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Thread: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

  1. #61
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I will add to my comments in Message #2. Three quick thoughts before posting some of the draft report's key findings:

    1. It is astonishing that the whomever wrote the news story cited at the beginning of this thread never read the IPCC report.
    2. The news story is an example of confirmation bias at its worst. It latches onto a piece of information that is taken out of context and assumes that the draft report has retreated on the findings of earlier IPCC assessments.
    3. Perhaps the two points above explain why the news organization that disseminated the story and the bloggers who have latched onto the incorrect story, were so far off the mark when it came to the 2012 U.S. Presidential election.

    In general, in a free society, people need reliable information to make rational choices. The above story is not an example of reliable information. Public policy that is based on such flawed information is not optimal, as it misses the actual problem at hand (assumes that it doesn't exist). Hence, one can't proceed to the necessary discussion of costs and benefits, even as the opportunity costs associated with that flawed assumption could be rising.

    As for the leaked draft report, these are its major conclusions as it relates to AGW:

    Globally, CO2 is the strongest driver of climate change compared to other changes in the atmospheric composition, and changes in surface conditions. Its relative contribution has further increased since the 1980s and by far outweighs the contributions from natural drivers. CO2 concentrations and rates of increase are unprecedented in teh last 800,000 years and at least 20,000 years, respectively.

    I underlined the text related to natural drivers, as solar activity is a natural driver. The report makes unambiguously clear that the forcing related to CO2 far exceeds the impact of natural drivers, including the solar component, when it comes to ongoing climate change.

    The report adds:

    There is consistent evidence from observations of a net energy uptake of the Earth System due to an imbalance in the energy budget. It is virtually certain that this is caused by human activities, primarily by the increase in CO2 concentrations. There is very high confidence that natural forcing contributes only a small fraction to this imbalance.

    Notice again that natural factors explain only "a small fraction" of the earth's ongoing energy imbalance, which is leading to heating. Indeed, the earth maintained a sizable energy imbalance even during the recent solar minimum, which was the longest and deepest solar minimum since at least the early 20th century.

    Fine and dandy if you want to place all your trust into what the UN comes up with for you, personally I do not. Second, tell me, what is the methodology they used to come up with that pant load of crap?
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Travis007 View Post
    reality...
    How would you tell that?
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    How would you tell that?
    cough... so becasue the Dinosaurs had no agenda... and basic common facts..they also call that history...
    I also know the UNs agenda...

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Fine and dandy if you want to place all your trust into what the UN comes up with for you, personally I do not. Second, tell me, what is the methodology they used to come up with that pant load of crap?
    The UN ..what a sesspool.... get it out of my city...

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Fine and dandy if you want to place all your trust into what the UN comes up with for you, personally I do not. Second, tell me, what is the methodology they used to come up with that pant load of crap?
    Damn, you where quick to believe the UN when you thought they said what you wanted to believe. Did you get whiplash reversing yourself like that?
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Well, surprise, surprise....Warming is caused by the sun.....Who'd have thunk it?.....

    So the question is, why would an international body like the UN be pushing so hard for man made climate change? The answer is in what few know about, called agenda 21.,.
    There are a few strings already in the E&C section about the/this Alec Rawls leak.
    Debunked ones.
    ie
    http://www.debatepolitics.com/enviro...post1061258085

    IPCC 5th report on global warming draft leaked online, evidence stronger - National Green Living | Examiner.com
    DECEMBER 14, 2012
    BY: ANNE SECCOMBE

    "...The agent of the Leak is a rather colorful Climate Contrarian named Alec Rawls, who essentially claimed, on the basis of a single sentence in the draft, that the entire edifice of climate science is about to collapse. - In his interpretation, the group putting the report together, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is about to acknowledge the validity of a longstanding fringe theory: that cosmic rays have a huge influence on the earth’s climate.

    The lead author of the chapter from which the sentence in question was plucked, is Professor Steve Sherwood, the director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of NSW. ABC News in Australia contacted Steve directly to get his response to the blogger's interpretation of the information. Here is what HE had to say:

    "I'm sure you could go and read those paragraphs yourself and the summary of it and see that we Conclude Exactly the Opposite - that this cosmic ray effect that the paragraph is discussing appears to be negligible,"

    he told Mark Colvin of the ABC's PM show.

    "What it shows is that we looked at this. We look at everything.
    "The IPCC has a very comprehensive process where we try to look at all the influences on climate and so we looked at this one."

    Professor Sherwood and other leading scientists in the field of climate science are of the Consensus that the body of data we have available today has effectively disproved the hypothesis that sunspots have a greater effect on global warming than does anthropogenic, or in other words human, activity.

    "There have been a couple of papers suggesting that solar forcing affects climate through cosmic rays, cloud interactions, but most of the literature on this shows that doesn't actually work," he said.

    "Even the sentence Doesn't say what they say and certainly if you look at the context, we're really saying the Opposite."

    The entire interview is available to listen to here. Draft IPCC report leaked - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
    Last edited by mbig; 02-05-13 at 05:35 PM.
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Damn, you where quick to believe the UN when you thought they said what you wanted to believe. Did you get whiplash reversing yourself like that?

    If I used the UN before in any argument it was only in a search of a source that liberals like you would accept...Trust me when I say, that I don't trust most all of what their agenda is.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    If I used the UN before in any argument it was only in a search of a source that liberals like you would accept...Trust me when I say, that I don't trust most all of what their agenda is.
    You only needed to search this thread. Hell,m just look at the title of the thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Well, surprise, surprise....Warming is caused by the sun.....Who'd have thunk it?.....

    So the question is, why would an international body like the UN be pushing so hard for man made climate change? The answer is in what few know about, called agenda 21.



    So you all tell me. I know that those willing, or wanting to mask the "ends" that they are for will attack me for using the Blaze as a source for the secondary piece, but agenda 21 is there for all to read...

    Agenda 21 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Read it, and do your own research, but this is probably the clearest sign that the UN is a dangerous to freedom, and needs to be dismantled.
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by mbig View Post
    There are a few strings already in the E&C section about the/this Alec Rawls leak.
    Debunked ones.
    ie
    http://www.debatepolitics.com/enviro...post1061258085
    If and when, and it is a big IF, the science community returns to sound science, and not politically driven usury, then I will listen. But, so far in the AGW movement, much more mirrors a religion, or cult than it does sound anything.
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    You only needed to search this thread. Hell,m just look at the title of the thread.
    I am sorry that I don't buy into the religion of man made global warming con job, that is aimed at taking rights. But you are free to....
    Americans are so enamored of equality that they would rather be equal in slavery than unequal in freedom.

    Alexis de Tocqueville

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