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Thread: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

  1. #801
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    Lord of Planar's Avatar
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    No, that is why it can't be a hypothesis. I'm really puzzled here, how can somebody who claims to know so much about science not even understand the most basic aspects of the scientific method? Climate change is a large term given to thousands of individual pieces of information, data, experiments, hypotheses, etc. As I responded to code it is a unifying theory the encompasses many different fields of science. It consists of many individual hypotheses. It itself is not a hypothesis... That is why we use models. You don't seem to understand the more complicated aspects of this. I thought I explained it quite simply but I guess you don't get it.
    Well, the bottom line is that it will never be accepted as theory, until the modeling can be made reliable, or until we have the technology to support it without modeling.

    Have any reliable models?

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W

    Quote Originally Posted by Threegoofs View Post
    I have a theory about this.

    It's complicated, involves quite a bit of self delusion, arrogance, paranoia, and a dash of troll. But I digress...
    Haha, sounds about right. I can only imagine what kind of bizarre angle he'll be coming back with.

    It still amazes me how dispensing basic rudimentary science is so controversial to conservatives.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    Well, the bottom line is that it will never be accepted as theory, until the modeling can be made reliable, or until we have the technology to support it without modeling.

    Have any reliable models?
    LoL, never be accepted as a theory? By who you? Do we really have to go back to the consensus argument again... my god man. You can believe whatever you want, stop misrepresenting mainstream science though.

    If you don't like the models create a new thread with a very specific intent to question the models and place in this thread honest, accurate, criticisms about their weaknesses.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I'm. Nit diverting. A strawman is beating up something easier. A red herring is more diverting to something more agreeable. I told you, j, and others I picked an easier more understandable place to start, and that we could build from there, which is addressing the topic. Now, if you and they lack the courage or ability to tackle this, don't. I understand. But, we effect. The water, the ground, he air, all of this is the environment. Each place a role in our lives on this planet. There is no logical reason to believe that you can effect everything but the planet warming, especially scientist point to how we do just that.


    The amount of warming that CO2 can accomplish at the current concentrations is very minimal. That is what the actual scientists say. I've explained this to you and posted this for you before. I f you wish to remain willfully ignorant, you are welcome to do so.

    4. Carbon dioxide is already absorbing almost all it can « JoNova

    Regarding your Straw Man argument, you talk about dumping a barrel of something into a lake. What is the something? What size is the barrel? What size is the lake? Was there already something in the lake causing problems that needed the barrel of whatever it is to be dumped in to correct a problem previously there whatever that was?

    Even a straw man needs some bones to stand.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I'm. Nit diverting. A strawman is beating up something easier. A red herring is more diverting to something more agreeable. I told you, j, and others I picked an easier more understandable place to start, and that we could build from there, which is addressing the topic. Now, if you and they lack the courage or ability to tackle this, don't. I understand. But, we effect. The water, the ground, he air, all of this is the environment. Each place a role in our lives on this planet. There is no logical reason to believe that you can effect everything but the planet warming, especially scientist point to how we do just that.


    If you are talking about the possibility that all things things affect all things when they contact each other, I agree. They do.

    I hope that puts this to bed.

    In the case of CO2 in the atmosphere, I have explained to you that at the current concentrations, additional CO2 will not cause appreciable amounts of additional warming. For your ease of reference:

    4. Carbon dioxide is already absorbing almost all it can « JoNova

    If you want to talk about your lake and your barrel, how big is the barrel? What was in the barrel? How big is the lake? What was in the lake before you dumped your barrel?

    Did a scientist tell you to dump the barrel into the lake?
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    That's actually not true. You guys don't even Know the arguments. The argument is we can stop our contribution, thus slowing it down closer to a more natural cycle. It's hard to debate people who don't even know what they are debating.

    Are you saying that all of mankind, all 7+ Billion of us, can stop the contribution of CO2 to the Atmosphere?

    That aside, though, reducing the contribution of Anthropogenic CO2 will not alter the warming or the cooling of the planet if the CO2 is not the cause of the warming or the cooling of the planet.

    There is no scientific body on the planet that has pronounced AGW to be a Scientific Theory. There is not one scientific organization on the planet that is a proponent of AGW Science that has proposed a method by which this can be falsified so it really is not even a Scientific hypothesis.

    Talk about not understanding the argument...

    You have some serious proving to do.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    Again, you need to read, you don't understand what you're talking about.

    Scientific theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    What does the complexity of AGW have to do with evolution? What on earth are you even talking about?

    Then you imply it is not a theory, nor even a hypothesis? What on earth are you talking about? It wouldn't be a hypothesis anyway as it contains many, many different factors from many different disciplines of science. It encompasses many individual hypotheses. It is a large unifying body of evidence. Again I don't think you have the slightest clue what you're talking about.


    The reason I brought up the THEORY of Evolution is that it, too, is a very complex idea that cuts across virtually all sciences. It affects all forms of life in all places in all climates and all times. It is arguably far more complex than the climate and yet it has been proven to reliable enough when making PREDICTIONS to be called a THEORY.

    It works all of the time. When it seems to not be working, it turns out that it is working and is doing so in ways that we just did not consider. The questions posed by evolution re-inforce the science that supports it when the answers are found.

    AGW "Science", on the other hand, has not one part of the requirements to be a Scientific Theory. The questions posed by AGW undermine the the science that supports it when the answers are found.

    Are you saying that the THEORY of Evolution is not complex? Ever heard of DNA?

    From your link:

    <snip>
    A body of descriptions of knowledge is usually only called a theory if it has fulfilled these criteria:
    It makes falsifiable predictions with consistent accuracy across a broad area of scientific inquiry (such as mechanics).
    It is well-supported by many independent strands of evidence, rather than a single foundation. This ensures that it is probably a good approximation, if not completely correct.
    It is consistent with pre-existing theories and other experimental results. (Its predictions may differ slightly from pre-existing theories in cases where they are more accurate than before.)
    It can be adapted and modified to account for new evidence as it is discovered, thus increasing its predictive capability over time.
    It is among the most parsimonious explanations, sparing in proposed entities or explanations. (See Occam's razor. Since there is no generally accepted objective definition of parsimony, this is not a strict criterion, but some theories are much less economical than others.)
    The first three criteria are the most important. Theories considered scientific meet at least most of the criteria, but ideally all of them. This is true of such established theories as special and general relativity, quantum mechanics, plate tectonics, evolution,etc.
    <snip>

    For your convenience, I've highlighted in RED those parts of the criteria that prevent this notion from being a Scientific Theory.
    Last edited by code1211; 08-18-13 at 09:36 AM.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    That's actually not true. You guys don't even Know the arguments. The argument is we can stop our contribution, thus slowing it down closer to a more natural cycle. It's hard to debate people who don't even know what they are debating.
    The big questions, of course, are: just who is we and exactly how "stopping our contribution" will be accomplished? Even if concensus existed on defining the problem is that "we" are far from having any agreement on any of the proposed "solutions".
    “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself.
    Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” ― George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    In genetics, we have seen changes that are experimentally repeatable. To become a theory, it is required for testing to be repeatable. Now I disagree that evolution should be called a theory, but I accept that it is. Time and time again, there is not counter evidence to the ideas proposed. In the case of the complexities of anthropogenic global warming, the atmospheric mix cannot be properly simulated in a laboratory to do repeated testing on. It can only be modeled, and there are legitimate papers that have radiative forcing values for CO2 that decrease warming in some studies. It is not repeatable when values are all over the place.


    If AGW had consistent predictive accuracy, that would be a giant step in the right direction to becoming a Theory.

    Since it is consistently and constantly falsified by its own emptiness, it's difficult for a proponent to define an exercise by which it can be falsified without blowing up the whole notion.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax View Post
    Haha, sounds about right. I can only imagine what kind of bizarre angle he'll be coming back with.

    It still amazes me how dispensing basic rudimentary science is so controversial to conservatives.


    It amazes me that people who accept fantasy as fact think they are following the Scientific Method.

    Have you found that Science organization that calls this notion a Theory yet?
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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