Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

AdamT said:

Can you please post the IPCC's reports indicating that we were all going to freeze? A: no, because there was never any such report or conclusion by the IPCC, nor anything remotely like a consensus on global cooling.

What I would like to see is even one credible, peer-reviewed paper that explains how pumping gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere could NOT result in warming. Or for that matter, even one credible paper that proposes an actual explanation for observed warming that does not cite GHG emissions as a major source.

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Can't do that, because the IPCC didn't exist until 1988. There was never a report issued by the IPCC admitting the sun was the center of the solar system either. Your faith in the UN exceeds mine. Their political positions are enough to convince me that they have no business dabbling in scientific enterprises.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

polgara said:

Agreed! The largest contributors to pollution are on the other side of the planet, but WE are expected to comply with what are merely scientific theories presented by a group with an agenda with no questions allowed? What's wrong with that picture?

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Absolutely nothing if their intent is to sell insurance to fend off the effects of global warming. If their intent is to change human behavior on a global scale, it's gonna take a bit more than a used car salesman approach.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

Absolutely nothing if their intent is to sell insurance to fend off the effects of global warming. If their intent is to change human behavior on a global scale, it's gonna take a bit more than a used car salesman approach.

Click to expand...

I would be most interested in seeing an insurance policy like that, if only to see what "exclusions" are listed... :lamo

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

AdamT said:

Okay, well, post these reports and let's see the scientific data to back up the claim. Because every report I've yet to see a credible report claim that solar activity can account for the warming trend.

To be clear, everyone acknowledges that solar warming is the primary component to temperature. The question is, has there been any change in solar activity commensurate with the warming we've seen over the last 40 or so years.

Click to expand...

A warming trend has been noted on Mars that has mirrored the warming trend recently experienced here. I'd post the data, but I'm not posting anything like that until the warming mongers post their unfiltered data, too. Seriously, you CAN look this up and verify it for yourself.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

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'Botch after botch after botch'
Leaked 'climategate' documents show huge flaws in the backbone of climate change science

BY LORRIE GOLDSTEIN ,TORONTO SUN
FIRST POSTED: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2009 04:03 AM EST | UPDATED: SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 2009 11:29 AM EST
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I've been poring over one of many leaked computer files from the "climategate" scandal.

It's worse than those e-mails revealing leading climate scientists did a "trick" to "hide the decline" in global temperatures and privately called it a "travesty" they couldn't explain recent cooling.

This document has the innocuous header "HARRY_READ_Me.txt."

I'm indebted to Kate McMillan, the remarkable Canadian blogger who runs smalldeadanimals.com, for calling it to my attention.

You can easily find it online. I used www.anenglishmanscastle.com/HARRY_READ_Me.txt.

The file -- 274 pages long -- describes the efforts of a climatologist/programmer at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia to update a huge statistical database (11,000 files) of important climate data between 2006 and 2009.

The computer coding, along with the programmer's apparently unsuccessful efforts to complete the project, involve data that are the foundation of the study of climate change -- recordings from hundreds of weather stations around the world of temperature and precipitation measurements from 1901 to 2006, sun/cloud computer simulations, and the like.

PRESUMABLY PRECISE

These presumably precise data are the backbone of climate science.

Reading "HARRY_READ_ME.txt" it's clear the CRU's files were a mess. The programmer laments huge gaps in data, bug-filled programs and worries about all the guesswork he's doing. His comments suggest the problems go back years.

The CRU at East Anglia University is considered by many as the world's leading climate research agency. Here's how CBSNews.com's Declan McCullagh describes its enormous impact on policymakers:

"In global warming circles, the CRU wields outsize influence: It claims the world's largest temperature data set, and its work and mathematical models were incorporated into the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 report. The report ... is what the Environmental Protection Agency acknowledged it 'relies on most heavily' when concluding carbon dioxide emissions endanger public health and should be regulated."

As you read the programmer's comments below, remember, this is only a fraction of what he says.

- "But what are all those monthly files? DON'T KNOW, UNDOCUMENTED. Wherever I look, there are data files, no info about what they are other than their names. And that's useless ..." (Page 17)

- "It's botch after botch after botch." (18)

- "The biggest immediate problem was the loss of an hour's edits to the program, when the network died ... no explanation from anyone, I hope it's not a return to last year's troubles ... This surely is the worst project I've ever attempted. Eeeek." (31)

- "Oh, GOD, if I could start this project again and actually argue the case for junking the inherited program suite." (37)

- "... this should all have been rewritten from scratch a year ago!" (45)

- "Am I the first person to attempt to get the CRU databases in working order?!!" (47)

- "As far as I can see, this renders the (weather) station counts totally meaningless." (57)

- "COBAR AIRPORT AWS (data from an Australian weather station) cannot start in 1962, it didn't open until 1993!" (71)

- "What the hell is supposed to happen here? Oh yeah -- there is no 'supposed,' I can make it up. So I have : - )" (98)

- "You can't imagine what this has cost me -- to actually allow the operator to assign false WMO (World Meteorological Organization) codes!! But what else is there in such situations? Especially when dealing with a 'Master' database of dubious provenance ..." (98)

- "So with a somewhat cynical shrug, I added the nuclear option -- to match every WMO possible, and turn the rest into new stations ... In other words what CRU usually do. It will allow bad databases to pass unnoticed, and good databases to become bad ..." (98-9)

- "OH F--- THIS. It's Sunday evening, I've worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done, I'm hitting yet another problem that's based on the hopeless state of our databases." (241).

- "This whole project is SUCH A MESS ..." (266)

And based on stuff like this, politicians are going to blow up our economy and lower our standard of living to "fix" the climate?

Are they insane?

LORRIE.GOLDSTEIN@SUNMEDIA.CA

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

Thanks for the information. The result is the same regardless of the source. It would be helpful if scientists could offer unequivocal evidence that supports the theory they espouse. I understand that sets the bar pretty high for a theory, but considering the consequences of a full throated embrace of their theory, I think it's reasonable. If there wasn't this large element of skepticism from within the scientific community, those of us with limited understanding of such subjects might be a little more accommodating. Besides, I have an entire lifetime of "crisis events" looming as reported by our media and scientific community I can point to that have evaporated over a relatively short time.

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Being able to identify and source the CO2 is not the same thing as being able to demonstrate the connection between warming and CO2 rise.

Science is able to do a whole bunch of stuff with CO2 and the sourcing and the isotopes and all of that. Providing the causal link between all of the CO2 stuff and the warming that they say must be happening because it must be happening is just not being proven.

They have a notion that it might be, but this comes nowhere near being a Theory in the scientific sense.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

polgara said:

I would be most interested in seeing an insurance policy like that, if only to see what "exclusions" are listed... :lamo

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I believe it's safe to say that anything involving remuneration would be excluded. You have to understand the nature of such insurance. It's not about money. It's about staying cool, and the best way to stay cool is to have this insurance. If you don't have it, you're not cool and could be wearing plaid pants.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

head of joaquin said:

Something tells me I won't have to wait long before you'll post another freaky conspiracy theory about scientists and Al Gore. I mean, what else do you got but that.

I'm still waiting for you to reveal that "evolution is only a theory" or something with powerful knownothing roots like that. You need to bump up your denialist game.

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Just to put a point on the lack of credibility due AGW Science, Evolution is a Theory. As such, it provides a great basis for predictability and acts as the basis of biology, genealogy, breeding pathways of plants and animals, is empirically observed in seeing your uncle's nose on your nephew's face and can be used to both explain and predict numerous natural and laboratory events.

AGW Science has none of these empirically observed events, no predictability and acts as the basis for nothing except the justification of funding and revenue transfers.

This is the difference between a theory and a notion.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Manc Skipper said:

The water level in an Irish bog rose and fell four inches in only three thousand years! Climate science is obviously bunk.

Click to expand...

Good. Keep that mind closed.

Burn and witches today?

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

There was no "they". Copernicus challenged the scientific consensus at the time with irrefutable evidence. Even the Catholic church was forced to agree - no little thing at that time. Don't you think it's a little odd that the very groups who preach the virtues of an open mind are withholding the information required to make an informed judgement? That information would be the data in question and the computer models employed to analyze it. These two key elements are missing, and we're asked to simply accept the consensus of a portion of the scientific community or be labeled a nut for not acquiescing. I am neither a denier nor an endorser. I am waiting for the evidence to support the claimed consensus, and I intend to change nothing about my life unless and until that evidence is offered.

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In fairness to the Church, they had already been thinking about tit since they threatened Galileo.

Don't want to make it seem like they drop a belief of centuries over idle speculation.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

code1211 said:

Being able to identify and source the CO2 is not the same thing as being able to demonstrate the connection between warming and CO2 rise.

Science is able to do a whole bunch of stuff with CO2 and the sourcing and the isotopes and all of that. Providing the causal link between all of the CO2 stuff and the warming that they say must be happening because it must be happening is just not being proven.

They have a notion that it might be, but this comes nowhere near being a Theory in the scientific sense.

Click to expand...

I clearly lack the knowledge you have, and yet I am able to reach a similar conclusion with a layman's knowledge of this stuff. That alone should be sufficient for concern within the scientific community that they have not yet offered the required proof to generate action, and the actions they believe are necessary are significant enough to warrant such a proof. Furthermore, if the calculations they have offered to date to mitigate green house gases are correct, there's little reason to embark on their suggested course.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

code1211 said:

Good. Keep that mind closed.

Burn and witches today?

Click to expand...

That's more your forte, Pilgrim.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

AdamT said:

Okay, well, post these reports and let's see the scientific data to back up the claim. Because every report I've yet to see a credible report claim that solar activity can account for the warming trend.

To be clear, everyone acknowledges that solar warming is the primary component to temperature. The question is, has there been any change in solar activity commensurate with the warming we've seen over the last 40 or so years.

Click to expand...

It requires less energy to warm a warm thing than warm a cool thing.

We are at historically high levels of TSI even though those levels are lower than they were 40 years ago.

Hoever, the TSI in Indiana is ALWAYS less in August than in June, but the temperature is ALWAYS higher.

There can be and is a lagging effect of climate that extends year to year as is evidenced by the decrease of Ice in the Arctic.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

I believe it's safe to say that anything involving remuneration would be excluded. You have to understand the nature of such insurance. It's not about money. It's about staying cool, and the best way to stay cool is to have this insurance. If you don't have it, you're not cool and could be wearing plaid pants.

Click to expand...

LOL ! The clothing manufacturers are doubtless gearing up as we speak. Plaid will be the "in" fabric to have to make a statement against "cool," metaphorically speaking. Judging from what I am reading, they might have trouble keeping enough in stock to meet demand. :thumbs:

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

I clearly lack the knowledge you have, and yet I am able to reach a similar conclusion with a layman's knowledge of this stuff. That alone should be sufficient for concern within the scientific community that they have not yet offered the required proof to generate action, and the actions they believe are necessary are significant enough to warrant such a proof. Furthermore, if the calculations they have offered to date to mitigate green house gases are correct, there's little reason to embark on their suggested course.

Click to expand...

Don't be fooled by me. I know a couple big words, but am not in any way a scientist.

I was a proponent of the AGW stuff in about 2002 or 3, don't recall exactly, and someone told me on the boards provided by my ISP that the whole extent of warming since the year 0 was about 0.7 degrees. I was convinced that this was incorrect and so set about proving the poster wrong. I proved myself wrong.

Now I'm always amazed at how people simply close their eyes, ears and mind to everything that is being put out there in order to maintain their belief system.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Manc Skipper said:

That's more your forte, Pilgrim.

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Sorry. I, unlike you, accept almost nothing on faith.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

polgara said:

LOL ! The clothing manufacturers are doubtless gearing up as we speak. Plaid will be the "in" fabric to have to make a statement against "cool," metaphorically speaking. Judging from what I am reading, they might have trouble keeping enough in stock to meet demand. :thumbs:

Click to expand...

In 1975, I had a pair of plaid Corduroys, a white deep well turtleneck sweater and a suede jacket along with platform shoes for men. I was just about as cool as a guy could be.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

code1211 said:

Don't be fooled by me. I know a couple big words, but am not in any way a scientist.

I was a proponent of the AGW stuff in about 2002 or 3, don't recall exactly, and someone told me on the boards provided by my ISP that the whole extent of warming since the year 0 was about 0.7 degrees. I was convinced that this was incorrect and so set about proving the poster wrong. I proved myself wrong.

Now I'm always amazed at how people simply close their eyes, ears and mind to everything that is being put out there in order to maintain their belief system.

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Well, you've got me beaten. I don't know an isotope from beans. I am the recipient of a marvelous education which unfortunately exceeded my intellect. Sad, but not an entirely wasted effort. I'm living proof that a bonehead can do pretty well. You folks have a great day. I have things to do.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

A warming trend has been noted on Mars that has mirrored the warming trend recently experienced here. I'd post the data, but I'm not posting anything like that until the warming mongers post their unfiltered data, too. Seriously, you CAN look this up and verify it for yourself.

Click to expand...

Could it be that the current 13-year high in solar output might be the culprit? Nah, that would be too easy to understand by most people. We need lots of charts and graphs from computer analysis programs to explain it to us, in terms that cannot be understood, even by the scientists who admit same. Since it has been determined that we are easily awed by big words, that is what we receive today.... Common sense left the building in disgust....

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

code1211 said:

In 1975, I had a pair of plaid Corduroys, a white deep well turtleneck sweater and a suede jacket along with platform shoes for men. I was just about as cool as a guy could be.

Click to expand...

LOL ! I think a girlfriend of mine had a huge crush on you.... She thought you were SOOO COOL!... :thumbs:

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

polgara said:

Could it be that the current 13-year high in solar output might be the culprit? Nah, that would be too easy to understand by most people. We need lots of charts and graphs from computer analysis programs to explain it to us, in terms that cannot be understood, even by the scientists who admit same. Since it has been determined that we are easily awed by big words, that is what we receive today.... Common sense left the building in disgust....

Click to expand...

The warmists are in retreat. A professor named Svensmark is crushing them. He is aided and abetted by that well known hotbed of climate denial, The Royal Astronomical Society of the United Kingdom. Good afternoon, Polgara.

Did exploding stars help life on Earth to thrive? - Royal Astronomical ...
The Royal Astronomical Society › News & Press › News 2012
Apr 24, 2012 – Henrik Svensmark of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) sets out ... in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

Well, you've got me beaten. I don't know an isotope from beans. I am the recipient of a marvelous education which unfortunately exceeded my intellect. Sad, but not an entirely wasted effort. I'm living proof that a bonehead can do pretty well. You folks have a great day. I have things to do.

Click to expand...

Have a good day, Humbolt.

Come back when the fancy strikes you....

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Although I do remember some of the data in reports in the news for a short time, that you guys bring it back with clear explanation, will drive the long time entrenched drones in here crazy...I think its great...Welcome to you guys, hope y'all stick around.

:2wave:

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

humbolt said:

I clearly lack the knowledge you have, and yet I am able to reach a similar conclusion with a layman's knowledge of this stuff. That alone should be sufficient for concern within the scientific community that they have not yet offered the required proof to generate action, and the actions they believe are necessary are significant enough to warrant such a proof. Furthermore, if the calculations they have offered to date to mitigate green house gases are correct, there's little reason to embark on their suggested course.

Click to expand...

Clearly you have an astoundingly unrealistic opinion as to what you can and cannot conclude based upon your lack of scientific bona fides.

Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

Jack Hays said:

The warmists are in retreat. A professor named Svensmark is crushing them. He is aided and abetted by that well known hotbed of climate denial, The Royal Astronomical Society of the United Kingdom. Good afternoon, Polgara.

Did exploding stars help life on Earth to thrive? - Royal Astronomical ...
The Royal Astronomical Society › News & Press › News 2012
Apr 24, 2012 – Henrik Svensmark of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) sets out ... in the journal Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

Click to expand...

I really hate to burst your bubble, but Svensmark really hasn't proven anything. Deniers have been flocking to cosmic rays for years as a last best hope to support their anti-global-warming religion, but there's really no there there. RealClimate: A review of cosmic rays and climate: a cluttered story of little success