturing is dominanted by the public sector which is mostly financed by oil. But also I'd point out that it has stagnated over the last four years, despite large deficits. You still aren't disproving anything I say; which most importantly is that Venezuela strictly depends on oil revenue to finance it's economic growth and that it had seen relatively little to no private sector growth and very little private sector investment over the last 5 years.
    No **** it went down, since GDP exploded when Oil was nationalized, but nominal is what is going to count when you have the whole GDP explode. Oil doesn't artificially inflate that because Oil isn't capital formation, it's money can be used for capital formation sure, but Oil in itself isn't that.

    So what if manufactufing is financed by Oil, it's better that than foreign banks, also manufacturing means private and public which make profits.

    Manufacturing hasn't stagnated, I've shown you statistics for that.

    All you've shown is that Oil greatly increased the pie, and that even though everything else grew, they didn't grow as fast ... you havn't shown anything.

    Also the private sector HAS grown Claims on private sector (annual growth as % of M2) in Venezuela (not that it makes a difference, growth in the public sector is just as good as growth in the private sector, economic activity is economic activity be it private, public or cooperative.)

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by RGacky3 View Post
    No **** it went down, since GDP exploded when Oil was nationalized, but nominal is what is going to count when you have the whole GDP explode. Oil doesn't artificially inflate that because Oil isn't capital formation, it's money can be used for capital formation sure, but Oil in itself isn't that.

    So what if manufactufing is financed by Oil, it's better that than foreign banks, also manufacturing means private and public which make profits.

    Manufacturing hasn't stagnated, I've shown you statistics for that.

    All you've shown is that Oil greatly increased the pie, and that even though everything else grew, they didn't grow as fast ... you havn't shown anything.

    Also the private sector HAS grown Claims on private sector (annual growth as % of M2) in Venezuela (not that it makes a difference, growth in the public sector is just as good as growth in the private sector, economic activity is economic activity be it private, public or cooperative.)
    Holy ****, for the fourth time, everything else grew STRICTLY BECAUSE OF OIL. Without oil, nothing else in their economy would get financed. What part of this are you not getting? Its not like they have any self-sustaining sectors. Shut down oil production for two months, and the countries GDP fell by 26% and manufacturing and construction by ~50%. I've shown you the chart, their GDP growth is nearly line on line with oil prices. Oil DOES inflate capital formation, BECAUSE IT IS THE ONLY THING FINANCING IT. What else is financing it? No foreign investment is being made in the country, and their capital formation is down below 20% despite required government loans and enormous amounts of oil revenue for investments to be made. The government was having to force banks at gunpoint to make loans to the private sector, and the country still had a ****ty rate of investment.

    The point is, it isn't sustainable and entire thing is just waiting to collapse on itself.

    Lol better than foreign banks? Um says who it has to be a choice? If they were playing smart, it would be an all of the above strategy.

    That doesn't look at private sector growth. That looks at finance being made to the private sector. A majority of Venezuela's "private investment" is due to mandated loans handed out by the government, which must be at least 20% of all loans made. Which has been, of course, forced by the government.


    But here, in case you were wondering. Something that actually deals directly with their manufacturing sector.



    Industrial Production in Venezuela decreased 2.17 percent in December of 2012 over the same month in the previous year. Industrial Production in Venezuela is reported by the Banco Central de Venezuela. Historically, from 1998 until 2012, Venezuela Industrial Production averaged 2.4 Percent reaching an all time high of 183.5 Percent in December of 2003 and a record low of -64.9 Percent in December of 2002. In Venezuela, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities. This page includes a chart with historical data for Venezuela Industrial Production
    Venezuela Industrial Production

    Wow, a grand total of 2.4% a year increase in manufacturing capacity. Round of applause

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by ReformCollege View Post
    Holy ****, for the fourth time, everything else grew STRICTLY BECAUSE OF OIL. Without oil, nothing else in their economy would get financed. What part of this are you not getting? Its not like they have any self-sustaining sectors. Shut down oil production for two months, and the countries GDP fell by 26% and manufacturing and construction by ~50%. I've shown you the chart, their GDP growth is nearly line on line with oil prices. Oil DOES inflate capital formation, BECAUSE IT IS THE ONLY THING FINANCING IT. What else is financing it? No foreign investment is being made in the country, and their capital formation is down below 20% despite required government loans and enormous amounts of oil revenue for investments to be made. The government was having to force banks at gunpoint to make loans to the private sector, and the country still had a ****ty rate of investment.

    The point is, it isn't sustainable and entire thing is just waiting to collapse on itself.

    Lol better than foreign banks? Um says who it has to be a choice? If they were playing smart, it would be an all of the above strategy.

    That doesn't look at private sector growth. That looks at finance being made to the private sector. A majority of Venezuela's "private investment" is due to mandated loans handed out by the government, which must be at least 20% of all loans made. Which has been, of course, forced by the government.


    But here, in case you were wondering. Something that actually deals directly with their manufacturing sector.
    First of all, that isn't the case, Oil production shuts down for 2 months and yeah it's a huge hit to the economy, shut down finance in the US see what happens. Even if Oil money is financing the rest of the economy, that's a good thing, i'ts better than than foreign investment or credit.

    And guess what, as the others sectors of the economy grow it becomes less dependant on Oil, unlike before where the whole economy was dependant on foreign profits.

    mandated government loans? show me a law that forces people to take out loans, that's absolute nonsense.

    Venezuela Industrial Production

    Wow, a grand total of 2.4% a year increase in manufacturing capacity. Round of applause
    Capacity isn't the best way to measure it, since many countires have huge excess capacity.

    The point is, you can trash the economy, but it is BETTER THAN BEFORE, and it's on the right path.

    Venezuela Balance of Trade

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by RGacky3 View Post
    First of all, that isn't the case, Oil production shuts down for 2 months and yeah it's a huge hit to the economy, shut down finance in the US see what happens. Even if Oil money is financing the rest of the economy, that's a good thing, i'ts better than than foreign investment or credit.

    And guess what, as the others sectors of the economy grow it becomes less dependant on Oil, unlike before where the whole economy was dependant on foreign profits.

    mandated government loans? show me a law that forces people to take out loans, that's absolute nonsense.



    Capacity isn't the best way to measure it, since many countires have huge excess capacity.

    The point is, you can trash the economy, but it is BETTER THAN BEFORE, and it's on the right path.

    Venezuela Balance of Trade
    Venezuela Unemployment Rate

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by RGacky3 View Post
    First of all, that isn't the case, Oil production shuts down for 2 months and yeah it's a huge hit to the economy, shut down finance in the US see what happens. Even if Oil money is financing the rest of the economy, that's a good thing, i'ts better than than foreign investment or credit.

    And guess what, as the others sectors of the economy grow it becomes less dependant on Oil, unlike before where the whole economy was dependant on foreign profits.

    mandated government loans? show me a law that forces people to take out loans, that's absolute nonsense.
    LMAO, you do realize that oil revenue depends on foreign capital just the same as foreign investment? What do you think is going when their biggest customer, the U.S., becomes energy independent and no longer needs to import Venezuelan crude? Are they just going to make up that 43% elsewhere? Please tell me exactly how their economy will expect to stay afloat.


    "Mandatory mortgage portfolio" = required loans.
    Venezuelan Government Increases Banking Sector


    Quote Originally Posted by RGacky3 View Post
    Capacity isn't the best way to measure it, since many countires have huge excess capacity.

    The point is, you can trash the economy, but it is BETTER THAN BEFORE, and it's on the right path.

    Venezuela Balance of Trade
    ROFLMAO. You think Venezuela is having enormous shortages of just about everything and a huge dependency on imports because of EXCESS CAPACITY?

    That might just take the cake as the worst argument I've heard in my life.

    Also, you really need to stop posting sources that prove me right. In case you haven't noticed, their balance of trade is trending lower; consistent with a weak manufacturing sector, and requiring imports for a vast majority for basic goods and services. If you were to subtract oil exports, you'd be seeing next to zero exports and a huge reliance on imports.

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by ReformCollege View Post
    LMAO, you do realize that oil revenue depends on foreign capital just the same as foreign investment? What do you think is going when their biggest customer, the U.S., becomes energy independent and no longer needs to import Venezuelan crude? Are they just going to make up that 43% elsewhere? Please tell me exactly how their economy will expect to stay afloat.


    "Mandatory mortgage portfolio" = required loans.
    Venezuelan Government Increases Banking Sector
    Consumption is not investment, so exporting is not the same as being "dependant on foreign capital," Yeah they are going to make up that 43% overtime, as the economy grows.

    Read the article, they arn't forcing people to take loans, they are forcing banks to offer loans, and low interest ... it's financial regulation to make sure it services the poorest in the country ... I think that is actually extremely good policy that would be good here in the US. It applies to state banks and chartered private banks (all banks are state chartered and insured, so no **** the state has a right to regulate) ... I love that, Chavez regulates the bank to make sure they offer low interest credit for low income housing and you claim "HE'S FORCING PEOPLE TO GO IN DEBT." Common now.


    ROFLMAO. You think Venezuela is having enormous shortages of just about everything and a huge dependency on imports because of EXCESS CAPACITY?

    That might just take the cake as the worst argument I've heard in my life.

    Also, you really need to stop posting sources that prove me right. In case you haven't noticed, their balance of trade is trending lower; consistent with a weak manufacturing sector, and requiring imports for a vast majority for basic goods and services. If you were to subtract oil exports, you'd be seeing next to zero exports and a huge reliance on imports.
    That isn't what I said, I said many countries ... like the US have excess capacity as a problem, i.e. tons of capital and no market, the fact that the opposite is the problem in Venezuela is a good thing, because it has plenty of space to grow.

    I was responding to you talking about manufacturing capacity growth, not shortages, don't mix arguments.

    Compare the balance of trade to before Chavez .... it's gotten BETTER.

    Venezuela GDP Probably Grew 4 Percent in 2011 on Higher Federal Spending - Bloomberg

    Non oil GDP up 4.3%, manufacturing up 3.5%, construction up 3.4%.

    Better is better.

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    As a result, Mr Chavez bequeaths a nation beset by crumbling infrastructure, unsustainable public spending and underperforming industry.....snip~

    "Venezuela is the fifth largest economy in Latin America, but during the last decade, it's been the worst performer in GDP per capita growth," says Arturo Franco of the Center for International Development at Harvard University.....snip~

    In the words of Michael Henderson at Capital Economics: "The current malaise is the product of years of capital flight and under-investment, which has hollowed out the country's productive base.".....snip~

    High inflation, still nudging 20% a year, doesn't help either....snip~

    As survey organisation Consensus Economics says: "Soaring inflation and government spending - coupled with currency and capital controls - have created a widening fiscal deficit. Unless PDVSA's underperformance can be remedied, those debts will remain and will probably grow as the country's gap between spending and income widens......snip~

    BBC News - Hugo Chavez leaves Venezuela in economic muddle

    Seems all those Business and Economists didn't get it wrong.....From Harvard to the UK. All seem to read Venezuela for what it actually is. Seems all that hype about Chavez was just that.....Hype!

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by RGacky3 View Post
    I don't care if it was the democrats or republicans, it was neo-liberals following Reagans financial deregulation policy that created it.

    The CRA has nothing to do with it.

    The bubble was created by deregulation allowing all sorts of externalities to build up and systemic risk, it was essnecially internal to Capitalism.
    Rewriting history doesn't help you....It was liberal/progressives following the Cloward/Piven strategy in housing, and still are. They're going to crash it again, along with education.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Rewriting history doesn't help you....It was liberal/progressives following the Cloward/Piven strategy in housing, and still are. They're going to crash it again, along with education.
    What housing policy actually led to the crash .. I can show you the neo-liberal reforms that led to it (repealing glass-steagel, refusing to regulate derivatives, and so on).

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    Re: AP: VP of Venezuela Has Announced Hugo Chavez has Died

    Quote Originally Posted by RGacky3 View Post
    What housing policy actually led to the crash .. I can show you the neo-liberal reforms that led to it (repealing glass-steagel, refusing to regulate derivatives, and so on).
    Read the CRA dreamed up by Carter's administration, and put on steroids by Clinton, with Cloward, and Piven at the signing. Then go look up the hearing where the demo's were attacking the regulators for sounding the alarm, and Barney Frank proclaiming that all is fine, and Franklin Raines was near sainthood for his bilking the people for near $90 million and disappearing.

    While the banks did turn piss poor mortgages into a casino, bundling knowingly misleading portfolios into trade instruments, what did you expect them to do in the face of being told that they MUST lend to people that they knew couldn't pay the debt? People that had NO income verification requirements? People that didn't have to do anything but say they were consultants and put down any figure that qualified for the half million dollar McMansion's and live the fraud they were signing. Then when it all crashes because these people were using they house as a revolving credit line and living WaaaaaaaY beyond their means, it somehow is the banks fault?

    BULL!
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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