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Thread: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

  1. #31
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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    This is the rehashed we don't know everything, so we know nothing.. (often followed by Goddidit) argument. We know enough to make an informed assessment of what is happening. We also know that no alternative explanation better fits the circumstances in which we find ourselves
    No, it's not. We are learning more about the system, but we do not know enough about it to make the determinations, to draw the conclusions that are being drawn to suit POLITICAL purposes.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Climate does change naturally. Does this preclude the possibility of humans influencing it?
    I only ask because your wording seems to be exclusive.
    Theoretically, of course not. But it is highly arrogant of us to think we can control global climate. It's like claiming we can harness a thunderstorm or stop an earthquake.

    Unfortunately, theory is now postulative fact in liberal academia. The Scientific Method has been tossed in the trash. Whatever serves the political party of choice, and drives millions into the "underpaid" salaries of quirky, misfitted professors.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    No. Literally nobody said that. You misunderstood.

    The trick is to realize that more than one thing affects climate. At any given moment one or more of those factors might have significant influence on the observed trend, and one or more of those factors might have little or no change.

    Over the last 50 years the biggest factor has been increasing greenhouse gases.
    The 50 years prior to that was primarily solar forcing.

    This isn't some new argument I'm fabricating. This has always been the argument. Literally nobody has ever suggested that sun doesn't affect temperature. If at any point this is your interpretation of the argument, your interpretation is wrong.


    The greater the concentration of CO2 becomes, the less and less every incremental increase of the concentration will have on the climate. The change in that effect today is so small as to be nonexistent.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Solar variations. This isn't hard information to discover. (although they don't call that "man-made" for obvious reasons. perhaps your error is in thinking that climate changes can only be natural or man-made, but "either" and "both" are also options)

    Is it possible that the solar irradiance had increased and NOT changed, but that the ongoing effect of the previously increased but currently stable irradience was just warming things up as a result of the aggregate effect?

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    This is the rehashed we don't know everything, so we know nothing.. (often followed by Goddidit) argument. We know enough to make an informed assessment of what is happening. We also know that no alternative explanation better fits the circumstances in which we find ourselves

    The difference is that one group says we don't know enough about this so let's learn more about this while another group is saying we don't know enough about this so let's run of half cocked and change the world even though it might not do anything productive or corrective.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    The difference is that one group says we don't know enough about this so let's learn more about this while another group is saying we don't know enough about this so let's run of half cocked and change the world even though it might not do anything productive or corrective.
    That may be the case in your reality, but not in the real world.
    Don't work out, work in.

    Never eat anything that's served in a bucket.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    No, it's not. We are learning more about the system, but we do not know enough about it to make the determinations, to draw the conclusions that are being drawn to suit POLITICAL purposes.
    clownboy, the climatologist speaks.

    Regrettably for rightwing conspiracy theorists, real climatologists disagree.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by clownboy View Post
    Not every issue falls into the silly left v right category of thinking you seemingly default to. I know a number of leftists who don't buy into the cult, just as I know a number of right-wingers who do.
    Yes, yes, all three of them.

    Climate change denialism is a rightwing meme, fostered and paid for by Big Carbon, and activiting the conspiratorial part of the tea party brain, such as it is. Progressives listen to scientists and try to make rational policy based on the best science.

    It's sort of funny to hear you defend you position by claiming falsely that some liberals are as irrational as you are.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    It's a natural process. But today, everything has to be a freaking crisis so government can expand indiscrimantly and exponentially.

    Scare the crap out of people and tax them to death.
    IT'S A CONSPIRACY!

    Inevitably conservatives after losing on the merits, take bastion in this lunacy.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    I will add to my comments in Message #2. Three quick thoughts before posting some of the draft report's key findings:

    1. It is astonishing that the whomever wrote the news story cited at the beginning of this thread never read the IPCC report.
    2. The news story is an example of confirmation bias at its worst. It latches onto a piece of information that is taken out of context and assumes that the draft report has retreated on the findings of earlier IPCC assessments.
    3. Perhaps the two points above explain why the news organization that disseminated the story and the bloggers who have latched onto the incorrect story, were so far off the mark when it came to the 2012 U.S. Presidential election.

    In general, in a free society, people need reliable information to make rational choices. The above story is not an example of reliable information. Public policy that is based on such flawed information is not optimal, as it misses the actual problem at hand (assumes that it doesn't exist). Hence, one can't proceed to the necessary discussion of costs and benefits, even as the opportunity costs associated with that flawed assumption could be rising.

    As for the leaked draft report, these are its major conclusions as it relates to AGW:

    Globally, CO2 is the strongest driver of climate change compared to other changes in the atmospheric composition, and changes in surface conditions. Its relative contribution has further increased since the 1980s and by far outweighs the contributions from natural drivers. CO2 concentrations and rates of increase are unprecedented in teh last 800,000 years and at least 20,000 years, respectively.

    I underlined the text related to natural drivers, as solar activity is a natural driver. The report makes unambiguously clear that the forcing related to CO2 far exceeds the impact of natural drivers, including the solar component, when it comes to ongoing climate change.

    The report adds:

    There is consistent evidence from observations of a net energy uptake of the Earth System due to an imbalance in the energy budget. It is virtually certain that this is caused by human activities, primarily by the increase in CO2 concentrations. There is very high confidence that natural forcing contributes only a small fraction to this imbalance.

    Notice again that natural factors explain only "a small fraction" of the earth's ongoing energy imbalance, which is leading to heating. Indeed, the earth maintained a sizable energy imbalance even during the recent solar minimum, which was the longest and deepest solar minimum since at least the early 20th century.

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