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Thread: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global [W:478]

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    I've attempted to explain your fundamental misconceptions regarding climate models before.

    Here's something that the so-called skeptics can't seem to grasp:

    1) It is possible for a model to be accurate even when temperature trends end up not following the model projection.
    2) It is possible for a model to be inaccurate even when temperature trends end up following the model projection perfectly.

    But they don't want to discuss anything more than the bare surface. Temperature trends are running at the bottom end of the models, therefore AGW is all phony. As if that "real world" you claim to prefer is so simple.


    Hansen defined three scenarios. We are running at the CO2 increase rate most closely described by his A Scenario. I don't know what you are appealing to. He set the parameters for the assessment of the accuracy and he made the prediction.

    He and everyone else in this discipline are unable to make an accurate prediction. This does not make them evil or conspiratorial or swindlers. It only means they are not yet capable of making an accurate prediction. Why are they unable? I would hope it is because they cannot coordinate the thousands of interactions that create the climate in their models. Jansen certainly missed. He missed by plenty. We are less warm than he thought we would be if the CO2 actually decreased.

    The CO2 has increased at the rates it was increasing when he made his hunch prediction. He was wrong.

    Why do you continue to say that wrong is right?

    "HANSEN’S SCENARIOS

    The three scenarios and their predictions are defined by Hansen 1988 as follows


    “Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, …” Hansen’s predicted temperature increase, from 1988 to 2012, is 0.9 ⁰C, OVER FOUR TIMES HIGHER than the actual increase of 0.22 ⁰C.

    “scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, …” Hansen’s predicted temperature increase, from 1988 to 2012, is 0.75 ⁰C, OVER THREE TIMES HIGHER than the actual increase of 0.22 ⁰C.

    “scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000.” Hansen’s predicted temperature increase, from 1988 to 2012, is 0.29 ⁰C, ONLY 31% HIGHER than the actual increase of 0.22 ⁰C.

    So, only Scenario C, which “assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions” comes close to the truth.

    THERE HAS BEEN NO ACTUAL “CURTAILMENT OF TRACE GAS EMISSIONS”

    As everyone knows, the Mauna Loa measurements of atmospheric CO2 proves that there has NOT BEEN ANY CURTAILMENT of trace gas emissions. Indeed, the rapid increase of CO2 continues unabated."
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Manc Skipper View Post
    More BS doesn't make the previous BS any more credible.


    So you're saying that 73 subsequent wrong predictions don't make Hansen's wrong prediction more credible?
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    97% global warming consensus meets resistance from scientific denialism
    The robust climate consensus faces resistance from conspiracy theories, cherry picking, and misrepresentations

    97% global warming consensus meets resistance from scientific denialism | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | guardian.co.uk


    An impartial revue of the data and science by all of those folks who are invested in an approach that produces erroneous predictions based on faulty assumptions seems a tad suspect.

    If they are all wrong and they all agree with one another, why would this be an endorsement of any of them?

    Please produce the accurate 30 year old prediction of Global Warming that is based on AGW Science
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    What your authors omit is that more than 66% of the survey did not state on opinion which means they did not endorse the AGW Science. This gives us a bit of faith in the scientists of our age.

    However, of the 33% that did state an opinion, 97% of that small slice do endorse AGW Science. By the standards of AGW Science data, this is an accurate statement. By any rational measure of honesty, it's an outright lie. But in this particular realm, it must be considered to be accurate.

    That 97% is a Red Herring:

    Scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change

    From the 11,994 papers, 32.6 per cent endorsed AGW, 66.4 per cent stated no position on AGW, 0.7 per cent rejected AGW and in 0.3 per cent of papers, the authors said the cause of global warming was uncertain.
    You make a mistake. If the science they write about supports it, that is support. But notice the number that rejects. That's the position you hold.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    An impartial revue of the data and science by all of those folks who are invested in an approach that produces erroneous predictions based on faulty assumptions seems a tad suspect.

    If they are all wrong and they all agree with one another, why would this be an endorsement of any of them?m

    Please produce the accurate 30 year old prediction of Global Warming that is based on AGW Science
    I'll give you some readings but I doubt facts will sway you from your faith:

    Science isn’t like a house of cards, in that removing one line of evidence (eg. land surface air temperature) wouldn’t cause the whole edifice of anthropogenic global warming to collapse. Rather, “land surface warming” is one of more than ten bricks supporting “global warming”; and with global warming established, there is a whole other set of bricks supporting “anthropogenic global warming”. To undermine these conclusions, you’d need to remove most or all of the bricks supporting them – but as the evidence continues to pile up, that is becoming less and less likely.

    Evidence for global warming

    Scientific Consensus on Global Warming | Union of Concerned Scientists

    Climate Change: Evidence and Future Projections

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    An impartial revue of the data and science by all of those folks who are invested in an approach that produces erroneous predictions based on faulty assumptions seems a tad suspect.

    If they are all wrong and they all agree with one another, why would this be an endorsement of any of them?

    Please produce the accurate 30 year old prediction of Global Warming that is based on AGW Science
    More:

    ABSTRACT
    The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

    Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

    http://www.agro.uba.ar/users/fernande/Mahlman.doc


    Climate Change: Evidence

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    But it's wrong!!!


    ...This is silly. There is no argument to be made here, especially because the whole thing was discovered by people looking to substantiate their theory on global cooling. Then people did some research, figured out why the planet is warming up, and here we are today. Science marches on.
    Sic semper evello mortem Tyrannis

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    You make a mistake. If the science they write about supports it, that is support. But notice the number that rejects. That's the position you hold.

    I would imagine that there are various things that don't exist that many scientists don't bother to go on record to specifically say that they don't exist.

    By your standards of endorsement, I would suppose that about 100% of scientists agree that the land of Oz is real and exists somewhere over the rainbow. After all, they have not specifically rejected that existence, have they?

    If they have, please present that link.
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by code1211 View Post
    I would imagine that there are various things that don't exist that many scientists don't bother to go on record to specifically say that they don't exist.

    By your standards of endorsement, I would suppose that about 100% of scientists agree that the land of Oz is real and exists somewhere over the rainbow. After all, they have not specifically rejected that existence, have they?

    If they have, please present that link.
    Not remotely what I said. I can only suggest you read it again and try to answer what was actually said.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Report shows UN admitting solar activity may play significant role in global warm

    Quote Originally Posted by Boo Radley View Post
    I'll give you some readings but I doubt facts will sway you from your faith:

    Science isn’t like a house of cards, in that removing one line of evidence (eg. land surface air temperature) wouldn’t cause the whole edifice of anthropogenic global warming to collapse. Rather, “land surface warming” is one of more than ten bricks supporting “global warming”; and with global warming established, there is a whole other set of bricks supporting “anthropogenic global warming”. To undermine these conclusions, you’d need to remove most or all of the bricks supporting them – but as the evidence continues to pile up, that is becoming less and less likely.

    Evidence for global warming

    Scientific Consensus on Global Warming | Union of Concerned Scientists

    Climate Change: Evidence and Future Projections


    Your assessment of the scientific method is wrong. Einstein said:

    No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong.

    Albert Einstein


    Read more at No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong. - Albert Einstein at BrainyQuote

    To prove that Anthropogenic global warming is right and that it actually exists, ALL of the proofs must be right. To create and maintain doubt, only one. The fact that the ongoing research exposes the lack of understanding by the science community shows more than anything else that they don't have the goods.

    There are far more than one plank to cause doubt. As an example, if CO2 is the prime driver of warming, then this should be easily proven and beyond that, the exact contribution to warming by the 50 so discreet causers of warming should be definable and should be understood, quantifiable and documented. Please produce the link that does this.

    I'll provide the 50 or so causers of warming for you to help you with your research:

    http://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a...5c9415b970b-pi
    I am not of the mind that a man is either of science or of religion. At his best and his worst, man exists in the misty glimmering where the falling angel meets the rising ape. That he chooses a direction from that point defines him as human.

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