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Thread: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    I find it to be annoying when idiots change quotes and present them as quotes.
    I like it as long as it is clever and obvious. Use italics to clearly identify the changed words...or bold or both.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by distraff View Post
    According to this article:
    Black carbon is worse for global warming than previously thought | Environment | theguardian.com

    CO2 alone is responsible for 1.6 watts per square meter. Black carbon is responsible for 1.1 watts per square meter. Remember that this is one study that may be later confirmed or dis-confirmed. So lets not jump to any conclusions yet.
    Yes, you caught me.

    I forget what the total is positive forcing is. CO2 is at 1.66 W/m^2 according to the IPCC, but net warming is 1.6 WW/m^2. According to the IPCC, the cooling effects (negative forcing components) make the net warming about equal to the warming of CO2.

    Think about this though.

    Solar is increased, BC is increased. This means for CO2 and the net forcing to stay as claimed by the IPCC, other warming factors have to decrease, or they have to find a way to claim more cooling by other factors.

    Either way. The alarmist community is wrong on their assessments.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    Yes, you caught me.

    I forget what the total is positive forcing is. CO2 is at 1.66 W/m^2 according to the IPCC, but net warming is 1.6 WW/m^2. According to the IPCC, the cooling effects (negative forcing components) make the net warming about equal to the warming of CO2.

    Think about this though.

    Solar is increased, BC is increased. This means for CO2 and the net forcing to stay as claimed by the IPCC, other warming factors have to decrease, or they have to find a way to claim more cooling by other factors.

    Either way. The alarmist community is wrong on their assessments.
    Another example of how you don't even know what you're talking about. Why would you divide the forcing of black carbon by the forcing of Co2? You would divide bc by the total forcing to get the percentage it contributes. Unless of course you wanted to skew the results to prove your "cause".

    You would divide 1.1 by 4.3 to get 25.5% which is certainly significant as it is but no need to exaggerate.

    However I have to ask.... how does this negate anything? What was it about 60% of the bc comes from burning fossil fuels which environmentalists are trying to stop. The effects of bc are quickly mitigated so reduction of fossil fuel use would have immediate benefits.

    What exactly are you denying here? Co2 is still by far the #1 contributor to climate change.

    Once again you are playing jockey jumping between denying climate change, accepting it but saying there is nothing we can do, denying it but saying its black carbon... You switch stances more times than Mic Jagger performing on stage.

    EDIT:

    Oh yeah lets add some more of your stances. Last week it was variations in solar forcing that deserved the lion's share of the blame right? But what about Sven... whatever his name is, with the gamma rays. Didn't you say its the gamma rays that are doing it?

    What's your stance going to be next week?
    Last edited by Verax; 08-10-13 at 10:00 PM.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    Another example of how you don't even know what you're talking about.
    I knew exactly what I was doing.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    Why would you divide the forcing of black carbon by the forcing of Co2?
    That's not what I did.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    You would divide bc by the total forcing to get the percentage it contributes.
    Yes, The total net forcing is 1.6 W/m^2. BC is 0.71 W/m^2.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't 44% of 1.6 equal to 0.71?

    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    Unless of course you wanted to skew the results to prove your "cause".
    I did explain it in post 492, didn't I?


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    You would divide 1.1 by 4.3 to get 25.5% which is certainly significant as it is but no need to exaggerate.
    Is the 4.3 the total positive forcing? I don't recall, I would have to look it up.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    However I have to ask.... how does this negate anything? What was it about 60% of the bc comes from burning fossil fuels which environmentalists are trying to stop.
    Is it only 60%? Without looking, I would suspect more than 60% comes from fossil fuels.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    The effects of bc are quickly mitigated so reduction of fossil fuel use would have immediate benefits.
    Really?

    That peer reviewed article has BC GWP at 900 for the 100 year timeframe. The AR4 places methane at 25, and N2O at 298.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    What exactly are you denying here? Co2 is still by far the #1 contributor to climate change.
    According to the IPCC yes.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    Once again you are playing jockey jumping between denying climate change, accepting it but saying there is nothing we can do, denying it but saying its black carbon... You switch stances more times than Mic Jagger performing on stage.
    Once again, I do not deny AGW or climate change. I disagree with the impact claimed for CO2. Please, get that strait. I forget how many times I remind you and others of that.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    EDIT:

    Oh yeah lets add some more of your stances. Last week it was variations in solar forcing that deserved the lion's share of the blame right?
    Yes. I still believe that solar is the primary cause of warming since 1750. That article only covered the last 100 years for solar. I believe solar to be about 0.9 W/m^2 since 1750. Even if BC is stronger than solar, my consistent claim for several years now has been that CO2 takes third place to solar and soot.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    But what about Sven... whatever his name is, with the gamma rays. Didn't you say its the gamma rays that are doing it?
    No, I'm a bit neutral on that. I believe he is correct that there is an effect, but I think it will be less than CO2.


    Quote Originally Posted by Verax
    What's your stance going to be next week?
    The same as the last several years I bet. Now if something changes, I will not be ashamed to admit "I was wrong."

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by distraff View Post
    According to this article:
    Black carbon is worse for global warming than previously thought | Environment | theguardian.com

    CO2 alone is responsible for 1.6 watts per square meter. Black carbon is responsible for 1.1 watts per square meter. Remember that this is one study that may be later confirmed or dis-confirmed. So lets not jump to any conclusions yet.
    Thanx.

    I had to do a double-take on that.

    One of the two links I posted earlier has a 1.1 F increase in temperature for warming over the last 100 years, so I didn't notice this right away. The study the Guardian cites is the same one I linked in post #481. They do in fact say 1.1 W/m^2 instead of 0.71 for a total forcing increase cased by BC. The 0.71 is the direct atmospheric forcing only. the 1.1 comes when calculating the warming/melting ice, etc. as well.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord of Planar View Post
    Really?

    Then can you point me to an actual debate rather than pal review vs. peer review wars? I can't find any.

    Call for an Open Debate on Climate Science.

    Funny how I have listened to skeptics speak, and they claim the likes of Hansen, Mann, and others refuse to have an actual debate on the subject. Have you ever heard of an actual debate between climate scientists?



    What did I say that was inaccurate? Was it real, or a typo? Can you please tell me what mistake I made?

    You didn't answer my question.

    In that study, they take those with the AGW agreement (97.1%) and mention a 50% point. They do not say how many of the scientists say that AGW is more or less than 50% of the observed warming.

    You fail to comprehend my argument that YES! AGW is real. My argument is that it is less than 50% of the warming. They mention the 50% point, but do not quantify it.

    I wonder why...

    How many times have I mentioned that what is not said, is as important as what is said?
    Would you call for an open debate on gravity? You see, treating nonsense as if it were valid is showing bias.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warming

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    In other news the Holder Justice Department is investigating Fast and Furious to find out what they did and when they did it. Obama is investigating his Benghazi Massacre and estimates he will eventually find out where he was from the moment he was notified of the attack to the time he departed 9 hours later for his Las Vegas fundraiser.
    Which in no way speaks to this issue.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    Would you call for an open debate on gravity? You see, treating nonsense as if it were valid is showing bias.
    Why would I do such a silly thing?

    Gravity has been quantified, and there is no dispute in the scientific community about it.

    How many scientists disagree with the values assigned to gravity? can you think of any?

    Several scientists dispute the warming values given to CO2.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I've done that already. I did it over many posts. Many sources.

    Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature - IOPscience

    However, these types of articles are something you really should read:

    Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?

    (Snip)

    The third characteristic is selectivity, drawing on isolated papers that challenge the dominant consensus or high lighting the flaws in the weakest papers among those that support it as a means of discrediting the entire field.

    http://eurpub.oxfordjournals.org/con...9/1/2.full.pdf



    I already know there is a consensus. What exactly are they consenting to and what is the proof that the consensus is justified? Do they all agree there is some effect from CO2? The whole effect comes from CO2? What is the exact thing that they all are agreeing to?

    Why do you continue to repeat the same thing over and over? Make one assertion and back it up with evidence.

    As an example, you could assert and demonstrate that CO2 is prime driver of climate or demonstrate exactly what contribution warming CO2 has. That's all I'm asking.

    Are you incapable of producing this?

    There are at least 50 forcing factors for warming and climate change. To quantify the effect of one, you must quantify the effect of all. For your first attempt, though, I will accept the definition of the quantity of the effect from only the effect of CO2.

    If you determine that CO2 is the prime driver of warming, please be prepared to explain why the warming stops and drops despite the continuous and constant rise of CO2.

    Attachment 67151904
    Last edited by code1211; 08-11-13 at 08:45 AM.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Misterveritis View Post
    I like it as long as it is clever and obvious. Use italics to clearly identify the changed words...or bold or both.


    I don't mind if the poster posts the quote as it is and then, separate from the quote in the body of the response, uses quotation marks and makes it clear what was said and what the revision is.

    Changing the quote within the little quote balloon is nothing less than dishonest and libelous.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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